2008 Elections: Confessions of Small Business Owners

With the time left in this campaign reflected better in hours than days, it will be interesting to see the total reach of an Obama presidency and Democrat control of both Houses of Congress. Every day, when I go on the air or view my email, small business owners are horrified by what this country will be like under a new administration. A fellow host of another radio show at my station told me that they have already identified who they will layoff if Obama wins. They will likely give them the walking papers before the week is over.

Each month, I give several speeches and people quietly whisper to me that "there is no way my business can survive Obama, I am thinking of selling before the election." Time has run out for many of these individuals, but there appears to be a great deal of doom and gloom in the works if Obama and company wins the day.

Recently, Barack Obama has gotten extremely specific about what he would do if elected. In a new TV commercial, the Illinois Senator said he intends to both "penalize" companies that export jobs over sea and provide a tax increase for the top 5 percent. So much for the old saying that "you can't help America's poor by making America poor." Obama seems more than willing to try such a policy. When Herbert Hoover raised taxes in the early days of the recession of 1929, we slipped into a depression. Obama intends to use the Hoover approach as a road map.

Meanwhile, instead of asking the question as to why jobs are being exported to other parts of the world, Obama prefers to penalize business owners who are looking out for their natural self interest. US Businesses are in the business of making money. Obama's plan will force those companies that are still corporately located here to simply move entirely overseas. That will help America's poor?

I go back to my mantra. Business don't pay taxes, they are tax collectors. If the cost of taxes on corporations are too high for them to collect and still stay competitive, they will move from the United States. We don't want to compete with developing countries by making labor cheap, but we can compete by cutting taxes. Business taxes are used by cowards in politics who are afraid to tax voters directly. Meanwhile, those taxes harm business and jobs. We need to cut taxes on job creators.

Businesses are telling me they are not "like sheep." They are ready to take care of their families and businesses. They will take the necessary actions to fend off the policies supported by Obama. Unfortunately, the middle class and working poor will be the ones who will suffer most from those actions. But don't blame the businesses, blame the policy makers who forced such choices.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Obama Concerned About Surprises

According to the vast majority of the polls, this election is over and in spite of my own personal preferences, if I was forced to bet money, I would have to place my money on Mr. Obama. However, many (including the Obama campaign) are not yet ready to call this election in the bag and for several good reasons:

• The poll that was by far the most accurate in the 2004 election was by Investors Business Daily. In this election, they have McCain and Obama within two percentage points, well within the margin of error.


• The huge number of undecided, (most surveys have it at 8 percent) is a great concern to Obama. This late in the game, there should be virtually no undecided. When there are, they tend to vote against a candidate rather than for one. In light of the numerous issues being raised about Obama these last few days, most pundits (including Democrats) are projecting the majority of undecided to favor McCain.


• The way polling is done favors Democrat candidates. This includes many media polls that resemble "push questions" that candidates use (where they favor one candidate over another) and the fact polls tend to favor registered Democrats in their surveys. Furthermore, every poll is done on land lines only, when many of the most affluent don't even have such phones.


• Many have said that, with this being the largest turn out in history, the odds are in favor of Obama. They said the same about John Kerry in '04 when that campaign broke record numbers, and Bush won.

The Democrats clearly see this race must be contended. Historically, true front runners have spent the last two days doing photo ops. Barack Obama still sounds like an under dog on the stump and is doing serious campaigning through election day. This proves one very important fact -- the only poll that really matters is the vote people actually cast.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Job Creators Cast Their Votes

CEO Magazine, a leading publication of the nation's business leaders, has recently done a survey of the nation's Chief Executive Officers about the up coming race for the White House. The survey did an assessment of their view of how Barack Obama and John McCain would help the country's economy and support job creation.

The results weren't even close. Eighty percent of all participants voted for John McCain over Barack Obama. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Barack Obama keeps talking about "tax cuts" for 95% of the economy and only the top 5 percent will be saddled with a tax increase. CEOs know, however, that half of that 95 percent don't pay any taxes and that five percent group pays far more than any other sector. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reports "As it happens, the top fifth of earners currently pay 67% of all federal taxes -- including not just income taxes, but payroll taxes, corporate taxes and death taxes. The top 1% of earners pay 26% of all federal taxes." In other words, the economics simply does not add up.

But the issues covered by the survey are not limited to taxes. The publication's report card breaks down policies to include energy, economic and fiscal policy, foreign policy, defense, environmental, education, tax, and health care. The over all grade for Obama was C- and the grade for McCain was B-. Neither candidate scored an A, but Obama scored Ds while McCain's lowest grade was a C.

Obama's biggest weaknesses according to the survey are economic and fiscal policy, foreign policy, defense, and (as seen before) taxes. CEOs believe that Obama's policies would put significant upward pressure on spending, his lack of experience will find the US in conflicts that could undermine economic stability, there are similar concerns about defense policy, and we have already seen the business view of Obama's tax policies.

McCain's lowest grades were in energy, the environment, education, and health care. McCain is very new to being serious about pursuing domestic drilling (which is the fastes way towards lowering prices), furthermore he is one of the most ardent supporters of extreme environmentalism (which make businesses concerned about the economic impact). Furthermore, most business leaders have long felt that policy makers don't understand the educational demands of America. This includes McCain. Finally, business has been rightly concerned about the impact of proposed health care policies on the economy. In this, McCain's policies raise many questions (especially the taxing of benefits).

So what about the 20 percent that would vote for Obama over McCain? I would assume they are part of the group of leaders representing mega businesses that have consistently supported Democrats because their companies can afford to do so and often see government as a means of regulating their competitors out of business.

