T. Boone Pickens' Crystal Ball...Predicting Oil Prices

Something is up with oil prices and T. Boone Pickens was discussing this on the Fox Business Network with Liz Claman. It is interesting to me that this important subject has not gotten more exposure on business television networks since consumers and companies dependent on gasoline have been concerned by the upward trend. Fortunately, Fox chimed in with one of the industry's leading authorities.

Today, oil closed slightly down at $58 a barrel, but that is not the direction one can expect it to go in the future, according to Pickens. In fact, he believes it will go to "$70 before $50” and that oil will be at “$75 a barrel by the end of the year.”

Concerning the continued stressful situation in both the United States and around the world, Pickens had a great deal to say:

• Concerning the Middle East, Pickens stated that "If Saudi Arabia falls, you will have $200 to $300 overnight. It’s razor thin where you are. When half our oil comes from unfriendly countries, anything goes off track, that’s where you are.”


• On Believing the Obama Administration Will End US Dependence on Foreign Oil, the tycoon showed incredible optimism: “Absolutely...This administration is going to have renewables, no question about it. They are going to reduce dependency on foreign oil. I have had meetings with Speaker Pelosi, [Senate] Majority Leader Reid, and they understand the problem and will get it corrected.”

Other highlights of the Claman and Pickens discussion:

• Pickens expressed concern about the huge number of oil imports, stating "This is more than half the trade deficit [and] has far-reaching tentacles and influence over what goes on in this country, where it has not been exposed or even explained to anybody,"


• Regarding obtaining oil from countries that are potentially hostile (such as Venezuela, Nigeria, and nations in the Middle East): "This is absolutely insane, that this country is dependent on supplies as precarious as Nigeria for instance or Venezuela," said Pickens. "Look at Saudi Arabia: They produce 9 million barrels a day. What we import is greater than what Saudi Arabia produces."


• In sum, the long term predictions are very dire indeed, with Pickens noting "I promise you this is going to get tight, very, very quick," said Pickens. "You're going to be back to $75 oil by the end of the year -- and $200 per barrel within five years."

The 80-year-old oil baron turned alternative energy guru provided interesting insights on an issue that is crucial for consumers and business owners in their decision making. Fortunately, Fox Business Network provided this interview. However, I want to remind the reader that his commentary is colored by his significant investment on alternative fuels. His predictions almost certainly must come true for his investments to pay off accordingly.

In July 2008, Pickens announced his ambitious Pickens Plan which focuses on alternatives such as natural gas, wind, and solar energy. His multi-media efforts to get the US government behind these alternatives are predicted to cost $58 million. This doesn't include the considerable investment that is going to be necessary to create the economy of scale required to make the goal of energy independence possible.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. Eric Bolling of Fox News and Fox Business says that Price’s Blog “is very influential and moves the blogosphere.” Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

The Stanford Financial Group Web Begins to Spread

As someone who lives in Houston and monitors financial articles, I have been particularly interested in the Stanford Financial story. Today, the Fox Business Channel has taken the lead on providing information on this hot topic.

Today I read that "Laura Pendergest-Holt, Stanford Financial Group’s chief investment officer, is likely to be indicted on Tuesday on criminal charges" at FoxBusiness.com. The total scope of the indictment is unknown at the time of this writing, but the article points out that "At minimum, the indictment will be on a charge of obstruction of justice, though her legal team thinks there could be a number of other charges brought against her as well." Knowing the way the government has pursued these type of cases, we can expect more, maybe many more. It is through the leveraging of these charges that the government gets pleas and information on others involved.

Pendergest-Holt is joining the firm’s founder, Chairman and CEO Robert Allen Stanford in the brewing hot water. Stanford, and three of his companies, have been charged by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) of orchestrating an $8 billion fraud related to a Certificate of Deposit program. Although he has not yet been charged with any crime at this point, accusations are flying and it seems to be a question of "when" and not "if" he will be facing charges. The indictment of Pendergest-Hold cannot bode well for Stanford.

In fact, the focus on Pendergest-Holt first, could be a part of the government's efforts to make sure that the bigger penalties fall on Stanford. It is not at all unusual for the government to go after the underlings in criminal cases first in order to assure a conviction and to get a heavy sentence for the ring leader.

Pendergest-Holt is the youngest of the Stanford senior executives and, at 35, may seem to be an unlikely central character in this story, but her knowledge of the inner workings of the firm and the relationships that drive it, makes her a very connected personality in this drama and a potentially attractive target to the government indeed.

