Conservatives Fear of Obama Gives McCain Room for a Bold VP Choice

The choice of who will be the Republican Vice President nominee will likely be unusually important this election cycle. Typically the mantra is "do no harm." This year, because of the incredible move of the Democrats with Obama and the very boring presence of McCain, Republicans better go bold. The question is, how bold? Will that be measured by ethnicity? Gender? Skin color? Religion? Those are the questions Republican strategists should be asking. However, the list of most commonly mentioned candidates for the VP post makes me wonder.

My favorite choice, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, has largely taken himself out of consideration. It is too bad, because he did so much for McCain. He is charismatic, young, being the first Vice President born in the 1970s, very conservative (shoring up an area McCain has proven to be weak), he would make history as the first Indian American and Asian American elected to Vice President. In spite of his young age, he actually has a more substantial career than Barack Obama. I do believe he can be persuaded. I hope that happens.

Another often mentioned choice is Mitt Romney, who knows how to spend money for votes, but doesn't appear to know how to collect them. I don't think I have ever see a candidate spend more per vote and have less to show for it. Romney is charismatic and financially very successful, but he has "matured" in his political thinking too late for most conservatives. In his first Senate race against Ted Kennedy he was a liberal Republican. When he ran for Governor, it was as a moderate. Now, he tries to position himself as a conservative. The reality is, Romney brings very little to the ticket. Conservatives and Evangelicals seem as suspicious of him as they are McCain because of his Mormon beliefs and shifting philosophy. The only conservatives that seem passionate about Romney are the same ones who wanted McCain to lose if he received the Republican nomination. The choice of Romney would essentially guarantee that.

Many conservatives look at McCain in a similar way as they did Bob Dole in 1996. Not a person to get excited about. However, Dole was running against a moderate Democrat in Bill Clinton. A person who "ended poverty as we know it" and in that policy achievement found at least a small spot in the hearts of hardened conservatives. Barack Obama, on the other hand, brings absolute fear in the heart of most rank and file Republicans. It isn't because of his race, his questionable religious background, or even his age and inexperience that they worry. Instead, it his "embarrassment" of the way the US is viewed by the rest of the world and his wife's view that the US is simply mean and for the first time now deserves her being proud of it.

I believe McCain can safely assume he will get conservative voters no mater who he has as Vice President. This is radical coming from me. I strongly wanted a true believer on the top of the ticket, so giving up both spots shows how desperate the situation has become. But it is just that. McCain needs to make some history of his own. Here are a few people that could help him do just that:

* Colin Powell. The former General and Secretary of State would give the American people a leader who inspires respect and authority, taking away some of Obama's thunder. He is "blamed" for the evidence that led to the war in Iraq, but he is respected by liberals and moderates alike. I believe the biggest concern that potential Obama supporters have is his inexperience. Colin Powell allows voters to have their cake and eat it too. With a respected and experienced black leader like Powell.

* Senator Joseph Lieberman. The American people have grown exhausted over the political division in Washington, DC. Lieberman, who would be America's first Jewish Vice President, is now considered an Independent, but has decades on his biography as a Democrat. I have little doubt that he would jump at the opportunity. On the down side, he is not particularly young or charismatic, but he is well like and would offer an opportunity for national unity (verses mere party unity) that we haven't seen in years.

* Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. For conservatives, Rice is fairly solid on foreign policy and an unknown on domestic policy. She is attractive and articulate. She is black and female and would be a huge attraction for Clinton supporters who believe their standard bearer was mistreated. Meanwhile, blacks who have been concerned about how prepared Obama is would find Rice a safe bet. In fact, Rice could seal the deal for the huge percentage of female voters who say they won't vote for Obama.

If McCain is going to play it safe, he need to consider Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Huckabee would help shore up conservative voters (although he is no Reagan conservative) and did the best job of any candidate on his vote per dollar ratio. He is an excellent grass roots organizer who would do a great job in the McCain effort.

I hope McCain goes bold and electrifies his ticket with a VP who could mobilize the many independents who are planning on voting for the first time. He needs to go bold and go deep, his electoral success depends upon it.

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See How They Run: The Truth Behind Giuliani and McCain as Front Runners

The front runners for the GOP nomination for President are former mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani (see photo) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Giuliani has the lead, which seems to be widening daily. The truth is, neither one of these gentlemen will likely be on the top of the ticket by November 2008 and if they are, Republicans will probably lose.

The GOP has always treated the conservative wing of its party as a loud and obnoxious group that tries to wield too much influence. The truth of the matter is, the conservatives are the tail that wag the dog. Every candidate that has successfully obtained the GOP nomination since Ronald Reagan has run as a strong conservative. Bob Dole was the only one the conservatives seriously doubted and he lost when it mattered in November of 1996. The only other Republican to lose since than was George H.W. Bush for reelection. He convinced Republicans that Reagan had converted him to a true believer by 1988 , but supported a tax increase that was philosophical anathema to conservatives and poison to the economy. Republicans can't get away with statements such as "read my lips, no new taxes" and pass a significant tax increase once in power, just ask the first Bush.

So how does one explain the surveys that have Giuliani and McCain winning by a huge margin among GOP voters? There are several reasons for this:

* Many people vote in the primary, but do nothing in the Fall. Only the conservatives activists, as a whole, get people to the polls for the GOP in November.

* It is really early in the race and both of these candidates carry messages and histories that resonate with conservative voters. McCain is, in spite of how much I disagree with him on many of his views, a war hero and he is largely right when it comes to Iraq. Meanwhile, Giuliani was amazing during 9/11 2001 and won every one's heart as the nation's mayor. But mayor and President are two different things and he doesn't hold positions on social or even economic issues that lines up with the party faithful. However, Americans as a whole are solidly behind winning the war in Iraq and both of these candidates have taken the most hard line positions on that issue.

In the end these candidates positions on social issues and taxes will likely come back to haunt them. I am just hoping that happens before Republicans nominate one of them.

When It Comes to '08, Conservatives are in Big Trouble

When I was in college I was involved with an organization called Young Conservatives of Texas. It was, and appears to remain, an excellent organization for young people to think seriously about politics and to affect change based on that worldview. I'm one of the old timers, recruited by the founder, Steve Munisteri, himself. Recently there was a reception in Houston, Texas for the alumni of the organization.

I attended the event with the hope of hearing some encouragement about the upcoming election. What I got was a great deal of disappointment as virtually every member told me, flatly, they had no idea who they were going to support. I joined YCT back in 1980. As you can imagine, the choice was easy and every member I knew proudly and tirelessly supported Ronald Reagan. What makes me nervous is that Young Liberals (if such a group exists) appears to be in uniform agreement behind Barack Obama (with rare exception). When I was with YCT we weren't always correct, but we were certainly always RIGHT (sorry, I just had to say that and yes, we were correct about Reagan). And the enthusiasm for Reagan wasn't like anything I had seen, until the recent rise of Obama.

It is still early in this election cycle and victory is anything but sure for the Democrats. But Conservatives better get a clue or they could easily find themselves with a moderate nominee that will lack the grass roots appeal that is necessary for winning a Presidential election. After all, I'm sure we all remember Bob Dole.