What is most interesting about the article is that the focus is on job creation more than any other area. People can talk about helping the middle class all they want, but there is no better benefit to anyone than opportunity created through job creation.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Understanding the Stock Market Following the Bailout

Today it appears that the market has capitulated. Investors believe that the market has hit bottom and it is time to rebuild and to buy and is in the 9,000 points area and moving upwards. But people want to know, does this relate to the bank bailout? Why did the market perform so poorly immediately after the bill passed in Congress? Are we about to see the light at the end of the tunnel?

I suggested on my radio show that the market would probably stop its free fall in the low 8,000s and that appears to be the case. But, I have also suggested that this event wouldn't necessarily signify anything more than Wall Street catching its breath. Yes, it could mean it begins its mending process (as seen with the market up around 500 points at this writing), but it could be a short term euphoria from European and Asian markets that responded more favorably than expected over night or just a strong desire to give itself a break from the drama. In other words, the market is being driven by emotions at this time more than anything else and interpreting what is happening is no small task.

Here are a few observations about the current market landscape:

• Members of Congress supported the spending of more than $800 billion to bailout financial institutions with much of the specifics of how it would be spent to be determined later (Obama and McCain each have very different approaches). This approach raises as many concerns as it placates.


• The amount proposed, $800 billion plus, was pulled completely out of the year. A high level Department of Treasury official said that this figure was chosen because it "needed to be real high." They had no idea how much was needed, because they weren't sure how it would be fully implemented. Again, this has raised more market concerns.
  
• Much of the drama surrounding this event -- most recently seen in the emergency meeting of members of the G7 -- is a mixed bag that could end up heightening fears rather than calming them. On the other hand, because of the interdependence of the international financial markets, some are seeing such an approach is crucial in getting back to normal.

In addition to the financial issues, there are the political aspects. Many in the media are treating Presidential candidate John McCain as if he were among the "walking dead." Wall Street believes that the economic future of this country is in better hands under McCain than Obama. Is McCain's chances begin to decline, I project a continued drop in the stock market.

So are we on the rebound? I certainly hope so, but smart investors are going to find themselves taking a "one day at a time" approach to their investing.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Questioning the Constitutionality of the Senate Bailout Bill

I hate to bore the Congress with details, but there is a little passage in the US Constitution that could very well haunt the Legislative Branch if the House of Representatives passes the Senate bailout bill. Article I, Section 7 of the United States Constitution states that "All bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with amendments as on other Bills. " Simply put, the bailout package had to come from the House and the one that Congress is now considering is therefore, unconstitutional.

Modern practitioners of political science are dismissive of requirements such as this. They argue that, "this is a formality" or "a mere question of protocol," but has nothing to do with the substance of the Constitution. Reality? It has everything to do with the substance.

When the Founding Fathers developed our Constitution, they wanted the Legislative Branch to be broken into two Houses for reasons in addition to making sure large states and small states had fair representation. They also wanted to make sure that the government would be extremely deliberative about making changes in law. The US House of Representatives are up for reelection every two years and typically represent smaller populations than the Senate. They are closer to the people than the US Senate which faces reelection in six year cycles (and only approximately one-third at a time). This means the Senate can afford to take risks that the US House cannot usually take.

Proof is in the pudding. The US House took on this bailout bill earlier this week and voted against it. That bill was dead and a new bill needed to be created. According to the US Constitution, that begins in the US House. Instead the Congress is being driven by expediency instead of rule of law and they started from scratch (adding $100 billion more in the process) in the Senate where it passed in a body where many of the members have four years before they face reelection. That bill is now in the House and those members are now being told by the upper body to "jump in, the water is great."

Senators should have voted against the bill because of its unconstitutionality. US House members should now do the same, regardless of the merits of the bill itself (which are few, considering the costs). Unfortunately, discussions about constitutionality are relegated to law schools and not where laws are created. However, this cloud could follow these members to their reelection efforts or maybe all the way to the US Supreme Court.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Sarah Palin's Recent Interviews Lead to "Buyer's Remorse"

According to the New York Times, GOP Vice President nominee Sarah Palin's recent interview with Katie Couric on CBS had only a modest effect on the ratings. Unfortunately, that is the good news for Palin and her supporters. The fewer who watched it, the better. The New York times notes: "Still, the “CBS Evening News” gained only about 10 percent in audience from the previous week — and it was actually down from the same week the year before. The newscast averaged just under 6 million viewers for the week, up from 5.44 million the previous week. A year ago Ms. Couric’s program drew about 6.2 million viewers. (CBS was also a distant third last week behind ABC, which won with 8.07 million viewers, and NBC, with 7.98 million.)"

I have not seen the interview in its entirety, but what I have seen has not been pretty. Palin cannot specifically point out examples of McCain as a reformer? She does not know what the "Bush Doctrine" is? She can't name specific magazines that she likes to read? Not a single one? Early on the criticism towards Palin was darn right unfair and ugly. But when it comes to policy and how she prepares for governing, anything is fair game in my opinion. The questions Couric asked are fair game.

I have been one of the most enthusiastic supporters of Sarah Palin out there and still believe she brings the values and convictions that many Americans are looking for in a leader. She is charismatic and as a woman, excites voters in a way the GOP greatly needs. But Palin is going to be a heart beat away from the Presidency and will be serving under a man who is the oldest to be elected to that position in his first term. I believe many Americans, not just the critics in journalism, need to see Palin take it up a notch when it comes to her performance in interviews. She is an excellent speech maker, but has been less than impressive "on her feet."

