How to Determine Gas Prices in a Year

I don't want to mislead with my title. I don't own a crystal ball and can't predict exactly what fuel will cost at certain times. However, we have all been studying fuel prices rather closely the last few years and have begun to be able to see linkage between certain events and gas prices.

For example, as prices hit an all time high and hovering around $4.00 a gallon in the early part of the summer, House Republicans declared they were have a "staycation" like many other Americans and taking care of business by focusing on energy. The theme of the ad hoc Congress was "drill here, drill now" and the public and media took notice of the action. So did the oil speculators who lowered the price of oil per barrel, which showed up in our gas prices.

Another example was Senator John McCain declaring that he was changing his historic position of being opposed to domestic drilling and stating that everything should be brought to the table for consideration (biodesel, coal, etc.), including exploiting oil in the United States. He placed particular emphasis on the latter because of how that view stood in contrast to the Democrats position of avoiding all domestic drilling. The results was the further lowering of gas prices.

So, oil futures are based on projected consumption (demand) and projected supplies. The lack of oil in this country is not based on scarcity (which is created by nature), but because of shortages (which is based on government policies). With that, the single biggest factor about future supplies and prices of oil is the government. Oil speculators are convinced that the Democrats are hostile to domestic production (just look at their voting record and stated postions) and that the Republicans seem to take the pursuit seriously. With that, here is a quick breakdown of the future of prices:

• If the Democrats win both the Congress and the White House, expect gas prices to grow exponentially. I project them to more than double the current $3.00 a gallon level by the elections of 2010. That $6.00 a gallon rate could be rather conservative.


• If the Republicans win both the Congress and the White House, expect a rather significant drop in gas prices as long as the Legislative Branch makes domestic drilling a top priority. If they do that, you could see prices back around $2.00 or even less within two years.
  
• If you have divided government where different parties dominate the Legislative and Executive branches, you will likely see prices remain about the same with a continued upward trend.
  

Don't be fooled by arguments that passing legislation that encourages domestic drilling won't immediately lower prices. We know that serious discussion alone can achieve that. If Americans are concerned about lowering gas prices, they should be very deliberate about the way they vote.

A few weeks ago gas prices began to rise at a rapid rate. This was about the time the media began to declare that it was unlikely McCain would win. It is largely based on futures.

So what about the recent drop in gas prices? Everyone is thrilled with them going below $3.00 a gallon in many parts of the country. Why this is happening is the "bad news" to this otherwise exciting news. The current financial crisis is now having a direct impact on gas prices. Oil futures project that we are going to have people driving less, companies transporting fewer goods less often, and factories demanding less energy because of projected manufacturing declines. The good news of lower fuel costs is actually an omen of bigger economic problems.

Watch the headlines and observe gas prices. You will see the link. Think carefully how you vote, because it could profoundly impact your financial future.

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Why TV May Sweat the Future

There have been numerous changes in the way people find the news, entertainment, and information they want over the last decade and most of the volatility is driven by one thing, the Internet. The Internet has required every media to innovate or become obsolete and very few traditional media maintain only one presence. Virtually everyone wants to be seen online.

Still, in spite of the best efforts to become current, television is beginning to assess its future. Recently, Mediabistro.com indicated that the ratings game is giving people a future glimpse at the long term viability of TV. It noted: "The adults 18-49 demographic remains the gold standard among advertisers -- yet TV audiences keep getting greyer. According to Nielsen's 2008-09 national universe estimates, the 55-plus age bracket is by far the fastest-growing TV audience demo -- accelerating at twice the rate of the overall TV audience."

This is very grim for TV. That demographic is usually no longer accumulating wealth, but instead preserving. They don't plan on dramatically increasing income, but trying to hold on to what they have. Advertisers worship that group that is just out of high school and up to the late 40s. They are making money and they are spending. It seems to make sense that this group will only continue to grow older and those who are behind it in age will only shrink as they become even more web savvy.

Why is this happening? Because people are finding what they want, when they want it, on the Internet. I don't need to tell you that you can find all the video you can possibly consume, audio you want to hear, and articles you need to read, online. Furthermore, you usually have absolute control of the access.

TV costs money (if you want enough channels that are worth watching) and if you want to control the times you watch programming, you have to pay extra for it (in the form of a DVR or TIVO). Increasingly, TV seems so "yesterday". In spite of its bets efforts to get more TV content on the web, most people see it limping behind the web.

Even as I prepare to give my radio show a more national presence and a TV "feel" (via video) I wouldn't even bother pursuing such if it weren't for the Internet. However, because of the Internet, the fact we own a web platform with a presence in virtually every major US city, we will have a national news program in the preferred media of the younger generations. I believe the massive shift from TV to the web will only continue.

TV won't go away, but it is going to have to continue to adapt to remain relevant.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters. Subscribe to his newsletter here.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

The Bright Future Through the Eyes of Wired

Any reader of this blog knows my thoughts about Wired Magazine. It offers very optimistic insights into the future and helps readers to best prepare for that future than any magazine on the market today, in my opinion. It isn't always done through powerful and persuasive articles (although there are plenty of them), but even through a simple picture like the one in this post. I apologize for the size, but you need it large in order to truly appreciate it.

If you look closely you will find:

Patient: Maggie Bond
Tumor Ex 30MG
Tablet
Take one tablet by mouth 3X daily for treatment of lung cancer. Tumor should disappear by day 20.

It goes on to mention quantities, the doctor, refills, etc. The date? 1/18/14. Right around the corner. Although this is fiction, I believe that the dramatic changes going on in medicine today supports such optimism.

Everything we read and hear shows that cancer is on decline, even as people are living longer than ever and we have our largest population in history. Furthermore, the treatments are becoming less invasive and with more dramatic results.

Sure, at this point, this is wishful thinking. But it is the type of optimism grounded in fact. This epitomizes the style of Wired Magazine. That is why it is one of the only magazines I literally wait for with great anticipation. This feature is called "Artifacts from the Future", which is a reoccurring theme in the publication. This picture speaks a thousand very optimistic words and offers hope and excitement about the future. That is also what Wired Magazine does for its readers each month. At $10 a year for 12 issues, it is a very wise investment.