New York Times is Worth How Much?

The New York Times, which is really a national newspaper with a comparable circulation to USA Today, has been reported to have a remarkably low value, according to Business Week. How low did the New York Times go? On Wall Street, its trading value has plummeted to half of what it enjoyed from just a year ago to $12.48 per share. That means it only has a market cap of less than $1.8 billion.

Business Week states, to "put this in perspective, CBS recently acquired tech publisher CNET, a much weaker media brand, for $1.8 billion. Add in the company's $1.1 billion of debt, subtract $42 million for its cash on hand, and the company's total enterprise value—a valuation measure that totals up those items in such a fashion—is just $2.85 billion."

Newspapers are taking a beating every where. In 1993 the Boston Globe sold for over $1 billion. Last year it was being marketed for around half that ($500 to $600 million). Most newspapers have faced a crushing blow because of the Internet and the rise of the new media. The Wall Street Journal, which was sold by the Bancroft family to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp for $5 billion (roughly twice its value on the stock market) is a happy exception to what is going on in old media. The fact the Bancroft family -- which seemed very connected to its publication -- sold it at all, demonstrates how concerned they were about the future of their holding.

Increasingly newspapers are trying to make the shift to the web as their primary media vehicle. New York Times has even gone so far to say that it could be exclusively online in a few years. Unfortunately, many newer companies are well ahead of them in this game and brand loyalty simply isn't what it use to be. The only newspapers that have enjoyed an increase in advertising dollars in recent years are those that are free. Be the writing in the newspaper or on the Internet, the writing on the wall isn't very positive for many of the strongest names in print media.

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Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Watch Out for the Fakes

For quite some time we have been told that watches are in decline. That cell phone, which also computes, searches the web, and serves several other functions (including facilitating conversations) is now also the standard time piece for the younger generations. In fact, at 46 I am anything but the "younger set," but I find myself simply not looking for my watch because I know I can pull out my phone to tell the time.

Now, a recent article by Business Week is finding that biggest brands of watches is taking a beating from the fakes. The problem of counterfit goods isn't limited to fakes, as seen by a recent slide show done by the magazine for AOL. See the link to the slide show above.

What items should you keep an eye out for by the person in the trench coat near the alley? Well, the winners of the "Plagiarius Awards" for best fakes include:

* The copy cat of the Fortis B-42, the watch worn by Cosmonauts. The original costs over $2,000.00, but significantly less by that guy named "Louie."

* The "Two in One" Salt and Pepper shakers from high end home good stores.

* "Trend Line V3 Vegatable Slicer." The fake comes with huge savings, but will it last as long? And what about the damage done to the innovator of the original?

* The PND Heating System Component.

* Others copied included the MEM faucet and very popular braided bracelets. Visit all of them in the slide show above.

From the time we were young we have been warned about the need for "buyers beware." With improvements in technology and, in my opinion, the even greater disregard of intellectual property rights than in any other time in history, the warning is more important now than ever.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Changes at Business Week

There is a cliché that “style is not as important as substance, but people won’t notice your substance if you lack style.” Business Week magazine has undergone a very serious style change this month – the first in four years. I know why magazines are doing such these days, they are trying to figure out how to compete against the Internet, they like the buzz (even if it is bad, I presume) that any change brings, and there are often substantive reasons for a change in format.

The magazine contends that the changes are intended to make the publication easier to navigate and better to read. Furthermore, the change is also in content with a shift from executive lifestyle to more hard business news. I assume that those changes are fostered by the invasion of the Wall Street Journal Weekend Edition and the heavy emphasis placed by magazines such as Forbes and Fortune in this arena. Furthermore, I always liked Business Week for being focused on the real world of business and am glad to see it return to its roots. It is among the reasons it is one of my favorite business publications.

When I first saw the magazine’s new design I noticed the McGraw-Hill label prominently displayed. When I think of McGraw-Hill, I think of textbooks. This publication is decades old and has always been owned by the book publisher, but I had no idea. Historically, it has been about the content, not the content provider. Those days are gone and now every company is doing everything it can to promote its brand and that would include McGraw-Hill.

That label, the slightly larger size, and the wider margins gave the publication a dramatically different look. It provided a look that I have to describe as some what “academic.” Unfortunately, most of us gave up publications with an academic look when we were in college. Some even ceremoniously burned the books used that final semester to put the whole experience behind them, though I won’t mention any names.

It is too early to say I don’t like the changes. I need to spend a little more time with them. The truth is, however, I will get most of my Business Week content online like I have for the last several years. I hope they don’t take an academic approach there. Those university web sites seem very complicated.

