Sarah Palin's Odd Move

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shocked the political world by deciding to resign from office by the end of July. The blogosphere is making assessments about her decision based on their opinions of her. If they like her, it is some how "brilliant." If they don't, she is a "complete moron." I want to take this a little deeper.

For disclosure sake, I'm a fan of Gov. Palin. She is the first major political candidate to fully embrace and epitomize Reagan's "3 legged stool" of limited government, pro family, and national security since the Gipper himself. Furthermore, she is the only candidate in years who seems to understand the morality of economics. In fact, in her resignation speech she mentioned that the stimulus package was "immoral" because of its redistributive nature and control it placed on the states. You simply don't hear that from politicians today, but that message is desperately needed.

Now, with that disclosure, I simply don't understand her decision at all. I read her speech several times and watched it as well, and the more I studied it, the less I "got it." With the information I have before us today, I have to come to one of the following conclusions:

• She couldn't stand the heat of constant scrutiny on the family and her and simply needed to get out. This may be noble, but it likely spells the end of a powerful political career. Furthermore, if they can't handle the governorship, they certainly can't handle the White House or even the Senate, where they would deal with the constant questions by the much larger and more hostile cadre of journalists in DC. Than again, she could take a decade off and have her kids much older and she would certainly be young enough to run. She could rightly hope they will forget her resignation, but they will also likely forget her.


• A much bigger scandal that will "stick" is about to come upon her. Palin has been plagued with scandals since August of 2008, about the time she received the GOP nod for VP. None of them have had any staying power and they all appear to be trumped up to discredit her. You get the sense with this announcement, that "the other shoe" is going to drop and it is going to be big.


• She wants a fresh start. Tired of getting exonerated of one scandal to make room for another, she might think this is the best way to create a new beginning. She will be free to travel the country and make large amounts of money as a speaker, accumulate the financial largess to run for higher office and build a name around the country. Barack Obama and George W. Bush were the only Presidential candidates since John F. Kennedy to have a full time job while running for President and get elected. Furthermore, Reagan, Carter, and Clinton were former governors when they ran, making it a great springboard for office. The difference between Palin and these others, were the circumstances of which she left.
  

My concern is that no woman or minority is going to have a prayer dealing with the mainstream media if they are Conservative. The left tries to place these groups on a plantation, stating they would have nothing without liberal policies. This is a very narrow view indeed, but those who break it will suffer.

The jury will be deliberating on this for quite some time. However, she is going to have a difficult time distancing herself from accusations of being unable to finish things, or being scandal plagued, or not tough enough, or several other things that will do nothing to help her case as a GOP front runner.

See Kevin Price's new video commentary on the subject here.

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Why Obama is Offended by Palin

It is a classic example of "bait and hook." John McCain has brilliantly chosen a Vice Presidential candidate who begs the question of experience. I know, that seems contrary to conventional wisdom, but I believe that it has huge strategic value to McCain's chances of getting elected President.

Palin's relatively thin experience for such a high office creates a huge temptation for the Democrats to go on the attack. However, it is the type of temptation that they can't afford to give in to. McCain knows it and, thus the choice.

* If Obama/Biden attacks Pailin too harshly on any grounds, it will garner the Republican a huge amount of sympathy from people who are tired of seeing female candidates getting mugged. Wounds from the Clinton race are still fresh in the minds of many.

* The media has already made people sensitive about the criticism that Sarah Palin might receive. Ridiculous questions that journalists would have asked during the time of "Leave it to Beaver" and "I Love Lucy" -- about a "woman's place is at home" has everyone on the left and right up in arms. This alone should have the Democrats proceed with extreme caution.

* The biggest reason Obama shouldn't bite into the temptation is because her experience is actually more substantive (includes executive power) than the Democrat's nominee. This is also why Obama is so offended that Sarah Palin was chosen.

Obama is, without question, the least experienced candidate to receive a major party's nomination for President. Obama likes to talk about the youthful John F. Kennedy and his staff enjoys the comparison. But Kennedy was a man who was "tempered by war" and an actual hero in his own right. Furthermore, he had six years of experience in the US House and a full term in the US Senate. Obmama does not want to beg that type of comparison. Obama's complete national legislative experience is less than Kennedy's in the Senate.

Obama's reaction and his inability to avoid the temptation to attack is rooted into the same reasons why he and his team reacted to the controversial New Yorker magazine cover. You remember it. The cartoon that characterized Obama and his wife as Muslim radicals who are trying to overthrow our freedoms and disregard our traditions. Was it inflammatory? Of course, just like the same magazine implied that George Bush and Dick Cheney had a "Brokeback Mountain" relationship. The publication assumed that no one would take it seriously. Obama did because it hits too close to home.

