Why the Market and Unemployment Jump at the Same Time

On Monday of this week over 70,000 jobs disappeared from some of America's largest businesses. Today, Boeing announced they were laying off 10,000 more. What was Wall Street's response? The first upward trend for the Market since Barack Obama came to office.

There is a clear divide between the short term interests of the public and business in general and an even bigger gap between the average person and Wall Street. The latter is all about profits and bottom lines. They could not be happier about the Draconian steps being taken by businesses this week for several reasons:

• When economic environments get to this point, there is nothing that Wall Street desires more than action. Often "retreat" (cutting costs and employees) is one of the most attractive actions in the eyes of investors.


• There is no quicker way to cut costs than to cut employees. Employees are one of the most expensive aspects of doing business and so Wall Street is particularly excited by such cuts. The more harsh, the better.


• Wall Street has been waiting for the market to capitulate. They have been waiting to see investors hit bottom (the DJA is now roughly half of what it was a year ago) and another indicator that the decline has plateaued is when you start to see massive layoffs. Such job losses are horrific for the recipient of the pink slip, but is great news for those who are investing in those businesses.

The job cutting is far from over. Virtually every publicly owned company is going to seek ways to increase investor confidence in their companies. There is no quicker way to achieve that following a decline in profits than through layoffs. Those who have not cut yet are watching the Market's response favorably and you can expect many more to jump on board. In fact, even as I write this, Fox News is reporting that Best Buy and Target are adding to the jobless numbers. Furthermore, many of the companies that have had layoffs also have vendor relationships that are dependent on them. As we see these companies lay people off, expect many more businesses that are dependent on them to do the same thing.

I know it looks a little dark, but these layoffs could very well be the beginning of the "light at the end of the tunnel." This hope becoming a reality depends heavily on the policy choices of Barack Obama.

Kevin Price is a syndicated columnist whose articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media. Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

US Businesses Vote with Their Pink Slips

Before President-elect Barack Obama had a chance to resign from the US Senate there was an out pouring of pink slips through out US industry. Some may argue that they would have happened regardless of who won, but I found it interesting that these businesses held on to these many employees until after the election either to boost Republican hopes for reelection or to make a protest statement if things didn't turn out favorable for business.

We already knew that the job creators -- businesses of all sizes -- were supporting McCain and it wasn't even close. According to CEO Magazine's survey, over 80 percent of CEOs favored McCain over Obama. McCain's support or the fear of Obama was overwhelming.

However, a majority of Americans didn't seem to care. They desired a "tax cut" over a job (although we are now told that being employed will be a requirement for such a cut). It appears that many of them will enjoy neither.

Barron's notes that "A week ago, we got word that the number of unemployed Americans in October shot up by 603,000, the second largest increase in 28 years! Today, the Labor Department tells us the deterioration actually accelerated in the first days of November. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits surged by 516,000 in the week ended Nov. 8. This is the largest weekly increase since immediately after Sept. 11 and the second biggest in 16 years. At this point, more Americans are collecting unemployment insurance than at any time in a quarter century, with some 3.9 million on the dole as of Nov. 1, a 51% increase from a year ago."

The timing of these layoffs and the elections are more than coincidental to me. They are directly connected. I have been told by business owners for months that if Obama was elected, jobs would have to go. We don't know if the new President will keep his promises, but business owners certainly have. Businesses through out the country are having a second election and it is costing Americans their jobs. I don't blame American enterprise, however, but the new Administration that has a predatory view of it.

The current scenario reminds me of a mild version of Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged. In the Objectivist philosopher's book, she describes a scenario where the "men of the mind" go on strike and stop contributing to commerce, art, culture, inventions, etc. In that book the people that drive the economy grow tired of being mistreated by the excesses of government and they simply stop working. No, we are not quite there yet, but give us time.

Who knows, Obama might be the pragmatist he claims he wants to as he has stated in a recent interview. The media, however, isn't buying it and in light of his rhetoric and record, I cannot blame them.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

2008 Elections: Confessions of Small Business Owners

With the time left in this campaign reflected better in hours than days, it will be interesting to see the total reach of an Obama presidency and Democrat control of both Houses of Congress. Every day, when I go on the air or view my email, small business owners are horrified by what this country will be like under a new administration. A fellow host of another radio show at my station told me that they have already identified who they will layoff if Obama wins. They will likely give them the walking papers before the week is over.