In many respects, she is like Sen. Barack Obama. She is less experienced than any of us would prefer, she has a difficult time in impromptu situations, and she lacks significant foreign policy knowledge. Since Obama is running for the number one job and Palin the VP post, that makes the Alaska governor a safer bet since she will have time to grow. Obama's inexperience running for President makes him a complete disaster, in my opinion. But I, too, am beginning to be a little concerned about this historic choice for VP.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

What Happened to the Democrats?

A few weeks ago November was expected to be a bloodbath for Republicans. Republican members of Congress were choosing to retire rather than face extinction, recruiting new candidates was becoming a nightmare for the GOP, and historians were predicting the biggest landslide victory for the Democrats pursuit of the White House since 1984. On that year, Ronald Reagan won every state except Minnesota, the home of the Democrat nominee. Now, John McCain has a slight lead by virtually every major poll.

So what happened to the Democrats?

Barack Obama. The Democrats have faced buyers remorse ever since they bought into an Obama candidacy. Increasingly it is becoming clear that, if Democrats knew in January what they know now it is highly unlikely he would be their nominee. Reverend Wright’s rampages on the horrors of America, Michelle Obama believing the US is fundamentally “mean,” Barack Obama’s love for everything European and fundamentally low view of those things that make up common America.

Energy. Americans have always had this view that they would never tolerate the ridiculously high gas prices common in Europe, but we have been doing exact that. Furthermore, Democrats have indicated that those prices are a good thing. They believe we Americans are mere addicts and need to be cut off from our supplies and force to conserve. They are more frightened about drilling more here and now than being dependent on countries that sponsor terrorism. In other words, their energy solutions blame Americans when they should blame the policy makers. That is what Republicans have been doing as they occupy an empty House of Representatives and teach Democrats lessons in energy economics. That is what McCain has done in choosing Sarah Palin (the government of Alaska which is home to our best source of domestic drilling). Energy is serving as a huge divider between Democratic candidates and voters.

International affairs. When Russia attacks one of our strongest allies in Eastern Europe, Barack Obama calls for “restraint” on both sides and says that the UN Security Council should handle it. Of course, Russia is a member of that Security Council and has veto power, making it toothless in dealing with Russia. It is these kind of foreign policy gaffes that are making Obama look unprepared verses McCain who looked extremely Presidential as he denounced Russia and said that the US should take reasoned but unilateral action.

Sarah Palin. Palin is arguably the most strategic choice for VP I have ever seen and I have been watching Presidential politics closely since the 1970s. She accentuates Republicans best issue (energy), she electrifies women voters who are angry over the treatment of Hillary Clinton, she is more Conservative than the rank and file could hope for (bringing many of those disenfranchised voters back to the fold), and she is obviously a very savvy campaigner.

A few months ago Republicans looked destined to suffer further loses in both Houses of Congress as well as the White House. I believe the Democrats have their work cut out for them when it comes to the Presidency and we could all be surprised by the make up of the Congress.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Poll Show Obama Wins by a Landslide

It's true that McCain and Palin should probably give up. Obama wins by a landslide. This is the story from BBC of a survey of the 22 countries they provide news service to. That list includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Panama, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Turkey, the UAE, Britain and the United States. Unfortunately for Obama, the United States is in the survey, but on its own now leans slightly towards McCain (at the time this was written). Also unfortunate for Obama, it is the only country that matters.

Here are a few results from the survey:

* At the time of the poll, all the countries surveyed wanted Obama over McCain. Again, the results have changed recently where it matters, with US surveys showing a dead heat or a slight lead for McCain.

* 17 of 22 countries expect improvements in US relations with the rest of the world under Obama.

* America's NATO allies and Australia were most optimistic about what an Obama Administration would do for US relations (61 percent).

The reasons for such results outside of the US may be attributed to several different reasons. He is the least American (in the traditional sense of the word) of any candidate in our country's history. Even he has discussed the contrasts between him and other Presidents (a tactic that has backfired). For quite some time the non-US world has often been hostile to Americans. Furthermore, he tends to demonstrate an elitism that is common among European politicians, but doesn't resonate very well in this country. His recent remarks about the inability of most Americans to speak any French may have went over well in Europe, but angered people here who wonder why he is concerned about our French, but not about the huge foreign population here that doesn't know English. It is that some what strange incongruity that has many here less excited than those around the planet.

Than there is the bad news for Obama found in the results. In addition to the fact that his weakest level of support is in the only place where surveys such as this matter, Obama isn't the only candidate to have had similar favor and less than satisfactory results. ABC notes that "a similar BBC/Globescan poll conducted ahead of the 2004 U.S presidential election found that, of 35 countries polled, 30 would have preferred to see Democratic nominee John Kerry, rather than the incumbent George Bush, who was elected." Isn't there a famous statement to the effect of "what does it profit a man to gain the whole world but lose the Electoral College?" It is something like that.

Kevin Price accurately predicted that Joe Biden would be the VP candidate of Obama three days before the announcement. He predicted a woman would be McCain's VP days before as well. Get his commentaries in your email box by contacting Info@HoustonBusinessShow.com.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Why Obama is Offended by Palin

It is a classic example of "bait and hook." John McCain has brilliantly chosen a Vice Presidential candidate who begs the question of experience. I know, that seems contrary to conventional wisdom, but I believe that it has huge strategic value to McCain's chances of getting elected President.

