See How They Run: The Potential for Precedent

The 2008 election for President is full of potential firsts. There is the possibility of the first female President with Hillary Clinton, or first African American with Barack Obama, or the first Mormon with Mitt Romney (see photo, left). Clinton and Obama are considered the two Democratic front runners and Romney is considered (barely) in the top tier of Republican candidates.

What are their chances?

* Hillary Clinton isn't likely to win, in my opinion, and many rank and file Republicans hopes she gets her party's nomination in the belief that she will spell defeat for Democrats in November. She is considered one of the most polarizing politicians in the US today. She has the highest negatives (and, ironically, positives) of all the major candidates. Winning the campaign for President is predicated on candidates picking up voters as other candidates pull out of the race. I believe that those who will support her, are largely supporting her now. The defeat of other candidates will find their voters going elsewhere.

* Barack Obama's biggest problem is that he is simply too liberal to be President of the United States. He wants to dramatically increase taxes on wealth creation, he promotes socialized medicine, and he generally behaves as though the US is the single biggest problem on the world scene. Obama is even having problems among African American voters with many from that natural base going to Clinton (thanks largely to the popularity of her husband). I believe Americans are ready for a person of any race, but not this particular African American. This isn't due to skin color, but due to the content of his beliefs.

* Mitt Romney is the most likely of these three candidates to break precedence. The former governor of Massachusetts is getting some harassment because of his Mormon religion, but in the end I think he will over come those objections. Romney is charismatic, comes across as very Conservative (although his positions have evolved over time), and has an excellent family life (very important to the crucial Evangelical voters). There are things in the Mormon theology that should be of concern to the general Christian population. But most Americans, even Evangelical voters, don't study theology. If he looks, acts, and talks like a Christian -- which he certainly does -- he will be embraced by most of them. His beliefs are certainly more attractive to the Conservative base than those of Guiliani or McCain.

In the end, I have my doubts that any of the above are going to pull it off. I believe the next President will probably be a former or sitting Governor and from the West or South. I say this based on the population changes we have seen over the last several decades and the fact that virtually every candidate has fitted that bill since 1960. There are lots of months elections between now and 2008, it should be an interesting race.

See How They Run: The First in a Series on the 2008 Elections

There are few things that have a bigger impact on a business's bottom line than government. In fact, government is a huge shareholder in virtually every business that takes huge amounts of money without helping a company's performance and actually undermines their productivity through excessive regulations and licensure laws (ask me how I really feel). Therefore, being informed about who is running is crucial in order to make sure that the people that are chosen do as little damage as possible. So over the next two years (can you believe it) I intend to do several articles on some of the dynamics of the race, discuss who is running, and in a very bold move describe very closely the next president even before the first primaries are held. In fact, you should be able to guess who that candidate will be by my description (just wait, I think it will be impressive).

In the posts on this subject that come I will discuss:

* Why they are running so early.

* Do candidates getting started this early weaken sitting incumbants?

* What role race, gender, and religion will play in the election.

* Who each of the candidates are (in both parties) and what their chances of winning.

* The role the Internet will play in these elections (like TV, a largely new media in 1960 destroyed Richard Nixon; the Web is knocking off candidates with tongues that slip and other behaviors).

I'm sure over time that several other items will come up and I would love to hear from others on other issues I should cover. With the possibility of the election of a woman, an African American, Hispanic, Mormon, and who knows what else I am missing, 2008 promises to be a very interesting year indeed. And even if we elect another white guy again this election will be historic because we will not have had an incumbant President or Vice President on the ballot in any Primary. We haven't seen that since 1928.