Historically, an $8 billion fraud case would be considered massive and virtually unheard of; but thanks to the era of Bernie Madoff and his $50 billion Ponzi scheme, the Stanford story has largely been under the radar screen. Fortunately, Fox Business is being serious in its due diligence. Fox's prowess is a story in itself. Increasingly the new cable business network is becoming the leading network and is putting its older competitors (CNBC and Bloomberg) on notice, on the importance of being first.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. Eric Bolling of Fox News and Fox Business says that Price’s Blog “is very influential and moves the blogosphere.” Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

Fox Business and the "Average Joe"

Media Bistro brought it's readers information about an interesting article in the Columbia Journalism Review by Liza Featherstone. The writer's focus was on the impact that the Fox Business Network was having and whether or not it had incorporated "Main Street" as well as "Wall Street."

From the article:

Liza Featherstone writes an in depth feature about Fox Business Network in this month's Columbia Journalism Review. Featherstone writes that, despite the fact that FBN "champions Main Street over Wall Street," the network is missing, "the actual perspective and experience of the average Joe."

Featherstone writes that FBN, "can be fun to watch," and describes examples of the unique way the channel has presented financial news. Still, "If FBN were to be intellectually honest in early 2008, some of that reporting would necessarily be less than upbeat," she writes. "We never even meet FBN's favorite protagonist: the consumer trying to make ends meet. We don't see the neighborhoods in Cleveland that have been devastated by the mortgage mess."

As FBN evolves on TV, its web counterpart has shot to success. Michael Learmonth writes on Silicon Alley Insider about Foxbusiness.com (1.01 million) surpassing CNBC.com (998,000) in unique viewers during January 2008 (CNNMoney.com beat both significantly, with 5.6 million). One caveat — all of Foxnews.com's business news traffic gets redirected to Foxbusiness.com.

The thesis of the article is simple: although Fox Business gives the viewer significantly more content on small and medium size businesses (versus pure Wall Street coverage), it is failing to address the needs of the "average joe." The consumer, home owner, or employee that are affect by businesses of all sizes. Here's the problem with that criticsm -- Fox never promised to reach that audience. It is, after all, a business channel.

What it set out to do is discuss the mega corporations and the average business on the street, and it has certainly made strides in that direction. I think that it has work to do in that front. Historically, small business is "boring", "parochial", or even "local." It doesn't have to be, but that is how it has been treated by the media. In the future, I believe all the networks will focus on small business (which is where the bulk of the job creation is in this country) and I expect Fox Business to be a leader in that drive.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Dow Breaks 13,000 Again -- in the Right Direction!

A few days ago I noted that the Stock Market broke 13,000 points, but in the wrong direction. The market is at it again, but this time it broke its way back up, all the way to 13,371.72. In fact, the last week was the best we have seen in months.

Still, with the amazing market volatility, I think Fox Business and CNBC should get Dramamine as a title sponsor of many of their programs. The wild roller coast ride called the Stock Market is enough to make anyone sick.

The recent stress in the stock market has been great news for the media. According to MediaBistro, the channels that specialize in reporting such are enjoying a surge in viewers (which is usually followed by advertising revenue). The market remains near an all time high, unemployment is incredibly low, and the economy as whole remains quite strong. Yet, you won't easily read, see, or hear such in the business media. Instead we will only by plagued by stories of sub-prime trauma and foreclosures. That's the news media we "enjoy" today.

Kevin Price is the Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and is publisher of the Houston Business Review. Request Kevin Price's report on the Business of Media by emailing info@HoustonBusinessShow.com.

Fox Business Network Gets Interesting Endorsement

Call it what you want, but I call it "interesting" at the very least. A TV personality of one network that is being directly challenged by another network usually finds "mums the word" about the new kid on the block or choose to even get a little ugly. One personality at CNBC has had select words for the leaders behind the new Fox Business Network, but not the kinds of words that most would have expected.

According to Media Bistro, former Disney CEO Michael Eisner ((and host of his own program on CNBC) had praise for the new network's founders:

Former Disney CEO and current show host on CNBC, Michael Eisner chimed in on the launch of FBN this morning. Speaking at the Dow Jones/Nielsen Media and Money conference in New York, Eisner was asked about FBN's chances: "It's not crazy if you have [Rupert] Murdoch and [Roger] Ailes. It's probably crazy if you have two other people, but those guys are pretty good. So you can't bet against them."

Many have underestimated the Fox Business Channel and its leadership at their own demise. On many occasions I have heard people describe Murdoch (and Ailes) as "crazy." Yes, crazy like a FOX (pun intended).

The video is of Charlie Rose and Michael Eisner. Kevin Price's Houston Business Review newsletter includes excellent articles on business finance, marketing, media, and more. Get your free subscription here.