Each month, I give several speeches and people quietly whisper to me that "there is no way my business can survive Obama, I am thinking of selling before the election." Time has run out for many of these individuals, but there appears to be a great deal of doom and gloom in the works if Obama and company wins the day.

Recently, Barack Obama has gotten extremely specific about what he would do if elected. In a new TV commercial, the Illinois Senator said he intends to both "penalize" companies that export jobs over sea and provide a tax increase for the top 5 percent. So much for the old saying that "you can't help America's poor by making America poor." Obama seems more than willing to try such a policy. When Herbert Hoover raised taxes in the early days of the recession of 1929, we slipped into a depression. Obama intends to use the Hoover approach as a road map.

Meanwhile, instead of asking the question as to why jobs are being exported to other parts of the world, Obama prefers to penalize business owners who are looking out for their natural self interest. US Businesses are in the business of making money. Obama's plan will force those companies that are still corporately located here to simply move entirely overseas. That will help America's poor?

I go back to my mantra. Business don't pay taxes, they are tax collectors. If the cost of taxes on corporations are too high for them to collect and still stay competitive, they will move from the United States. We don't want to compete with developing countries by making labor cheap, but we can compete by cutting taxes. Business taxes are used by cowards in politics who are afraid to tax voters directly. Meanwhile, those taxes harm business and jobs. We need to cut taxes on job creators.

Businesses are telling me they are not "like sheep." They are ready to take care of their families and businesses. They will take the necessary actions to fend off the policies supported by Obama. Unfortunately, the middle class and working poor will be the ones who will suffer most from those actions. But don't blame the businesses, blame the policy makers who forced such choices.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Jobs that Could Be in Trouble

The economy appears to be in trouble and everyone is wondering what industries will suffer the most from the up coming recession. When dollars get tight, people focus on cutting costs and buying necessities. So, anything that can be described as "waste" are most vulnerable. Currently, unemployment is now above 6 percent and some fear it could reach double digits.

The following are a few examples of industries that could be hardest hit:

• Supermarkets and fast food establishments could be the first to see a negative impact. The latter is for obvious reasons, because people will simply refrain from eating out as often. Supermarkets, on the other hand, will find themselves in a battle over pricing that we hadn't seen in years. The large volume leaders -- Walmart, Costco, and Sam's -- will be the likely winners of that battle. AOL Money & Finance points out that "Aside from Supervalu, which has already said it is struggling, Kroger and Safeway could be affected as well. These three largest chains have more than 750,000 workers. If same store sales drop sharply and a large number of outlets are closed watch for as many as 50,000 people being out of work.This does not take into account the scores of smaller chains and tens of thousands of individual food retailers around the country." On the fast food front, 10,000 jobs have already departed from Starbucks. That will only be the beginning.



• An industry that has been perceived as some what recession proof -- the Internet and E Commerce -- could be falling on hard times. The way these industries will be hit is if the damage is widespread throughout the business market place and it has a ripple effect on these areas. To some companies, E commerce and web businesses are an option, not a necessity. If that is the case, they too could suffer.



• E companies could find themselves in pain. My company's own web platform of over 90 websites has seen a slight decline in pay per click advertising revenue (fortunately we have seen a rise of other advertisiers). People are getting their ads for less because there are fewer competing to place them. What type of business are vulnerable? Google, Yahoo, eBay, and Amazon, just to name a few. Combined, these four employ over 75,000 employees. Yahoo seems the most vulnerable and could easily layoff 20 percent of its 15,000 employees.



• Software firms are also very vulnerable and I am sure that Bill Gates and his friends at Microsoft are among the most concerned. The largest of these companies employ over 600,000 combined. If these firms start laying off, it will have a trickle effect through out the entire economy since so many businesses are dependent on them.



• The hot industry in my neighborhood is energy and even it is vulnerable to cut backs. The price per barrel has dropped from a high of nearly $150 to around $70. Those prices are still high, historically, but the days of the fatted calf may be fading. Some are projecting a cut of as many as 5 percent of the labor force in these industries.



• Not surprisingly, media companies are taking a significant hit at this time. Everyone seems to be trying to lower expectations, including Viacom and CBS. The six largest media companies -- including Time Warner, Disney, and GE -- employ over 400,000 employees. If they start laying off the ripple effect could be huge.

What over shadows these dire concerns is the fact that thing Wall Street loves to see it that, when a business hits a hard time, the decision makers are tough and willing to make unpopular decisions. This is often best demonstrated in layoffs. In fact, the Stock Market has a history of rewarding companies with higher returns as they let employees go.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.