Why TV May Sweat the Future

There have been numerous changes in the way people find the news, entertainment, and information they want over the last decade and most of the volatility is driven by one thing, the Internet. The Internet has required every media to innovate or become obsolete and very few traditional media maintain only one presence. Virtually everyone wants to be seen online.

Still, in spite of the best efforts to become current, television is beginning to assess its future. Recently, Mediabistro.com indicated that the ratings game is giving people a future glimpse at the long term viability of TV. It noted: "The adults 18-49 demographic remains the gold standard among advertisers -- yet TV audiences keep getting greyer. According to Nielsen's 2008-09 national universe estimates, the 55-plus age bracket is by far the fastest-growing TV audience demo -- accelerating at twice the rate of the overall TV audience."

This is very grim for TV. That demographic is usually no longer accumulating wealth, but instead preserving. They don't plan on dramatically increasing income, but trying to hold on to what they have. Advertisers worship that group that is just out of high school and up to the late 40s. They are making money and they are spending. It seems to make sense that this group will only continue to grow older and those who are behind it in age will only shrink as they become even more web savvy.

Why is this happening? Because people are finding what they want, when they want it, on the Internet. I don't need to tell you that you can find all the video you can possibly consume, audio you want to hear, and articles you need to read, online. Furthermore, you usually have absolute control of the access.

TV costs money (if you want enough channels that are worth watching) and if you want to control the times you watch programming, you have to pay extra for it (in the form of a DVR or TIVO). Increasingly, TV seems so "yesterday". In spite of its bets efforts to get more TV content on the web, most people see it limping behind the web.

Even as I prepare to give my radio show a more national presence and a TV "feel" (via video) I wouldn't even bother pursuing such if it weren't for the Internet. However, because of the Internet, the fact we own a web platform with a presence in virtually every major US city, we will have a national news program in the preferred media of the younger generations. I believe the massive shift from TV to the web will only continue.

TV won't go away, but it is going to have to continue to adapt to remain relevant.

Kevin Price's articles are found daily in national publications such as USA Today, Chicago Sun Times, and Reuters. Subscribe to his newsletter here.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review.

How to Market to Houston Businesses

Secret: This article will work in almost any city, but even the title is a part of the marketing strategy. At the time of this writing most of my clients are in Houston, I want them to find me in a simple Google search. I think you get the idea.

The way people market today is predicated on factors that really didn't exist just a few years ago. You would almost think that someone would have told many marketing businesses that they have no legitimate reason to exist with the advent of the Internet. Or, at the very least, they should make it clear that there expertise doesn't include the Internet if such is not the case. Ironically, some of the largest and most prestigious lag far behind in developing Internet based strategies.

I believe in the convergence of media. I believe some people like some sources of information while others might prefer a different means. I like everything; audio, video and (I'm old) articles. Some like TV, but increasingly many prefer to watch TV online (as Rupert Murdoch likes to say, "when and where they want it."). My firm uses TV, radio, podcasts (video and audio), articles, blogs, etc. to reach audience for our clients. With over 100,000 unique viewers and around 1 million hits each month, this strategy is working.

The hardest people to reach are business owners. It is quite common for them to work 10 hours plus, but still want to be kept informed. These individuals are quick to turn the page at the first sign of an ad, flip a channel at first sight of the commercial, or spin the radio at first sound of a break in their programming. My answer to that problem is simple. Get your message across when people are listening and watching. The group I describe as "the Accumulators" demand such.

I produced an audio about this important demographic group and I have been told by colleagues that recognizing this group and developing strategies to reach them can make or break a business. I have been encouraged to more vigorously spread the word on it, which is why I am writing this post.

I was recently interviewed by Robbie Adair of the Media A-Team on the power of the convergence of media (an essential element in reaching Accumulators) and want to invite readers to watch it here. Until people understand the importance of a multi-media approach and the role Accumulators are playing in the economy, they are going to find acquiring business a much more frustrating proposition.

Note: Order Kevin Price's audio program The Accumulators, which explains the impact that the Internet is having on marketing and consumer behavior. It is available online here for only $10 plus p and h. Receive the Houston Business Review e-zine free each week by clicking here.

Katie Couric: In the News Again, And She Isn't Happy

I have been writing about the decline and demise of Katie Couric since she began her gig as anchor of CBS Evening News. Couric, who arrived at the network with much fanfare and a salary that is twice as high as her counterpart at ABC News (Charles Gibson) and three times more than Brian Williams of NBC. She has maintained a solid hold on third place virtually through out her short tenure.

Some are crying "sexism" and I actually projected that would play a role back in September when she started. The average viewer of a nightly news program is 60 years old and predominantly male. Such individuals may not be interested in getting their news from a relatively young lady like Couric. I argued back then that the viewer would be interested in hearing from someone more like them or the one who is like that smart older son.