Palin's relatively thin experience for such a high office creates a huge temptation for the Democrats to go on the attack. However, it is the type of temptation that they can't afford to give in to. McCain knows it and, thus the choice.

* If Obama/Biden attacks Pailin too harshly on any grounds, it will garner the Republican a huge amount of sympathy from people who are tired of seeing female candidates getting mugged. Wounds from the Clinton race are still fresh in the minds of many.

* The media has already made people sensitive about the criticism that Sarah Palin might receive. Ridiculous questions that journalists would have asked during the time of "Leave it to Beaver" and "I Love Lucy" -- about a "woman's place is at home" has everyone on the left and right up in arms. This alone should have the Democrats proceed with extreme caution.

* The biggest reason Obama shouldn't bite into the temptation is because her experience is actually more substantive (includes executive power) than the Democrat's nominee. This is also why Obama is so offended that Sarah Palin was chosen.

Obama is, without question, the least experienced candidate to receive a major party's nomination for President. Obama likes to talk about the youthful John F. Kennedy and his staff enjoys the comparison. But Kennedy was a man who was "tempered by war" and an actual hero in his own right. Furthermore, he had six years of experience in the US House and a full term in the US Senate. Obmama does not want to beg that type of comparison. Obama's complete national legislative experience is less than Kennedy's in the Senate.

Obama's reaction and his inability to avoid the temptation to attack is rooted into the same reasons why he and his team reacted to the controversial New Yorker magazine cover. You remember it. The cartoon that characterized Obama and his wife as Muslim radicals who are trying to overthrow our freedoms and disregard our traditions. Was it inflammatory? Of course, just like the same magazine implied that George Bush and Dick Cheney had a "Brokeback Mountain" relationship. The publication assumed that no one would take it seriously. Obama did because it hits too close to home.

The appointment of Palin works in a similar fashion. "How dear the Republican's dismiss me by choosing such an inexperienced VP?" is the cry from Obama. You can almost hear it when he talks. The sad thing for Obama is that Palin's executive experience makes her better poised to take the chief executive spot than Obama. That is why the Democrats should avoid attack in this area. My instincts tell me they won't take that advice.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters. Subscribe to his newsletter here.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

Palin is the Poster Child of America

I am watching Sarah Palin as she introduces her beautiful family to the Republican National Convention and I was struck by how much she and her loved ones are so much like the rest of us. She is a woman from a small town who became the mayor of that city. Later she went on to become the governor of the state that town is in.

* Among her five children, she has a child with Down Syndrome and had to make a life changing decision and she seems rightly proud and happy with that choice.

* She has a daughter who, at the age of 17, became pregnant and made the choice to keep it (and to marry the child's father).

* She has a son in the Army who is about to be deployed to Iraq and a nephew who is already in the Navy is in the Persian Gulf.

* She has a husband who is a member of a union. That husband exercised bad judgement some two decades ago and got a DWI. He has clearly rehabilitated himself.

* She was a runner up for Miss Alaska and being a young forty something, you can still see that beauty.

Then there are things that make her decidedly unique.

* This tough minded "hockey mom" use to play strong on the ice and her attitude that made her feared on the rink is seen in the way she legislates.

* She is a life time member of the National Rifle Association and can handle a gun quite well. Enemies beware.

* She brought down a political machine in Alaska that had a governor (of her own party) enjoying a luxury private plane, personal chef, and a limo (with a driver). She prefers to drive herself, sold the airplane (rumor has it on eBay), and the family prepares their own meals. For this tough minded governor, financial responsibility in government begins at home.

* She is plain spoken and clear. She doesn't "hedge her bets" with rhetoric to amass as many votes as possible. With Palin, what you see is what you get.

It is this "known factor", seen in both McCain and Palin that you never see from Obama and Biden. The Democratic ticket changes their messages to accommodate the audience they are addressing and they provide a dangerous shell game of which we won't see the results until after November. The stakes are too great for such a choice. We need this poster child for our Republic on a Presidential ticket. I think millions of other Americans will come to a similar conclusion upon watching Palin speak.

McCain Makes His Choice for VP

Days before the official announcement I predicted that Barack Obama would choose Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware as his running mate. The article enjoyed a great deal of traction outside of my blog and now I am getting pressure to do it again when it comes to John McCain. This may not be as easy.

Picking Barack Obama's choice was relatively easy because his weaknesses are so obvious (and Biden was a great balance to them), he is very predictable and actually resistant to change (and the Delaware Senator is very "safe"), and Obama is perceived as an elitist by many because of his Pro-Europe rhetoric and statements viewed as anti-American by many, plus his $4.5 million in income last year alone (Biden, on the other hand, is considered one of the poorest members of the Senate).

So who will McCain choose? We hear about former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal as Conservative favorites. But Romney does not have a history of conservatism to make anyone on the Right comfortable and Jindal has been very clear that he doesn't want the job. It is too bad, because Jindal is young, very conservative, and being of Indian descent, he could certainly bring some excitement to the ticket in terms of making history. Another commonly mentioned "safe choice" is Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Recently the chatter has been very strong in his direction, but few can cite what he can bring to the ticket.

Then there are the "bold" choices. These include Sen. Joseph Liberman, Secretary of State Condi Rice, and former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Many believe that although none of these choices are very conservative, they are the kind of candidates who could pull votes from the Democrats while the rank and file Republicans will overlook their lack of right wing credentials because of their concerns over Obama.