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Is Harry Potter in Trouble?

It is times such as this that I'm glad that my kids largely ignore my work. My daughter and three of my sons are big time Harry Potter (photo) fans and if they knew what I was writing today, they would be upset.

The July 2nd issue of Business Week has an article entitled "The Twisted Economics of Harry Potter" and in it, the writer seems to be saying that the Potter books may have lost the magic touch. It makes this claim by looking at a few of its allies and partners:

* Scholastic -- stock for the educational book company is at a low we haven't seen in five years and the Pottermania is about to end. This doesn't bode well for the kid book distributor.

* Bloomsbury -- the worldwide publisher of Harry's book has taken a 74% plunge over the last year. It is down about 40% over the past year.

* Big booksellers -- Amazon.com and Wal-Mart have cut the price of the popular book in half trading in profits for more store visitors.

* Independents -- behind the parties in Harry's name there are big concerns that they won't sell many books if the major sellers are charging less than the actual publishers.

* Warner Brothers -- profits and sales are down both last year and the first quarter, but is expecting to bounce back nicely with the release of a new movie.

* Universal Orlando -- the park is in a position to invest $500 million on a theme park attraction based on Harry Potter. Let's just hope they choose a character that survives the last book.

The article implies that these facts may be indicative of a weakening interest in Harry Potter. I don't think so. True, Potter's story dragged on for years and the end is somewhat anti-climatic, no matter who dies. But I think the major indicators of "decline" mentioned by Business Week are tied to Potter in a most ironic way. It isn't because people are no longer interested in Potter, but that there is a genuine concern of a serious hang over for such companies when there is no longer a new book in the works.

Cyber Monday and the Continued Decline of Traditional Businesses

All the analysts are trying to size up what we are learning from the current holiday season when it comes to business. At first we were told that happy days were here again because the huge volume of sales on Black Friday (the first day most retail businesses go in the black, which is the day after Thanksgiving). Now we are told that the large volume was due to ridiculous sales that came too early (in the opinion of analysts), indicating a lack of confidence in consumers by retailers.

Regardless of what conclusions people want to come up with, this much I feel confident in saying: the traditional business is in serious trouble and days couldn't be happier for businesses on the web. According to Business Week, sales on Cyber Monday (the first Monday after Black Friday when people make purchases on the web on a large scale) grew an impressive 26% since last year, showing the continued shift from traditional stores. Why are we seeing the continued growth of online shopping?

I think it can be attributed to several reasons, including the fact that one can do it when he or she wants and people can do it largely how they want. Also, it doesn't interfere with work, which is often the case with traditional stores (many people often don't have time to go in the evenings either, the Web is far more convenient). Shopping online is becoming increasingly safer, especially physically (I haven't seen a computer mug anyone yet). Furthermore, there are no lines, which I know I despise.

However, I think the most important factor is that the brick and mortar businesses are trying the same kind of techniques they used to much less sophisticated consumers in decades past. They want us at their stores at midnight, or the sales are only for short time increments, or some other ridiculous treatment that doesn't meet the needs of the accumulators that are largely driving the economy today. In a recent interview Rupert Murdoch put it best when he said, "people want what they want when they want it." The Internet does just that. Sure there are still sales online, but they are typically measured by days, not hours. Treating consumers like animals who will jump hoops didn't work well in years past and it certainly doesn't work now. In stores, it feels as though businesses rule. On the Web, people feel like they rule. We shouldn't be surprised by the shift.

Fox Business News Channel?

Jon Fine, in a recent article in Business Week, asks the question as to whether Fox News is serious about pursuing a Business News channel in light of the problems that CNBC has had. He concluded that, in spite of how choppy the environment, Fox's philosophy and its multi-media approach, would make it a likely success.

I agree with him on all points. The future of business news -- in fact all news -- is on the Internet. Increasingly, TV, radio, and newspapers will become supports to the Web, in my opinion. Furthermore, the case is even more obvious when it comes to reaching the business interested demographic, a group I call the accumulators. These people worship at the alter of time -- they want what they want, when they want it -- and that is why the web is so important. Fox's growing Web presence is accommodating that need.

Furthermore, I believe that most business owners have a Fox News view of the world and Rupert Murdoch will not only attract many of the CNBC audience, he will also bring on many more who have been disinterested in the current business news options.

One thing I have come to believe is that it isn't smart to hedge your bets against Murdoch. I think Fox Business News, or whatever they call it, will do very well.