Furthermore, the same demographic (male and 60) tends to be very conservative and Couric has made a career of showing her liberal preferences. I'll never forget her interview with Senator John Kerry (D-MA) when he ran for President in 2004. She was in awe of his "intelligence" and "charisma." I honestly expected her to jump in his lap! Much of the decline of Dan Rather was due to his obvious political agenda, such an approach wouldn't work with Couric either, regardless of how attractive audiences may find her.

In the end, there is little that can be done to save evening news, not even Williams or Gibson. It will likely always attract this shrinking demographic, because younger Accumulators (people in the prime of the career and taking care of children and parents) are getting their news online. Before long, relative "nobodies" will be doing the TV version and the "rock stars" of the industry will be exclusively on the Internet.

Cyber Monday and the Continued Decline of Traditional Businesses

All the analysts are trying to size up what we are learning from the current holiday season when it comes to business. At first we were told that happy days were here again because the huge volume of sales on Black Friday (the first day most retail businesses go in the black, which is the day after Thanksgiving). Now we are told that the large volume was due to ridiculous sales that came too early (in the opinion of analysts), indicating a lack of confidence in consumers by retailers.

Regardless of what conclusions people want to come up with, this much I feel confident in saying: the traditional business is in serious trouble and days couldn't be happier for businesses on the web. According to Business Week, sales on Cyber Monday (the first Monday after Black Friday when people make purchases on the web on a large scale) grew an impressive 26% since last year, showing the continued shift from traditional stores. Why are we seeing the continued growth of online shopping?

I think it can be attributed to several reasons, including the fact that one can do it when he or she wants and people can do it largely how they want. Also, it doesn't interfere with work, which is often the case with traditional stores (many people often don't have time to go in the evenings either, the Web is far more convenient). Shopping online is becoming increasingly safer, especially physically (I haven't seen a computer mug anyone yet). Furthermore, there are no lines, which I know I despise.

However, I think the most important factor is that the brick and mortar businesses are trying the same kind of techniques they used to much less sophisticated consumers in decades past. They want us at their stores at midnight, or the sales are only for short time increments, or some other ridiculous treatment that doesn't meet the needs of the accumulators that are largely driving the economy today. In a recent interview Rupert Murdoch put it best when he said, "people want what they want when they want it." The Internet does just that. Sure there are still sales online, but they are typically measured by days, not hours. Treating consumers like animals who will jump hoops didn't work well in years past and it certainly doesn't work now. In stores, it feels as though businesses rule. On the Web, people feel like they rule. We shouldn't be surprised by the shift.

Fox Business News Channel?

Jon Fine, in a recent article in Business Week, asks the question as to whether Fox News is serious about pursuing a Business News channel in light of the problems that CNBC has had. He concluded that, in spite of how choppy the environment, Fox's philosophy and its multi-media approach, would make it a likely success.

I agree with him on all points. The future of business news -- in fact all news -- is on the Internet. Increasingly, TV, radio, and newspapers will become supports to the Web, in my opinion. Furthermore, the case is even more obvious when it comes to reaching the business interested demographic, a group I call the accumulators. These people worship at the alter of time -- they want what they want, when they want it -- and that is why the web is so important. Fox's growing Web presence is accommodating that need.

Furthermore, I believe that most business owners have a Fox News view of the world and Rupert Murdoch will not only attract many of the CNBC audience, he will also bring on many more who have been disinterested in the current business news options.

One thing I have come to believe is that it isn't smart to hedge your bets against Murdoch. I think Fox Business News, or whatever they call it, will do very well.

Meet the Accumulators and How to Reach Them

The economy and market place are changing rapidly. The growth of the Internet are making consumers more demanding than ever. As a result, marketers have begun to identify a class of people that is quickly being defined as the "Accumulator Class." This group is one of two major trends in marketing that this article will focus on and it has has the following unique characteristics:

• Typically, they are in their mid 30s to early 50s.
• They are one of the top income generating groups. They are affluent or are optimistic in their ability to be affluent and want to leverage their time towards that objective.
• They are at the point in their careers where earning income for their families and future are among their greatest goals.
• They have come to realize that the leveraging of their time is the most important thing they can do to increase their wealth. Therefore, unlike earlier generations that would be inclined to do it themselves, this group realizes it makes more sense to pay someone else to do it (whatever "it" is). They tend to center their lives around convenience and are very demanding.
• This group takes control over as much of their time as possible. No longer do they read stale weeklies with yesterday's news or agree to meet Brian Williams or even Katie Couric at a specific time for information. Many go to the web and tie a few video or audio programs into their own, customized, news broadcast (or podcast). In fact, the average viewer of nightly news is 60 years old. This group is still comfortable with being where its told to be to get the information they want, but they are of little interest to most marketers.
• If you are interested in reaching this group of Accumulators, you are going to have to design your marketing towards meeting the specific demands of these drivers.
  