One of the latest ones being mentioned and is quickly rising is Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX). Although considered a moderate, she is one of the more conservative females in either Houses of Congress. In fact, she voted the GOP position 89 percent of the time. She brings the female appeal that could attract many disenchanted Hillary Democrats, yet she doesn't scare off traditional Republicans. Another often mentioned female is Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. She is solidly conservative and knows about energy. She would certainly defend the domestic drilling case being pushed by Republicans.

In my Obama/Biden piece I was a little bold. I said it was going to be Biden. Period. I am going to hedge my bets a little and name the top four. However, I will stick my neck out there and place them in the order of likelihood.

Number four on the list is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. I don't believe this a "good" choice by any measure. Yes he is attractive and articulate, but he can't bring in the voters and he became a conservative too late in life for the comfort of most. Furthermore, the Democrats will have a field day providing film footage of the bitter fighting Romney and McCain had in the primaries.

Number three is Condi Rice. She may very well be the best choice. It is true that she is largely unknown when it comes to domestic policy, but she is solid in many national security areas. Furthermore, she is an African-American woman. That covers many voters who are interested in history. The down side is that she and McCain are both considered foreign policy experts. Someone with domestic policy strength could help the ticket.

Number two on the list is Gov. Bobby Jindal. You never know, he might even accept it from a hurricane center in his state, showing "hands on" leadership. Jindal, more than any other candidate in my opinion, combines a bold move for independents and comfort for the conservative base that is crucial in getting Republicans elected.

Candidate number one and the one I believe McCain is going to choose is Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas. She has fifteen years of experience in the Senate, and a substantial voting record that people could judge (it is moderate-conservative), she is a woman (which will help attract disgruntled Hillary supporters), and she is from the South (crucial for the GOP to win elections).

In the end, this is what I am expecting and not hoping. Jindal would be my choice, if I could call it. But Hutchinson could very well be the right compliment, at this time, to get McCain elected.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters. Subscribe to his newsletter here.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

Michelle Obama's Performance

On Monday night Michelle Obama took center stage in Denver, Colorado and tried to present a different and softer image from what voters had gotten use to. Furthermore, she tried to convey some specific messages to persuade voters going into November that Obama is their man. The reviews as to whether she achieved such objectives, thus far, have been mixed at best.

Democrat strategist James Carville had little good to say about the convention, saying “Well, if this party has a message it has done a hell of a job of hiding it tonight I promise you that,” Carville said on CNN Monday night. “Right now like I say we are playing hide the message pretty good.”

Michelle Obama has described the US as "mean" and, until her husband enjoyed national electoral success, she wasn't very proud of it. One of her main objectives was to placate the concerns of many over what type of First Lady would be in the White House. Historically, one of the prerequisites for being in the White House was being a fan of this country. Because of the statements above, people have had their doubts. She attempted to wipe out those concerns by announcing that she "loves this country." The jury seems to be out as to whether this statement alone will reverse concerns.

She jumped in with an effort to show that she and her family was like so many others around the country. A person who was concerned about her daughters and who wants to provide hope for all Americans who have been "left out." Her husband didn't take a fancy Wall Street job (typical of a fresh Ivy League graduate), but worked in the inner city and represented those who were largely without hope.

Although she loves this country, she also said there is the "America that is" and the "America that should be." The latter one seems markedly different than the ones we all know and makes many wonder what she loves about this country? That remained unanswered in her speech.

She spent part of her time doing an inventory of the many great things done by others. Joe Biden, who "represents" the working class and is a voice for so many Americans who have "no hope" and Hillary Clinton (whose delegates are still less than happy) was praised for the contributions the Senator has made for the advancement of women in politics.

In the end, the presentation was largely a family friendly infomercial. Michelle was articulate and passionate, but she expended energy in a speech that most will find of little lasting value. James Carville has said that the Republicans should be a party on the run and in total defensive mode. Neither Edward Kennedy nor Michelle Obama acted as people who saw the Democrats as a party on the move. Instead, Michelle Obama behaved as a woman who has a party and a husband that needs to be defended. That has Obama and the Democrats operating from a position of weakness instead of strength. That is not the way to begin a convention.

The truth may be in the numbers. Typically such speeches by potential First Ladies lead to a polling bump. Obama's Gallop Poll numbers are down two percent since the speech. Again, not the way to begin a convention.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters.

Subscribe to his newsletter here.Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

On Obama's Choice for Vice President

On Wednesday I predicted that Barack Obama would, in fact, choose Senator Joe Biden of Delaware as his running mate. He formally made that announcement very late Friday night. I have been suggesting a probable Obama-Biden ticket for quite some time. It simply makes sense. Biden brings decades of experience, a common man background (he is one of the poorest members of the Senate), substantial (if not accurate) foreign policy knowledge, and an understanding of the Congress that is possibly unsurpassed.

Since Thursday, speculation as to who would be the Democratic VP choice has been at a fever pitch. Starting on Friday, the front runners started falling like flies. There was talk that a lowly House Member from Texas (Chet Edwards) was going to get the nod, which made me sweat a little, but to me it was all part of a larger plan to keep Obama in the headlines. It worked. There have been very few stories that have been on anything, except the VP choice.

We now have a sense of what Biden brings to this race, but his down side is fairly significant too. He represents Delaware, which is a state with only three electoral votes and votes Democrat any way. The fact that he was born in Pennsylvania does not mean he will carry that important state, in my opinion. Obama lost that state in the primaries and could do so again in November. Biden also has a problem with saying more than an occasional gaffe. He “speaks his mind,” often to his own demise. He described Obama’s early electoral success as being due to the Illinois Senator being a “storybook” character: a first “clean,” “articulate”, and “handsome” black candidate. There is no surprise that an apology soon followed.

