Obama's Mentors included Hoover, as well as FDR

Calvin Coolidge oversaw one of the greatest expansions in the history of the US economy. When Coolidge took office, he believed tax rates were too high. With top rates at over 70% following World War I and facing a protracted recession, Coolidge believed it was time to take serious actions. The combined top marginal normal and surtax rate fell from 73 percent to 58 percent in 1922, and then to 50 percent in 1923 (for incomes over $200,000). In 1924, the top tax rate fell to 46 percent (for incomes over $500,000). The top rate was just 25 percent (for incomes over $100,000) from 1925 to 1928, and then fell to 24 percent in 1929.

The reduction in tax rates fueled the productivity engine of the US during these years, leading to inflation rates below 2 percent, unemployment below four percent, and the number of people who made over $100,000 a year actually quadrupling over his years in office. In addition to leading to economic expansion, these policies led to a dramatic increase in tax revenue. I call it the "Wal-Mart Principle" of taxation. Charge as little as possible per item (or activity) and you will make more than any of your competitors in your profits. Low tax rates lead to much greater economic activity and a huge increase in revenue.

Many historians perceived Coolidge's successor, Herbert Hoover, as one who continued his predecessors limited government policies. Coolidge was actually quite critical of Hoover, stating "That man has given me nothing but advice, and all of it bad." Hoover actually pursued several policies that remind one of Barack Obama, not Calvin Coolidge.

In fact, Hoover turned the depression into a "Great" one through several, government interventionist, policies:

• Supporting artificially high wages. When unemployment reaches approximately 25 percent, your objective should be eliminating the barriers between people and jobs. Wages are a huge barrier to employment The Hoover Administration pressured businesses to keep wages high and prices low. The Secretary of Labor at the time, James Davis said "There never has been a crisis such as we have had as the stock market crash that threw...millions out of employment that there wasn't a wholesale reduction in wages...If Hoover accomplishes nothing more in all of his service to the government, that one outstanding thing of his administration -- no reduction in wages -- will be a credit that will be forever remembered not by the working classes alone but by business men as well, because without money in the pay envelope business is the first to suffer" (The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal, by Robert P. Murphy, Ph.D.). What a legacy, backing a policy that forced widespread unemployment.


• Undermining international trade. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 unleashed a chain of events that was seen first in the stock market crash of that year and crippled any efforts towards recovery for years to come. The tariff act put a huge cost on all goods coming into the United States. Investors on Wall Street knew that this would lead to retaliation and would greatly devalue the companies and the stock that represents them. This led to massive sock selling and lit the fuse to the depression. It took until the 1940s before the barriers finally began to fall and economy recover.

In addition, Hoover raised taxes to levels not seen since Coolidge took office (when the country was in an other recession) and he implemented domestic programs that were precursors of the New Deal (including subsidies and loans similar to what we see today).

In the end, Hoover was a big government proponent who sounded similar to Barack Obama today. At the Republican National Convention of 1932, Herbert Hoover stated, when receiving his party's nomination that "We might have done nothing. That would have been utter ruin. Instead we met the situation with proposals to private business and to Congress of the most gigantic program of economic defense and counterattack ever evolved in the history of the Republic. We put it into action." I'm sure advocates of free markets at the time find themselves asking, "how's that change working for you?" The differences between FDR and Hoover were simply in the scope of their activities, not in their nature. They both believed in massive government and they both failed miserably, placing this country into a decade and a half of despair. Obama is taking the US on a similar course and on a fast track that would be the envy of Hoover or FDR. We need to go back to what works -- less government and not more. We need to create a predictable economic environment that can only be created through less taxes and regulations. It is obvious that we need freedom and not government expansion.

Kevin Price is a syndicated columnist whose articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media. Kevin Price is also host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650). Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Trade Deficit Shrinks, but no Parades?

The balance of trade -- the amount of goods imported versus goods exported -- has been a tool used by those who are shallow in their economic knowledge and deep in their isolationism. We are told by many politicians that trade deficits (importing more than we export) is a "terrible" thing and an indicator of an economy in decline. As a result of decades of trade deficits, the US is a "debtor" nation, we are told.