A second major trend after recognizing the accumulators is the rise of educational marketing. In many respects, this is the corollary to the first point. People have grown impatient with advertising and will usually only trade their time for information. Currently, radio stations are trying to persuade listeners to stay with so-called free radio rather than paying for it. Currently, approximately 10 million Americans, most in the demanding Accumulator Class, have made the shift to XM or Sirius. They are willing to pay not to hear advertising. So how are advertisers reaching a reluctant audience? The following are a few examples:

• They are sponsoring shows and putting their name on it, like the old days.
• They are requiring the audience to look at advertising before they can get their information. Apparently, busy consumers are willing to make a trade off, since recent data has shown that the fastest growing way for getting news is through on-demand resources.
• Increasingly, businesses are buying air time in order to convey information, rather than merely doing an infomercial. Many of the radio and TV shows you now see are far more sophisticated than their infomercial ancestors. They know that people will not watch a 30 minute commercial any more than a 30 second one.
• These same sources take a multi-informational approach. They provide free newsletters, have programs on TV and/or radio, and virtually always have a website.
• Virtually every business is developing innovative ways to use educational marketing and find it essential to their future success.

In sum, highly sophisticated consumers are forcing advertisers to give them what they want, the way they want it, and when they want it. These individuals drive the new marketing environment. The only businesses that will thrive are those who develop a marketing plan that acknowledges such.

Hey, Katie Couric, I Hate to Say I told You So

Hey Katie, I actually miss you on NBC's Today and wish we had you back. I'm also sorry to be right about my prediction shortly after you took the helm of CBS Nightly News that it wouldn't work out for you. But right I was, it appears. And although you may not be leaving your anchor spot any time soon, it appears you won't be raising your ratings much either.

The reasons why I said it wouldn't work back on Sept. 5 of 2006:

1) It isn't a real news program, but a mini version of a news magazine.

2) She isn't the right approach to reach the typical nightly news viewer who is 60 years old. She is too young and possibly too female, for the hard news crowd who tends to watch that type of programming (I believe viewers of such programs prefer an older son or the wise next door neighbor over a younger female).

3) Finally, that demographic (60 year olds) isn't even the group advertisers are trying to reach. Rather they are looking for the affluent and time crunched "Accumulators", who get the news when they want and it isn't at 6:30 Eastern.

She went from number 1 her first week as anchor when people tuned in out of curiosity and she is already down to number 3. CBS's $15 million lady may already be in trouble. But I think that was the case before she even did her first broadcast.

Katie Couric's Big Day

Today was Katie's big day as host of CBS Evening News. She made history by being the first female anchor of the most prestigious and important 30 minutes of news. Yes, I know, that is a lot of hyperbole, but that is the media's position on it, not mine. In reality, evening news is in desperate shape and Katie Couric wearing little to no clothes would not be able to likely save its staggering decline in viewership (by the way she was fully and appropriately dressed). Furthermore, the approach they took with Katie will likely contribute to this media's further decline.

First of all, the new approach is no longer the evening news. It is, instead, a mini version of a news magazine such as 20/20, Primetime Live, or 60 Minutes. Instead of making sure the major news stories were covered in less than 30 minutes, Katie gave Morgan Spurlock of "Supersize Me" fame an opportunity to trash our "divided nation" and to express his opinion that we need to stop operating in extremes in her new "Free Speech" segment. Furthermore she had Thomas Friedman of the New York Times on who discussed how we need to restore the friendly US that much of the world loved and appreciated (and often used as a doormat, but we won't go there). The new format was mildly entertaining, but it wasn't the "Evening News."

Second, it isn't the right approach to reach the typical Evening News viewer. That viewer is 60 years old and likes to hear from older sons (such as Brian Williams and Charlie Gibson) and not necessarily from that "chatty" Couric girl. I'm just talking the typical senior, in my opinion, not necessarily my view. I don't see her surviving long trying to reach the senior crowd. Further, the networks are actually trying to distance themselves from seniors and are trying to pursue the all important Accumulators -- 35 to 55 year olds who largely drive the economy today. Which is exactly why they pursued Katie, who falls in the age group and other parts of that key demographic.

Third, she won't likely reach the Accumulators either. Most of them are doing a lot of things at 5:30, but watching the evening news isn't one of them. They are picking up kids, making meals, taking care of parents, or several other things that have nothing to do with the smiling Katie. This audience is reached now, largely, through the Internet, which allows them to watch the footage they want to watch and see it when they care to see it. In no time the podcast version of the news will have a much larger audience then the TV broadcast, but with the rate evening news is going, that won't be saying much.

I hate to be negative. I actually like Katie and miss her on the Today Show, but I believe this experiment will fail and she will have an audience significantly smaller than she did early each morning on NBC. By the way, the morning shows like Today are about the only viable way to reach the all important Accumulators because they are busy multi tasking and find the background noise of information and the relaxed environment of the program a great way to launch a day. It is sad she left this viable place to reach an audience to go to the largely dead network news. But don't worry, we will likely see her on some other day time show in the not too distant future. Watch out The View!