The GOP may have a race of three

If you listen to the mainstream media, the race for the GOP nomination is pretty much a dead heat between three candidates: former governors Sarah Palin of Alaska, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. No one else needs to apply. Most would argue that John McCain was too old and certainly too moderate in 2008. Nothing has changed since then and, according to the pundits, these three are the only ones with the name identification, revenue sources, and organization to be taken seriously. Thanks to the media, they have done the vetting for us. Thank goodness, because I certainly did not want to do any of the heavy lifting.

Seriously though, is the race already history? Do we need to not get behind a candidate but simply wait for one of these three to rise to the top? I have seen several articles on the subject and although there are some times additional candidates are thrown in, the reoccurring theme includes these three candidates. Of the articles, one of the most interesting was by Paul Bedard in Washington Whispers from US News & World Reports.

Bedard recognizes there are other players in consideration for 2012, including one or two that are not on his top three lists and he already places them in the "also ran" department. These include Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He points out that the Republican Party is not much for surprises and is big on those who have paid their dues being rewarded, noting that "In a party that allows for only a handful of big names in the primaries and favors those making a second try, the room is getting full." But this is not just the opinion of a journalist, but even among professional observers of the Party. GOP pollster Bill McInturff stated that "We already have a relatively mature field." Those that are considered most "mature" or established" include Palin, Huckabee, or Romney.

"I always talk about oxygen in a presidential primary race, with the amount of oxygen being finite, meaning attention and coverage," McInturff is quoted by Bedard. "If Governor Palin does run, it is difficult to imagine how a new candidate gets the oxygen needed for a breakout," he says. "In this way, it accrues to the advantage of already established candidates like Palin, Huckabee, and Romney."

The race is certainly not over, but the GOP is extremely cautious in its choices of candidates. I think the writer hit the nail on the head when he pointed out that "the Republican camp generally likes to nominate somebody who has run before." Call it what it is, but this is good old fashion due diligence, which is the type of approach that is common in the Republican Party. I think many, if not most, Democrats wish they had done a little more homework in its choice of a President in 2008.

The one thing that is not being included in this "conventional wisdom" is the role of the Tea Parties, which are maturing and demanding more on a daily basis. The "good old boy" network and the "get along gang" are not nearly as popular as they use to be. Of the three candidates considered in the top three, Palin is certainly the most interesting to those who consider themselves a part of the Tea Party movement. I, personally, am keeping an eye on Governors Daniel and Barbour as well as her. I think the Tea Party could change all of the rules on Presidential politics and 2012 could be an interesting year indeed.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. His articles often appear in Chicago Sun Times, Reuters, USA Today, and other national media. Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

Conservatives Fear of Obama Gives McCain Room for a Bold VP Choice

The choice of who will be the Republican Vice President nominee will likely be unusually important this election cycle. Typically the mantra is "do no harm." This year, because of the incredible move of the Democrats with Obama and the very boring presence of McCain, Republicans better go bold. The question is, how bold? Will that be measured by ethnicity? Gender? Skin color? Religion? Those are the questions Republican strategists should be asking. However, the list of most commonly mentioned candidates for the VP post makes me wonder.

My favorite choice, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, has largely taken himself out of consideration. It is too bad, because he did so much for McCain. He is charismatic, young, being the first Vice President born in the 1970s, very conservative (shoring up an area McCain has proven to be weak), he would make history as the first Indian American and Asian American elected to Vice President. In spite of his young age, he actually has a more substantial career than Barack Obama. I do believe he can be persuaded. I hope that happens.

Another often mentioned choice is Mitt Romney, who knows how to spend money for votes, but doesn't appear to know how to collect them. I don't think I have ever see a candidate spend more per vote and have less to show for it. Romney is charismatic and financially very successful, but he has "matured" in his political thinking too late for most conservatives. In his first Senate race against Ted Kennedy he was a liberal Republican. When he ran for Governor, it was as a moderate. Now, he tries to position himself as a conservative. The reality is, Romney brings very little to the ticket. Conservatives and Evangelicals seem as suspicious of him as they are McCain because of his Mormon beliefs and shifting philosophy. The only conservatives that seem passionate about Romney are the same ones who wanted McCain to lose if he received the Republican nomination. The choice of Romney would essentially guarantee that.