The appointment of Palin works in a similar fashion. "How dear the Republican's dismiss me by choosing such an inexperienced VP?" is the cry from Obama. You can almost hear it when he talks. The sad thing for Obama is that Palin's executive experience makes her better poised to take the chief executive spot than Obama. That is why the Democrats should avoid attack in this area. My instincts tell me they won't take that advice.

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McCain Chooses Sarah Palin

A few days ago I wrote about the likely choices of McCain for VP and although I mention Sarah Palin as an excellent possibility, I didn't see her in the final four. In fact, we heard little about her in the final weeks. Of my final four, I felt the number one choice would be a woman. It just happen to be the wrong one (Kay Bailey Hutchinson). Close, but no cigars.

I didn't expect Palin because I must have underestimated McCain. I thought he needed a woman to attract unhappy Hillary Democrats. But I thought that he would have his concern for experience (Palin is in her first term as Governor and was a mayor before), age (she is younger than Obama at 44), and the lack of electoral votes in Alaska (the least a state can have at 3) would work against her. In spite of these issues, I thought Palin was a dream candidate.

McCain, who is in his 70s, needed to prove he could make a bold move. He is known as a "maverick" and it has largely paid off over the years. I don't believe this will be an exception.

McCain needed someone with executive experience on the ticket. As a Governor, Palin knows how to lead government and not merely criticize it (which is about all Members of Congress do). Even though I predicted that Obama would choose Sen. Biden days before the announcement, I certainly think he could have been aided by a running mate with gubnatorial experience.

McCain needed a woman. I don't believe anything short of a woman or a minority would be acceptable in this election year. A woman, in light of the Democrat's problems with Hillary, was particularly helpful.

McCain needed to shore up his Conservative support. Palin certainly knows how to do that. She is one of the most conservative women in electoral politics today. She is pro-family and pro-life and can talk about such with the experience of having had a child with Down Syndrome. When the Democratic men try to talk with empathy about the challenges women can face with pregnancy, she certainly has a trump card.

A nice aside would be if McCain could find someone who could talk authoritatively about the Republican's strongest wedge issue -- energy. Who better than the governor of the state that the Democrats want to protect from drilling, yet she argues that such must be pursued.

This choice puts the Democrats on notice that they are no longer the only ones poised to make history this November.

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McCain Makes His Choice for VP

Days before the official announcement I predicted that Barack Obama would choose Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware as his running mate. The article enjoyed a great deal of traction outside of my blog and now I am getting pressure to do it again when it comes to John McCain. This may not be as easy.

Picking Barack Obama's choice was relatively easy because his weaknesses are so obvious (and Biden was a great balance to them), he is very predictable and actually resistant to change (and the Delaware Senator is very "safe"), and Obama is perceived as an elitist by many because of his Pro-Europe rhetoric and statements viewed as anti-American by many, plus his $4.5 million in income last year alone (Biden, on the other hand, is considered one of the poorest members of the Senate).

So who will McCain choose? We hear about former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal as Conservative favorites. But Romney does not have a history of conservatism to make anyone on the Right comfortable and Jindal has been very clear that he doesn't want the job. It is too bad, because Jindal is young, very conservative, and being of Indian descent, he could certainly bring some excitement to the ticket in terms of making history. Another commonly mentioned "safe choice" is Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Recently the chatter has been very strong in his direction, but few can cite what he can bring to the ticket.

Then there are the "bold" choices. These include Sen. Joseph Liberman, Secretary of State Condi Rice, and former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Many believe that although none of these choices are very conservative, they are the kind of candidates who could pull votes from the Democrats while the rank and file Republicans will overlook their lack of right wing credentials because of their concerns over Obama.

One of the latest ones being mentioned and is quickly rising is Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX). Although considered a moderate, she is one of the more conservative females in either Houses of Congress. In fact, she voted the GOP position 89 percent of the time. She brings the female appeal that could attract many disenchanted Hillary Democrats, yet she doesn't scare off traditional Republicans. Another often mentioned female is Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. She is solidly conservative and knows about energy. She would certainly defend the domestic drilling case being pushed by Republicans.

In my Obama/Biden piece I was a little bold. I said it was going to be Biden. Period. I am going to hedge my bets a little and name the top four. However, I will stick my neck out there and place them in the order of likelihood.