Fox Business Comes To Houston Comcast

I don't write very often about local business issues, but I have to mention the latest happenings of Fox Business in Houston. I have Direct TV so I had it a couple of weeks before, but Comcast now has the Fox Business Channel in the Houston market and I assume it launched nationwide on the cable provider. It couldn't come a minute sooner.

All my friends have heard rumors about it; "isn't Fox Business coming soon?," "when is Murdoch's business channel going to be on?," and "I can't wait to see Fox Business." The resentment has been huge. "I already have it," I would say innocently to frowns and groans. Then I would add insult to injury by going into detail about how much I love it. I was relieved by the news it was added to Comcast and learned several things from the exchanges with friends:

* Comcast seems to have many customers. The vast majority of my friends have it. Yes, this is anecdotal, but it seems to ring true.

* Not every Comcast subscriber will necessarily benefit. According to Comcast, 600,000 homes in Houston will get Fox Business. But I think there are over 800,000 homes in Houston's entire interconnect. I'm concerned that everyone I know will fall in that unfortunate group that doesn't have the channel. We will wait and see.

* Murdoch knows how to create buzz. People have been talking about the network for almost a year, I have rarely seen so much interest in a new TV channel.

In Houston, Fox Business Channel is big news. If you are a Comcast subscriber, visit their site and find out whether the channel is now waiting for you.

Order Kevin Price's audio program The Accumulators, which explains the impact that the Internet is having on marketing and consumer behavior. It is available online here for only $10 plus p and h. Receive the Houston Business Review e-zine free each week by clicking here.

CNBC to Fox Business: We Are Ready

According to a recent Media Bistro ezine:

In today's Hollywood Reporter, NBCU's Jeff Zucker confidently reveals how CNBC will handle the arrival of Fox Business Network: "We're not going to make the same mistake CNN made when Fox News Channel came along a decade ago. We'll be strong and aggressive and continue to prove what makes CNBC by far the leading financial news broadcaster in the world."Zucker continues, "I think there is a degree of irony that the company that broke the story that Rupert Murdoch wanted to buy Dow Jones was CNBC."

Obviously Murdoch could have broke that same story and chose not to and this story reminds me of the saying that "pride comes before the fall." I don't think CNN fell over and played dead, but simply tried to down play the significance of the rival at their own peril. I believe Fox won the content war more than the personality battle (although I generally prefer Fox's people). I also think the quality of people that Fox brings will be better than what CNBC currently offers. We will have to wait and see.

With Fox's purchase of the Wall Street Journal, will the Dow Jones Industrial Average become the Fox Business Industrial Average? I'm dying to see a CNBC reporter say something like that.

Murdoch Finally Gets WSJ

It appears official. Sure, I'm sure there are documents to be filled and lawyers to be dealt with, but it appears that Rupert Mudoch's quest for the Wall Street Journal has finally been sucessful. Media Bistro reports:

Nearly three months after CNBC's David Faber broke the news that Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. was making an offer to buy the Dow Jones Company, Faber reports this morning that it's a done deal, and an "agreement is expected tonight."

Apparently, enough members of the family which controls 64% of the voting shares, have agreed to sell. A little more than 3 months from now, Murdoch launches his business news companion to the #1 cable news network, the Fox Business Channel.

Many analysts, and Murdoch himself, expect the Dow sale to be a game changer for FBC; bringing the heft of The Wall Street Journal to 24-hour TV. "We just want to have a business channel that lives up to the quality and traditions of The Wall Street Journal," Murdoch told FNC's Neil Cavuto on the day the offer was announced. "We think that we can do that and we will do very well."

One hurdle: The Wall Street Journal has a television deal with CNBC until 2012. On that issue Murdoch said, "we think there is plenty of room for us all to work together."

I wasn't sure Murdoch was going to pull it off for a while. After all, the Journal is an old publication with deep family roots. I bet their next family reunion will be very interesting. But I'm not surprised either. One thing I have learned is that it is foolish to under estimate Rupert Murdoch. He might be the single biggest media player in history.

CNBC enjoys a coveted relationship with the Wall Street Journal and, I'm sure, enjoy providing the Dow Jones Industrial Averages (DJIA) with pride. But the DJIA is just a name. What if Murdoch changes it to the Fox Business Industrial Averages? If that happens, 2012 couldn't come sooner for CNBC.

CBS Should Hire Stone Phillips...Fast

Stone Phillips was "let go" today from NBC following a fifteen year as co-anchor of the very popular "Dateline" program. I believe that CBS should hire him fast.

The 53 year old veteran broadcast journalist is smart (Yale graduate), very articulate, handsome, and projects himself very well. He has won numerous Emmys and Peabody Awards over the years and has a reputation of being extremely professional. I believe he would be an excellent replacement for Katie Couric, who will be likely to leave CBS in the near future, in my opinion.