Many conservatives look at McCain in a similar way as they did Bob Dole in 1996. Not a person to get excited about. However, Dole was running against a moderate Democrat in Bill Clinton. A person who "ended poverty as we know it" and in that policy achievement found at least a small spot in the hearts of hardened conservatives. Barack Obama, on the other hand, brings absolute fear in the heart of most rank and file Republicans. It isn't because of his race, his questionable religious background, or even his age and inexperience that they worry. Instead, it his "embarrassment" of the way the US is viewed by the rest of the world and his wife's view that the US is simply mean and for the first time now deserves her being proud of it.

I believe McCain can safely assume he will get conservative voters no mater who he has as Vice President. This is radical coming from me. I strongly wanted a true believer on the top of the ticket, so giving up both spots shows how desperate the situation has become. But it is just that. McCain needs to make some history of his own. Here are a few people that could help him do just that:

* Colin Powell. The former General and Secretary of State would give the American people a leader who inspires respect and authority, taking away some of Obama's thunder. He is "blamed" for the evidence that led to the war in Iraq, but he is respected by liberals and moderates alike. I believe the biggest concern that potential Obama supporters have is his inexperience. Colin Powell allows voters to have their cake and eat it too. With a respected and experienced black leader like Powell.

* Senator Joseph Lieberman. The American people have grown exhausted over the political division in Washington, DC. Lieberman, who would be America's first Jewish Vice President, is now considered an Independent, but has decades on his biography as a Democrat. I have little doubt that he would jump at the opportunity. On the down side, he is not particularly young or charismatic, but he is well like and would offer an opportunity for national unity (verses mere party unity) that we haven't seen in years.

* Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. For conservatives, Rice is fairly solid on foreign policy and an unknown on domestic policy. She is attractive and articulate. She is black and female and would be a huge attraction for Clinton supporters who believe their standard bearer was mistreated. Meanwhile, blacks who have been concerned about how prepared Obama is would find Rice a safe bet. In fact, Rice could seal the deal for the huge percentage of female voters who say they won't vote for Obama.

If McCain is going to play it safe, he need to consider Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Huckabee would help shore up conservative voters (although he is no Reagan conservative) and did the best job of any candidate on his vote per dollar ratio. He is an excellent grass roots organizer who would do a great job in the McCain effort.

I hope McCain goes bold and electrifies his ticket with a VP who could mobilize the many independents who are planning on voting for the first time. He needs to go bold and go deep, his electoral success depends upon it.

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Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Who Should Conservatives Vote For?

There is a debate raging among Texas Republicans about whether they should vote in the Democratic Party in order to play a spoiler role. After all, the Democrats and independents did the same thing to Republicans in places like New Hampshire, which has led to us having a likely nominee like John McCain. The following are four options being weighed by Conservatives in Texas:

* Vote for John McCain in order to make him look like a stronger candidate as he goes into the general election. This seems to be the least attractive option among Conservative voters that I know.

* Vote for Barack Obama to protect voters from the Clinton machine. She is, without a doubt, the most polarizing candidate in the race for the presidency. Maybe the most divisive, ever. I believe that Obama is the biggest threat in November, however. He's articulate and has virtually no record to run from. Voting for Hillary was the conventional wisdom for some time. To me, it makes zero sense.

The two most logical options to this writer are:

* Voting for Hillary Clinton. I must admit, it is very strange to see that on my screen. However, a vote for Hillary will likely force Democrats to use the delegates voted for in Michigan and Florida in order to have a decisive victory. This means that Obama will be punished for obeying the rules and Hillary would likely come out the winner in a smoke filled room. It will be similar to George McGovern getting the nomination after a brokered convention in 1972 and his giving his acceptance speech at 3 AM. The nominee will limp along to November and Democratic voters will feel very disenfranchised.

* Voting for Mike Huckabee. A vote for Huckabee will remind McCain how hard he still needs to work to satisfy Conservative voters. It will make him weigh his choices for Vice President more seriously and take stronger positions on issues he has been soft on. Furthermore, there are many "RINOs" (Republicans in Name Only) running for office on Texas ballots. If one votes for a Democrat they will not be voicing their opinion on those other races, meaning that moderate Republicans (who would vote for McCain anyway) will determine Republican representation on those other offices. It is too important for RINOs to vote for Republicans.

It is that last argument that will likely have me cast a vote for Huckabee. It will be interesting to see what other Conservatives will be doing this Tuesday.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Barometers Versus Leaders

I'm not a fan of a Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama, or John Edwards. I disagree with Huckabee on most issues and Edwards and Obama on virtually every issues. However, at least these guys have been extremely consistent.