Number four on the list is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. I don't believe this a "good" choice by any measure. Yes he is attractive and articulate, but he can't bring in the voters and he became a conservative too late in life for the comfort of most. Furthermore, the Democrats will have a field day providing film footage of the bitter fighting Romney and McCain had in the primaries.

Number three is Condi Rice. She may very well be the best choice. It is true that she is largely unknown when it comes to domestic policy, but she is solid in many national security areas. Furthermore, she is an African-American woman. That covers many voters who are interested in history. The down side is that she and McCain are both considered foreign policy experts. Someone with domestic policy strength could help the ticket.

Number two on the list is Gov. Bobby Jindal. You never know, he might even accept it from a hurricane center in his state, showing "hands on" leadership. Jindal, more than any other candidate in my opinion, combines a bold move for independents and comfort for the conservative base that is crucial in getting Republicans elected.

Candidate number one and the one I believe McCain is going to choose is Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas. She has fifteen years of experience in the Senate, and a substantial voting record that people could judge (it is moderate-conservative), she is a woman (which will help attract disgruntled Hillary supporters), and she is from the South (crucial for the GOP to win elections).

In the end, this is what I am expecting and not hoping. Jindal would be my choice, if I could call it. But Hutchinson could very well be the right compliment, at this time, to get McCain elected.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters. Subscribe to his newsletter here.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

And The Democrats Vice President Nominee Is....

Talk about the likely choice of Vice President on both the Republican and Democrat side is beginning to dominate the airwaves. On the Republican side, questions of age, gender, race, and ideology are all weighing heavy. Interestingly, those are the exact same questions being asked by the Democrats. I want to focus on what the Democrats are going to need from a Vice President nominee:

* The National Journal has identified Barack Obama as the most liberal member of the US Senate. He needs a running mate with solidly moderate credentials. It is next to impossible to find a national Democrat who is conservative, so we will keep our expectations modest.

* Barack Obama is one of the youngest people to be the nominee of his party for President. Furthermore, he looks younger than his age. Having a running mate that looks more mature would bolster his ticket.

* A huge number of Democrats are furious over the situation with Hillary Clinton. They see her as jilted by the party itself. Some, I'm sure, are entertaining Clinton as VP, but others still are concerned about the field day the Republicans will have using film footage of the two candidates (Obama and Clinton) pounding each other during the primaries. However, does Obama need a woman to help placate the female members of his party?

* One of Obama's biggest weaknesses is foreign policy experience. We live in a dangerous world and people want mature and decisive leadership to face international challenges. Foreign policy experience on the ticket would be very helpful.

* Obama (like McCain among Republican states) found it very difficult to win in states that Democrats must line up in November. In those traditional Democrat strongholds, Hillary often found herself on top. Finding someone strong in these areas could be helpful.

The list of candidates being mentioned most are Sam Nunn (former Senator of Georgia and an established foreign policy leader) and Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, an enthusiastic supporter of Hillary Clinton who could help mend fences there. Both of these are perceived moderates and Nunn can help with the problem of Obama's perceived youthfulness. Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius is about the only female mentioned with much frequency and she does nothing to help Obama in some of her biggest weaknesses. There was also much talk of Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico. He has a significant amount of foreign policy experience and he serves as a chief executive in the office of governor. However he has not and is not likely to catch on at this point.

So, who will be the Democrat's nominee for VP? My gut still says Hillary is the only one who can heal the divide in the party. Get ready for a Republican field day!

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Dark Reasons Behind the Pro-Romney Crowd?

Many are advocating Mitt Romney for John McCain's choice for Vice President and it seems as though he is the one to beat. We are told that it is due to several factors:

* He is handsome and charismatic

* He proved an ability to get elected in very liberal states (he was, after all, governor of Massachusetts)

* He has an enormous amount of money and knows people with money, which will certainly help a campaign that is limping along financially

* he has done an effective job of marketing himself as a Conservative.

I'm not joining the bandwagon for several reasons of my own:

* Romney had been a liberal for years and "matured" on the issues rather late in his career

* In spite of spending as much as ten times more per vote (or more) than Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain, Romney had little to show for it as far as electoral success

* Romney is particularly weak when it comes to bringing in votes in the crucial Southern states, which have proven imperative in getting Republicans elected

What I find interesting is that the people who are promoting Romney are the media, who have made it clear they are largely supporting Obama in November and Conservative Republicans who implied that they wouldn't support McCain if he got the nomination. It appears with Romney on the ticket, they are guaranteeing the Republican Party's demise.

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Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.