He has the right look and style to attract the younger set that Katie was suppose to get, but he is a mature enough male not to chase off the primary audience of nightly news (males who are 60 years old or older).

He wasn't let go because of lack of talent, but because of Draconian efforts by the peacock network to keep costs down. He isn't being replaced by anyone. Instead his co-host, Ann Curry will do the whole show on her own. Ann is extremely popular on the highly rated "Today Show" so choosing someone who had to go was quite simple in this scenario.

I believe CBS should jump on this. They can acquire him at a very competitive rate because of the circumstances he is under. I believe they should get him pinch hitting for Katie and put him in right away as the permanent anchor of the weekend news broadcasts. Don't be surprised if this happens quickly. Don't be surprised if this happens sooner rather than later.

I believe if we don't find him at CBS we will see him at the new Fox Business Channel in a very prominent role. This will not be the last we see of Stone Phillips.

News Corp Pursues Dow Jones

Rupert Murdoch of News Corp is interested in the Dow Jones Company, but the feeling isn't mutual. The media maverick has announced the creation of the Fox Business Channel, which is expected to launch in the Fall, and is now focusing on the leading financial publication of the world -- the Wall Street Journal and the vast resources of the Dow Jones Company.

News Corp offered approximately $60 a share, which translates into a $5 billion offering in pursuit of majority ownership. This is a sizable profit for the historic leader in business news. However, if one is from a liberal or even moderate bent, Fox News is considered conservative or even radical. This doesn't appear to stand well with Dow Jones and they are rejecting the pursuits of Murdoch.

If News Corps efforts translates into success, this will disrupt the TV relationship Dow Jones has with CNBC and the new Fox Business Channel will take the role of distributing that information for the world of television. The question is, who will have a greater influence editorially, Dow Jones on Fox or Fox on Dow Jones? Most are guessing on the latter. Ironically, both media are considered conservative by and large, but for some reason Fox is described in terms such as "strident," "polarizing," and "divisive." In spite of this, Fox is also considered among the most influential and the purchase of Dow would only increase that prestige. I, personally would be glad to see that happen and it would only increase Fox's growing reach in the business arena.

Fox Prepares for the New Business Channel

It has been recently announced by Fox News that is was creating the new Fox Business Channel, which is scheduled for launch later this year. Fox News has already enjoyed the most popular block of business programming with its "Cost of Freedom" shows between 9 to 11 AM on Saturdays (Central Time), now it hopes to provide quality business content 24/7.

To me it makes perfect sense for Fox to move in this arena. Unlike its chief competitor in this genre, CNBC, Fox is making it perfectly clear that it intends to be overtly pro-business. This has been the case on the Fox News channel from the beginning, I would only expect it to continue on in its channel for business.

The signs of the preparation are obvious as the impressive slogans "The Most Powerful Name in News" and "Fair and Balanced" are being seen less, while "Fox Means Business" is seen more frequently. They seem to be getting ready for their big play.

My question, as Fox gets ready for the move, is what businesses are going to get attention? CNBC and Bloomberg are clearly about big business and investing. Not that these are not important, but the vast majority of businesses in this country are actually quite small. I think there is a theory that small businesses simply wing it and the owners are too busy to spend time consuming business news. I disagree and believe that with the rise of content on the web that mirrors TV and the explosion of mobile devices that makes such easily accessible, Fox would do well providing content that appeals specifically to the small business audience. In addition to potentially winning the war on the editorial front, Fox could also win by providing a genre of business information on cable that no one else is doing. Obviously it is imperative for Fox to lead in the big business and investment areas -- after all big business audiences attract big advertising dollars -- but it also makes sense to go where others in TV have demonstrated very little interest, but the huge numbers of potential audience clearly deserves attention.

Fox Business News Channel?

Jon Fine, in a recent article in Business Week, asks the question as to whether Fox News is serious about pursuing a Business News channel in light of the problems that CNBC has had. He concluded that, in spite of how choppy the environment, Fox's philosophy and its multi-media approach, would make it a likely success.

I agree with him on all points. The future of business news -- in fact all news -- is on the Internet. Increasingly, TV, radio, and newspapers will become supports to the Web, in my opinion. Furthermore, the case is even more obvious when it comes to reaching the business interested demographic, a group I call the accumulators. These people worship at the alter of time -- they want what they want, when they want it -- and that is why the web is so important. Fox's growing Web presence is accommodating that need.

Furthermore, I believe that most business owners have a Fox News view of the world and Rupert Murdoch will not only attract many of the CNBC audience, he will also bring on many more who have been disinterested in the current business news options.

One thing I have come to believe is that it isn't smart to hedge your bets against Murdoch. I think Fox Business News, or whatever they call it, will do very well.