The single biggest advantage that Biden brings is his candor, though. He is extremely tough minded and sharp tongued. His ability to speak his mind will be refreshing compared to Senator Obama’s extreme caution. Recently, that reluctance to speak freely, has made Obama look afraid and is a man who has simply bit off more than he can chew in pursuing the Presidency. Obama is not the “rough and tumble” type (although that side was demonstrated in his early races for state office). A traditional role of Vice Presidential candidate is that of “junk yard dog.” The guy who will go on the attack so the Presidential candidate can maintain the appropriate image. Presidential. Joe Biden is just the man for that job, probably more so than any VP candidate since Spiro T. Agnew back in 1968.

I feel like the pressure is on for my next prediction – the GOP choice for VP. This will not be as easy. I have speculated on the leading possibilities and the ones whom I believe would be the best addition to the ticket, but I am not ready to call it yet. Stay tuned though. I plan on taking a stab at it before long.

I would have blown my horn earlier on this, but I spent my weekend in the hill country of Texas in the middle of no where. It is so nice to be back near technology.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters. Subscribe to his newsletter here.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

Conservatives Fear of Obama Gives McCain Room for a Bold VP Choice

The choice of who will be the Republican Vice President nominee will likely be unusually important this election cycle. Typically the mantra is "do no harm." This year, because of the incredible move of the Democrats with Obama and the very boring presence of McCain, Republicans better go bold. The question is, how bold? Will that be measured by ethnicity? Gender? Skin color? Religion? Those are the questions Republican strategists should be asking. However, the list of most commonly mentioned candidates for the VP post makes me wonder.

My favorite choice, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, has largely taken himself out of consideration. It is too bad, because he did so much for McCain. He is charismatic, young, being the first Vice President born in the 1970s, very conservative (shoring up an area McCain has proven to be weak), he would make history as the first Indian American and Asian American elected to Vice President. In spite of his young age, he actually has a more substantial career than Barack Obama. I do believe he can be persuaded. I hope that happens.

Another often mentioned choice is Mitt Romney, who knows how to spend money for votes, but doesn't appear to know how to collect them. I don't think I have ever see a candidate spend more per vote and have less to show for it. Romney is charismatic and financially very successful, but he has "matured" in his political thinking too late for most conservatives. In his first Senate race against Ted Kennedy he was a liberal Republican. When he ran for Governor, it was as a moderate. Now, he tries to position himself as a conservative. The reality is, Romney brings very little to the ticket. Conservatives and Evangelicals seem as suspicious of him as they are McCain because of his Mormon beliefs and shifting philosophy. The only conservatives that seem passionate about Romney are the same ones who wanted McCain to lose if he received the Republican nomination. The choice of Romney would essentially guarantee that.

Many conservatives look at McCain in a similar way as they did Bob Dole in 1996. Not a person to get excited about. However, Dole was running against a moderate Democrat in Bill Clinton. A person who "ended poverty as we know it" and in that policy achievement found at least a small spot in the hearts of hardened conservatives. Barack Obama, on the other hand, brings absolute fear in the heart of most rank and file Republicans. It isn't because of his race, his questionable religious background, or even his age and inexperience that they worry. Instead, it his "embarrassment" of the way the US is viewed by the rest of the world and his wife's view that the US is simply mean and for the first time now deserves her being proud of it.

I believe McCain can safely assume he will get conservative voters no mater who he has as Vice President. This is radical coming from me. I strongly wanted a true believer on the top of the ticket, so giving up both spots shows how desperate the situation has become. But it is just that. McCain needs to make some history of his own. Here are a few people that could help him do just that:

* Colin Powell. The former General and Secretary of State would give the American people a leader who inspires respect and authority, taking away some of Obama's thunder. He is "blamed" for the evidence that led to the war in Iraq, but he is respected by liberals and moderates alike. I believe the biggest concern that potential Obama supporters have is his inexperience. Colin Powell allows voters to have their cake and eat it too. With a respected and experienced black leader like Powell.

* Senator Joseph Lieberman. The American people have grown exhausted over the political division in Washington, DC. Lieberman, who would be America's first Jewish Vice President, is now considered an Independent, but has decades on his biography as a Democrat. I have little doubt that he would jump at the opportunity. On the down side, he is not particularly young or charismatic, but he is well like and would offer an opportunity for national unity (verses mere party unity) that we haven't seen in years.

* Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. For conservatives, Rice is fairly solid on foreign policy and an unknown on domestic policy. She is attractive and articulate. She is black and female and would be a huge attraction for Clinton supporters who believe their standard bearer was mistreated. Meanwhile, blacks who have been concerned about how prepared Obama is would find Rice a safe bet. In fact, Rice could seal the deal for the huge percentage of female voters who say they won't vote for Obama.

If McCain is going to play it safe, he need to consider Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Huckabee would help shore up conservative voters (although he is no Reagan conservative) and did the best job of any candidate on his vote per dollar ratio. He is an excellent grass roots organizer who would do a great job in the McCain effort.

I hope McCain goes bold and electrifies his ticket with a VP who could mobilize the many independents who are planning on voting for the first time. He needs to go bold and go deep, his electoral success depends upon it.

