Recession Resistant Cities

Recently, Forbes magazine did its survey of the ten most "recession proof" cities. I didn't like the term "proof" and softened it with "resistant," because a bad turn in the economy could change everything. I love Forbes and lists like this and was particularly delightful with its choices.

So what are the top ten?

Number 10, Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas. Get used to seeing Texas, it is one of only two states that has more than one city on the list and it enjoys four cities at that. With median home prices up 5 percent, unemployment at a paltry 4.3 percent, and a 5.6 percent increase in jobs in the crucial education and health care areas, DFW is looking pretty.

Number 9, Charlotte, NC. Median home prices are up 3.3 percent, unemployment is a modest 5.4 percent, and there has been an increase of more than 4 percent in the growth of professional, business services, leisure, and hospitality. Obviously a strong city, but some numbers (like unemployment) are going in the wrong direction (up from 4.7 percent since last year). Why wasn't DFW above this?

Number 8, Seattle, WA. The "emerald city" enjoys a median home price up 1.2%, unemployment at 4.3 percent, and employment growth in leisure and hospitality, 4.1%; manufacturing, 2.6%.

Number 7, Houston, TX. I would make it higher on the list, but I am also the poster boy for the city's chamber of commerce. Median home prices are up 1.1 percent, unemployment: 4.2% (acutally less than last year from 4.5%), and key job growth areas that include natural resources, 5.9% and construction, 4.7%.

Number 6, Salt Lake City, UT. Median home prices are up 2.5%, unemployment is a remarkably low 3.1 percent (slightly higher than last year), and key growth areas of education and health services (both up 5.5%).

Number 5, Raleigh, NC. Median home price is up 4%, Unemployment is a low 4.2% (from 3.7%), and their key growth includes rofessional and business Services, +7.4%; education and health, +6%.

Number 4, San Jose, CA. This one made me scratch my heads! Most of California is being taxed and regulated into oblivion, so this is a healthy exception. How healthy? Median home prices are still going up, way up to 11.2%, unemployment is a healthy 5.2% (from 4.7%). and it's
key growth area is in Information is up 4.5%.

Number 3, Austin, TX. Median home prices are up a vigorous 6.4%, unemployment is an extremely low 3.6% (from 3.8%), and the key growth areas are natural resources and construction, 5.1%; and leisure and hospitality, 5.3%

Number 2, San Antonio, TX. Texas' number one city according to Forbes enjoys a median home price increase of up 7.9%, unemployment at 4% (from 4.3%), and key growth areas include construction, 6.3%; and leisure and hospitality, +4.9%.

When I do articles such as this I feel like a disc jokey, and you can almost hear the drumb roll and wild deep voice with "NUMBER ONE..."

Oklahoma City. This is interesting and maybe even a little disappointing. It is linked almost entirely to energy and includes the following numbers: Unemployment: 3.5% (from 4.7% in February 2007) and key growth areas in leisure and hospitality, +6%; construction +11.5% from 2007.

Interesting choices, all largely accurate in my opinion (although I could disagree here and there). All of them are in the West and South and they are also among the fastest growing areas in population in the country. I can speak from personal experience that Houston can absorb more people.

Most of the cities rest comfortably in states with very pro-growth economic policies. They tend to be Right-to-Work, less regulatory, pro growth tax focus, etc. San Jose is about the only one on the list that doesn't have such an approach. How can other states become "recession resistant?" By implementing similar policies as most of the states on this list.

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Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Fast Cities Continued

In my last post I reviewed Fast Company's comments on the fast cities and reviewed several categories. In this post that review continues with a look at "Urban Innovators," "Culture Centers," "Unexpected Oases," and "Startup Hubs."

In the "Urban Innovators" section we find "Salt Lake City" as the only US representative of the list. Salt Lake City, urban? Yes, it is a city, but as a person who grew up next to 10 Mile near Detroit, I have a very difficult time considering a city like Salt Lake, an urban area. It doesn't have the social or economic demographics pervasive in most large cities. When I think of Urban innovators, I have a hard time not seeing Houston on such a list. This town was largely dead two decades ago and after several years has brought entertainment into the downtown areas to encourage night life and the conversion of old buildings into popular and successful lofts, Houston is one of the nation's most vital cities. It has incredible opportunities, it is a great place for entrepreneurs, and enjoys low unemployment.

When it comes to "Culture Centers," we find Miami, Florida making the cut from the US among the three cities cited. I'm sorry, but my first exposure to Miami was Miami Vice (the TV series), so I have a very difficult time seeing it outside that prism. I'll have to take their word for it.

No US Cities made it to the "Unexpected Oases" categories. I would think that with all that water that Miami would make the cut, but... Oh well. Instead cities like Dubai, Istanbul, and Sydney. Istanbul...Turkey (see video)? My primary exposure to Turkey was the movie Midnight Express (starring Brad Davis). Enough said.

Finally, there are the "Startup Hubs" that feature Austin, TX; Tuscon, AZ; and Madison, WI. This might surprise you, but I have no argument here. They are all noted for being cutting edge in entrepreneurship.

I have been a little rough on Fast Company's choices because they seem so predictable and so political. The choices were "sexy," "diverse," and "surprising." But are they accurate? I would have produced a different list. That will have to be done on a later post.