Are We Now In A Recession?

You probably didnt ask for it, but it has been shoveled down our throats, we are being told that we are in a recession. I have said quite often in this blog, that I'm not buying it, and the economic statistics supports my optimism.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), we maintain a ridiculously low 4.9 percent unemployment. Economists call 4 percent zero unemployment (factoring in seasonal employees, those creating their own business but still cited as unemployed, illegal business activity, etc.). There has never been a recession with this low of unemployment.

On the same BLS page we find that productivity was up 6.3 in the last quarter we have such recorded. Again, not indicative of a recession. In fact it is a sign of a booming economy.

As I watch CNBC (which is all I have available in my TV studio) I am seeing these people celebrate a recession as the Dow hoovers around -300. One of the analysts is arguing that they need to declare the recession now so the market can determine what are the best stocks to invest in. It is dishonest (it takes six months of economic decline to have an actual recession), it probably lead to poor financial planning, but it leads to great TV ratings.

I admit, today may not be a good day to invest in the market if you are faint of heart -- although there are plenty of barging out there that are worth pursuing. But there are numerous places that you can successfully put money -- in Real Estate (especially in the investment side as people move to renting rather than owning), creating your own business, and other more tangible economic activities. But it is simply too early to call this an economy in decline.

In the above video from Movers and Shakers, you will see a different spin on the economy.

Kevin Price is Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Dow Breaks 13,000 Again -- in the Right Direction!

A few days ago I noted that the Stock Market broke 13,000 points, but in the wrong direction. The market is at it again, but this time it broke its way back up, all the way to 13,371.72. In fact, the last week was the best we have seen in months.

Still, with the amazing market volatility, I think Fox Business and CNBC should get Dramamine as a title sponsor of many of their programs. The wild roller coast ride called the Stock Market is enough to make anyone sick.

The recent stress in the stock market has been great news for the media. According to MediaBistro, the channels that specialize in reporting such are enjoying a surge in viewers (which is usually followed by advertising revenue). The market remains near an all time high, unemployment is incredibly low, and the economy as whole remains quite strong. Yet, you won't easily read, see, or hear such in the business media. Instead we will only by plagued by stories of sub-prime trauma and foreclosures. That's the news media we "enjoy" today.

Kevin Price is the Host of the Houston Business Show (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and is publisher of the Houston Business Review. Request Kevin Price's report on the Business of Media by emailing info@HoustonBusinessShow.com.