Would you like to get a periodical email of the best of Kevin Price's political and economic content? Subscribe to the Houston Business Review at Info@HoustonBusinessShow.com.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Obama's Similarities to Famous Leaders

I have noted for quite some time the media doing stories about the similarities between Obama and other great leaders in history. I will not argue that he doesn't share characteristics of greatness with others, but I will say that they are completely missing the mark when it comes to the ones with whom they make comparisons. The big three I hear about are John F. Kennedy, Jr., Robert Kennedy, and (most surprisingly) Ronald Reagan.

John F. Kennedy, similarities are in youthfulness and the ability to give a speech. But beyond the rhetoric, the two are very different . In 1961, when Kennedy gave his Inaugural Address, he pointed out that "We dare not forget today that we are the heirs of that first revolution. Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans -- born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage..." Kennedy was a genuine war hero and one who understood from day one that he was being sized up by his potential enemies around the world. Kennedy was firmly opposed to Communism and although he didn't take the strong stands that I would have preferred he had taken, there was no mistake about the level of his resolve. Obama, on the other hand, has indicated that he wants to sit face to face with our enemies (North Korea and Iran) and punish our allies (Pakistan). Then there is the competitive nature. I remember reading about JFK throwing the first pitch at a Major League Baseball game. He spent hours over several days practicing his pitch. We all remember Obama's bowling experience with a score (if I recall correctly) of 38. It seems minor, even petty, but to me it speaks a great deal about their resolve and personalities.

Barack Obama is one of the leading advocates of wefarism today and considers the reforms of the 1990s that changed "welfare as we know it" as harsh and unfair. Robert Kennedy, while pursuing his party's nomination in 1968, pointed out that Lyndon Johnson had replaced the important role of fathers and husbands in households with welfare checks and that this was going to create a culture of poverty that our country would not recover. He wanted to encourage business and enterprise to have incentives to move to hard hit areas, which is very different from Obama's approach.

Finally, there is the most preposterous of all, the "similarities" to Ronald Reagan. In particularly, we are being told that he will bring voters who don't traditionally vote Democrat to the party. This may be true with independents, particularly those with little or no voting history, but it will not likely translate into an influx of Republican voters. We all remember the expression "Reagan Democrats" and many of these never returned to their old party. The idea of "Obama Republicans" seems ludicrous to me. Obama is proving to be far more polarizing than Ronald Reagan.

Instead of enhancing Obama's credibility through the attempts of pointing out the so-called similarities between Obama and some of history's greats, I think these efforts is having the exact opposite effect and beginning to make the presumptive Democratic nominee increasingly appear like another empty suit.

According to recent surveys on marketing, most advertising attracts sellers (others who want you to buy more ads) and not buyers. Do you want to know why? Email info@HoustonBusinessShow.com and put "marketing audio" in the subject line and we will get it to you.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

John McCain Can't Win?

I know, it is a little early. After all, Barack Obama just wrapped up his party's nod in the last week or so. But, it appears that John McCain should be doing the finishing touches on his concession speech right about now. At least that is the conclusion of many Presidential Historians.

The story has been running in Yahoo, AOL News, and many other media and the sources are made up of authorities on both the Left and the Right. On the positive side of the articles, they seem to be thoughtful and serious in the analysis. There is none of the teenager, "Obama is so cute" or "charismatic", or "the neatest thing since slice bread." It seems to be based on political realities.

From the Yahoo article: “This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

In spite of Lichtman's history of accuracy, some of the comparisons between McCain and other failed candidates fall clearly in the realm of hyperbole. Even his comments that show McCain "on par" with Jimmy Carter is a bit too much for me. Jimmy Carter's economic performance was so bad that it helped lead a term used to describe under performing European economies to become a part of the US vernacular. "Stagflation," which is the combination of high inflation and high unemployment, became a notable part of the US economy in the 1970s. This is, after all, Bush's economy and that economy is no comparison to what Reagan inherited in 1980.

"Several," according to the article "saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932." Give me a break. McCain's prospects are worse than the one for a man who had 25 percent unemployment? It is this kind of melodrama that makes it difficult to value the analysis. It is outlandish.

I believe that many of the assumptions about Obama are based on the Pre-primary Presidential candidate. Before the Rev. Wright incidences, the Michelle Obama comments, and the difficulty he has in remembering family history. I believe that if the members of his party knew in January what they know today, they would be wondering what the "First Man" would be wearing at his wife's inauguration. Most of the historians quoted and referred to in these news stories are known for a liberal bent. I think that they may be far more "optimistic" than realistic in their assessment.

According to recent surveys on marketing, most advertising attracts sellers (others who want you to buy more ads) and not buyers. Do you want to know why? Email info@HoustonBusinessShow.com and put "marketing audio" in the subject line and we will get it to you.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Libertarians Choose to Help Democrats

The Libertarian race for President has been one of the most contentious that the party has seen in years. Maybe even decades. Eight candidates contended until this weekend, with a final ballot tonight going to former Congressman Bob Barr. The one time Republican Congressman from Georgia was a traditional Conservative for many years in most respects. Fiscal issues, the war in Iraq, and the Republican party's perceived tightening on personal freedoms (e.g., the Patriot Act) "forced" Barr to change parties.

Other contenders included an individual who had recently been pursuing the Democrat's nomination for President. Former US Senator from Alaska, Mike Gravel was eliminated after four of six ballots. In many respects, Gravel was as traditional of a Democrat as Barr was a republican. The only areas Gravel and Barr have in common are the war and civil liberty issues.

It is assumed that a Barr candidacy would harm Republicans more and Gravel would have been a distraction to the Democrats. Maybe the Libertarians believe the Democrats have enough problems with Ralph Nader and wanted to give them a break. More likely it is that Republicans today are more ideologically similar to Libertarians.

