See How They Run: The Truth Behind Giuliani and McCain as Front Runners

The front runners for the GOP nomination for President are former mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani (see photo) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Giuliani has the lead, which seems to be widening daily. The truth is, neither one of these gentlemen will likely be on the top of the ticket by November 2008 and if they are, Republicans will probably lose.

The GOP has always treated the conservative wing of its party as a loud and obnoxious group that tries to wield too much influence. The truth of the matter is, the conservatives are the tail that wag the dog. Every candidate that has successfully obtained the GOP nomination since Ronald Reagan has run as a strong conservative. Bob Dole was the only one the conservatives seriously doubted and he lost when it mattered in November of 1996. The only other Republican to lose since than was George H.W. Bush for reelection. He convinced Republicans that Reagan had converted him to a true believer by 1988 , but supported a tax increase that was philosophical anathema to conservatives and poison to the economy. Republicans can't get away with statements such as "read my lips, no new taxes" and pass a significant tax increase once in power, just ask the first Bush.

So how does one explain the surveys that have Giuliani and McCain winning by a huge margin among GOP voters? There are several reasons for this:

* Many people vote in the primary, but do nothing in the Fall. Only the conservatives activists, as a whole, get people to the polls for the GOP in November.

* It is really early in the race and both of these candidates carry messages and histories that resonate with conservative voters. McCain is, in spite of how much I disagree with him on many of his views, a war hero and he is largely right when it comes to Iraq. Meanwhile, Giuliani was amazing during 9/11 2001 and won every one's heart as the nation's mayor. But mayor and President are two different things and he doesn't hold positions on social or even economic issues that lines up with the party faithful. However, Americans as a whole are solidly behind winning the war in Iraq and both of these candidates have taken the most hard line positions on that issue.

In the end these candidates positions on social issues and taxes will likely come back to haunt them. I am just hoping that happens before Republicans nominate one of them.