So the headlines at CNNMoney this morning should be good news: "Trade Gap Narrows for 2nd Straight Year." This narrowing is because the amount of goods we are importing each year is declining. Yet, this "good news" accompanies headlines of the fastest and largest increase in unemployment in decades (500,000 just since the elections). There are few, if any, who would argue that this economy is anything but weak and has been in a downward spiral for about two years (about the same period for which the gap has decreased). This reality should not be a surprise to any student of history.

In 1928 Republican Herbert Hoover was running for President of the United States against Democrat Al Smith of New York. Hoover, the Secretary of Commerce under one of the most successful Presidents in US history, was running against a very popular governor. It was easy for Hoover to defend the record of the President he served, Calvin Coolidge, as virtually every indicator pointed to an administration of success.

During the 20s Republicans took a tax rate that was as high as 70 percent under their predecessor and lowered the top rate to a low of 5 percent. Coolidge opened economic trade with countries and unleashed a level of prosperity we had not seen in generations. The number of people who made six digits (a very high income in the 1920s, and still is today) quadrupled. Inflation was less than 2 percent and unemployment was at a comparable amount. They called it the "Roaring Twenties" for a reason. There was, however, one area of "weakness" following Coolidge and that was the trade deficit that exploded during his administration. This area feel under the Secretary of Commerce and Hoover was taunted by his opponent through out the race. Finally Hoover assured voters that if Smith or he were elected, there would be quotas and tariffs placed on trade. Hoover won and by the Fall of 1929, he was sticking to his guns and pursuing protectionism in the form of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

That law did exactly what it intended to do -- dramatically reduce the importation of goods. Within a few years, the US had its first trade surplus in decades and also one of the highest unemployment rates in history. The Stock Market crash that proceeded the Depression was fueled by this trade protectionism. Wall Street knew that, if we penalized imports, foreign countries would retaliate. That led to the Market crash because investors knew that the value of goods would decline as the trade markets would shrink.

The high unemployment rate was associated with the trade surplus for a very simple reason. We imported more goods than we exported because our buying power had declined dramatically. Through out our nation's history over the last century, our periods of highest prosperity were accompanied by eras of trade deficits. Meanwhile, trade surpluses accompanied economic decline. In our prosperity we were buying more.

Today, the trade deficit is shrinking because the economy is shrinking. Our national buying power is in decline. Trade deficits continue to indicate a sign of economic strength, rather than weakness.

Kevin Price is a syndicated columnist whose articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media. Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

John McCain Can't Win?

I know, it is a little early. After all, Barack Obama just wrapped up his party's nod in the last week or so. But, it appears that John McCain should be doing the finishing touches on his concession speech right about now. At least that is the conclusion of many Presidential Historians.

The story has been running in Yahoo, AOL News, and many other media and the sources are made up of authorities on both the Left and the Right. On the positive side of the articles, they seem to be thoughtful and serious in the analysis. There is none of the teenager, "Obama is so cute" or "charismatic", or "the neatest thing since slice bread." It seems to be based on political realities.

From the Yahoo article: “This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

In spite of Lichtman's history of accuracy, some of the comparisons between McCain and other failed candidates fall clearly in the realm of hyperbole. Even his comments that show McCain "on par" with Jimmy Carter is a bit too much for me. Jimmy Carter's economic performance was so bad that it helped lead a term used to describe under performing European economies to become a part of the US vernacular. "Stagflation," which is the combination of high inflation and high unemployment, became a notable part of the US economy in the 1970s. This is, after all, Bush's economy and that economy is no comparison to what Reagan inherited in 1980.

"Several," according to the article "saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932." Give me a break. McCain's prospects are worse than the one for a man who had 25 percent unemployment? It is this kind of melodrama that makes it difficult to value the analysis. It is outlandish.

I believe that many of the assumptions about Obama are based on the Pre-primary Presidential candidate. Before the Rev. Wright incidences, the Michelle Obama comments, and the difficulty he has in remembering family history. I believe that if the members of his party knew in January what they know today, they would be wondering what the "First Man" would be wearing at his wife's inauguration. Most of the historians quoted and referred to in these news stories are known for a liberal bent. I think that they may be far more "optimistic" than realistic in their assessment.

According to recent surveys on marketing, most advertising attracts sellers (others who want you to buy more ads) and not buyers. Do you want to know why? Email info@HoustonBusinessShow.com and put "marketing audio" in the subject line and we will get it to you.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.