Here is a quick break down of where Barr stands:

* The complete elimination of the Income Tax and the repeal of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution that authorizes it.

* In a twist away from traditional Libertarian policies, Barr strongly emphasizes the securing of the borders. His website doesn't detail how he would accomplish such, but Libertarians have traditionally said that you simply have to eliminate the Welfare State that attracts the wrong people to this country. Other wise, immigration is an economic positive. Barr implies a slightly more proactive position.

* Regarding national defense, Barr argues that the US military is used as "Soldiers of Fortune," charged to make sure oil continues to flow to meet our economic needs. He ascribes to a Jeffersonian view of "no entangling alliances."

Will Barr matter? It is too early to say, but I am sure Republicans are anxious about keeping every single potential vote in November.

According to recent surveys on marketing, most advertising attracts sellers (others who want you to buy more ads) and not buyers. Do you want to know why? Email info@HoustonBusinessShow.com and put "marketing audio" in the subject line and we will get it to you.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

How Hillary Clinton Can Win

There is a scenario in which Hillary Clinton can win. That is by getting the nomination in 2012. It is safe to say the Democratic Party has absolutely no intention of getting her the nod. To me, as an outsider (I am not a Democrat), I believe the Democratic machine decided very early to choose Obama. Not the rank and file voters (like those from Florida and Michigan who supported the New York Senator and are being disenfranchised), but the leadership.

They do this because Democrats haven't been able to win a Presidential election without minority (and African-American) support in particular. Now, if they go with Hillary, they will alienate this important demographic. However, Hillary has no intention to give up and she has no interest in waiting until 2016 to run. I believe she is officially running for 2012.

It will be difficult, maybe even impossible, for Clinton to beat Obama if he is an incumbent in 2012. She is passionate about making sure that there is a Republican in that office when 2012 comes around. The best way of doing that is by making sure Sen. John McCain wins this year. Furthermore, with the Republican Senator being in his early 70s already, there is a very good chance that the seat could be completely wide open in 2012 and create a tremendous opportunity for all contenders.

Who would have bet that Hillary Clinton would become McCain's best supporter? Politics does make strange bed fellows.

According to recent surveys on marketing, most advertising attracts sellers (others who want you to buy more ads) and not buyers. Do you want to know why? Email info@HoustonBusinessShow.com and put "marketing audio" in the subject line and we will get it to you.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Barometers Versus Leaders

I'm not a fan of a Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama, or John Edwards. I disagree with Huckabee on most issues and Edwards and Obama on virtually every issues. However, at least these guys have been extremely consistent.

They have said from day one that they intended to be candidates of change. Unfortunately the only change that will likely be found is in our pockets after they confiscate huge amounts of income as they promote the tax legislation through the rhetoric (Obama and Edwards) and through the records (Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee).

The message for change is a sound one. There are certainly things that deserve a better approach. But more government and class conflict (popular themes of each of these candidates) are not a solution.

Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton took a different approach. Romney postured himself as a bastion of stability and a force for normalcy. Clinton mentioned change but, what you really got from her was "experience" (e.g., all the funerals she attended as First Lady). Now that the experience message isn't resonating, these candidates are making dramatic shifts toward populist rhetoric. Ironically, Clinton's shift may have worked in New Hampshire (that appears to be the case at the time of the writing).

Romeny and Clinton seem to make better barometers than leaders. They have sensed a change in the political weather and are trying to accommodate the storm rather than their principles. We need principled leadership and not mere gauges of temperament.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Mike Huckabee is Trying to Have His Cake and Eat It Too

Mike Huckabee is trying to have his cake and eat it too. This isn't easy to accomplish in an environment that is difficult to even get a fair break.

For weeks Mitt Romney has opened his deep pockets in an effort to derail the Huckabee Express. The former governor from Arkansas has gone from minor player to the man to beat over the last few months. With an attitude that nears entitlement -- Romney has paid for this nomination after all -- he is throwing everything, including the kitchen sink at Huckabee.

Huckabee has based his campaign on being a nice guy, which has played no small role in fueling his success, in my opinion. Further, his wit and wisdom has made him stand out in an often unimpressive crowd.

It appears, though that Huckabee has had all he can tolerate and he has decided to go ugly, creating an ad that puts him on the offensive. He looked at it and concluded that it wasn't the kind of ad that Huckabee should run. It had the potential of doing more harm to his reputation than help it.

He was probably right, but ruined his good intentions by having a press conference announcing he wasn't going to run the ad and showing the media the “offensive” commercial his team had designed. The purpose was to say, "do you see what I could have unleashed on Romney?"

I assume Huckabee was hoping that the media would run the spot for him and give him free advertising, but with arms length distance from the campaign. There has been some play of the ad, but at the expense of his "good guy" image. This is not the kind of approach that has made Huckabee the serious contender he has become. It seems to be the results of a "Tier 2" operation representing what has become a "Tier 1" candidate. He might survive it, but if such tactics continue the future will not be bright for Huckabee, in my opinion.

As an aside, since people interpret such posts as endorsements or oppositions, I don't support Huckabee. In fact, his views on economic issues are very disconcerting (I suggest reading the Club for Growth reports of Huckabee and other candidates). I continue to strongly lean towards Fred Thompson and wait patiently for him to give me more reasons to do so.

Kevin Price is the Host of the Houston Business Show, M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650. You can hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Read his opinions at BizPlusBlog.com. He is also the Publisher of HoustonBusinessReview.com.