They have said from day one that they intended to be candidates of change. Unfortunately the only change that will likely be found is in our pockets after they confiscate huge amounts of income as they promote the tax legislation through the rhetoric (Obama and Edwards) and through the records (Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee).

The message for change is a sound one. There are certainly things that deserve a better approach. But more government and class conflict (popular themes of each of these candidates) are not a solution.

Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton took a different approach. Romney postured himself as a bastion of stability and a force for normalcy. Clinton mentioned change but, what you really got from her was "experience" (e.g., all the funerals she attended as First Lady). Now that the experience message isn't resonating, these candidates are making dramatic shifts toward populist rhetoric. Ironically, Clinton's shift may have worked in New Hampshire (that appears to be the case at the time of the writing).

Romeny and Clinton seem to make better barometers than leaders. They have sensed a change in the political weather and are trying to accommodate the storm rather than their principles. We need principled leadership and not mere gauges of temperament.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Mike Huckabee is Trying to Have His Cake and Eat It Too

Mike Huckabee is trying to have his cake and eat it too. This isn't easy to accomplish in an environment that is difficult to even get a fair break.

For weeks Mitt Romney has opened his deep pockets in an effort to derail the Huckabee Express. The former governor from Arkansas has gone from minor player to the man to beat over the last few months. With an attitude that nears entitlement -- Romney has paid for this nomination after all -- he is throwing everything, including the kitchen sink at Huckabee.

Huckabee has based his campaign on being a nice guy, which has played no small role in fueling his success, in my opinion. Further, his wit and wisdom has made him stand out in an often unimpressive crowd.

It appears, though that Huckabee has had all he can tolerate and he has decided to go ugly, creating an ad that puts him on the offensive. He looked at it and concluded that it wasn't the kind of ad that Huckabee should run. It had the potential of doing more harm to his reputation than help it.

He was probably right, but ruined his good intentions by having a press conference announcing he wasn't going to run the ad and showing the media the “offensive” commercial his team had designed. The purpose was to say, "do you see what I could have unleashed on Romney?"

I assume Huckabee was hoping that the media would run the spot for him and give him free advertising, but with arms length distance from the campaign. There has been some play of the ad, but at the expense of his "good guy" image. This is not the kind of approach that has made Huckabee the serious contender he has become. It seems to be the results of a "Tier 2" operation representing what has become a "Tier 1" candidate. He might survive it, but if such tactics continue the future will not be bright for Huckabee, in my opinion.

As an aside, since people interpret such posts as endorsements or oppositions, I don't support Huckabee. In fact, his views on economic issues are very disconcerting (I suggest reading the Club for Growth reports of Huckabee and other candidates). I continue to strongly lean towards Fred Thompson and wait patiently for him to give me more reasons to do so.

Kevin Price is the Host of the Houston Business Show, M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650. You can hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Read his opinions at BizPlusBlog.com. He is also the Publisher of HoustonBusinessReview.com.

2008 Presidential Campaign Update

For several months I have been doing a series of articles called "See How They Run." This is the first time I have mentioned such in this blog since September. I did write a post at RedState on the poor performance of the person whom I thought I supported for President, Fred Thompson. In it I observed:

It was kind of fun at first. Watching Fred Thompson on the sidelines and critically pointing out the weaknesses of others and providing a resounding "I could do better."

Now that he is in the race, it still feels like we are waiting for him to jump in. He did a recent ad that slam dunks Romney on abortion and raised serious concerns about Huckabee's fiscal policies as governor, but as a rule, has done little to ignite conservatives. In fact, he almost seems relegated to hurting conservatives who have been in this race far longer in his efforts to catch up in this competitive niche.

Thompson is going to have to make the case for Thompson and not merely be the critic. Otherwise he will be lucky to be more than a footnote in this race. Also, after watching the debate tonight, it would also help if he memorized his lines. So much for all those years of acting.

So, why the lack of interest on my part in the election? It feels as though it is a forgone conclusion that Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic nomination and I get the impression that none of the Republicans will effectively challenge her. Unless something major happens, the 2008 election could become one of the least interesting in modern history.

Kevin Price Hosts the Houston Business Show Monday through Friday at 11 AM on CNN 650. Read the opinions of the Houston Business Show news team by subscribing to the weekly Houston Business Review newsletter.