Surprising Predictions on the Off Year Elections
Well, it is that time again -- mid-term elections are up and many politicians will have to face the grade from the electorate. According to the political pundits, this should be a disastorous year for Republicans and the President. I believe, historically speaking, that this will be far milder than what is being predicted.
The reader needs to be aware that off year elections have been bad for Presidents for years. Dwight Eisenhower lost over 40 Republican Member of Congress in 1958. Bush is one of the only modern Presidents that has been able to maintain a Republican majority throughout his administration. Like him or not, this is a remarkable accomplishment.
I believe that Republicans are going to perform much better than expected. The magic number in the U.S. House is 15 seats, in the Senate, 5 in terms of what Democrats needed to win to get a majority. Three weeks ago I believed Republicans would likely lose the House and maybe the Senate as well. My view is changing due to several factors:
First of all, the unemployment situation remains extremely low. These kind of numbers (4.6 percent nation wide) are considered extremely low by any measure.
Second, the stock market is exploding. The "historic" 12,000 mark of a few weeks ago is slowly becoming the norm and there appears to be no end to the growth.
Third, home ownership is at its highest in US History.
Fourth, the "scandals" that were haunting Republicans seem to be chasing Democrats. There seems to be several "Mark Foley" like incidents in Congress and they appear to cross party lines. These could come out any day now. Meanwhile, the Minority Leader of the Senate (Harry Reid of NV) is battling back from accusations of unethical behavior in his disclosures. This means that neither party might do well when it comes to ethical questions. The Foley "October Surprise" was actually in September and may have given Republicans too much time to recover.
Finally, with the most violent month in the war in Iraq being used by Democrats as a case for a change of course, many Americans are interpreting this as a possible vote by our enemies for the Democrats. I don't believe Americans are going to give terrorists what they clearly desire.
So my prediction? The polling numbers are showing that seats that a few weeks ago were going Democrat are now up for grabs or going the other direction. I believe Republicans will win a small majority in both Houses. Keep an eye on this post, however, there might be a slight alteration in a few weeks.
The reader needs to be aware that off year elections have been bad for Presidents for years. Dwight Eisenhower lost over 40 Republican Member of Congress in 1958. Bush is one of the only modern Presidents that has been able to maintain a Republican majority throughout his administration. Like him or not, this is a remarkable accomplishment.
I believe that Republicans are going to perform much better than expected. The magic number in the U.S. House is 15 seats, in the Senate, 5 in terms of what Democrats needed to win to get a majority. Three weeks ago I believed Republicans would likely lose the House and maybe the Senate as well. My view is changing due to several factors:
First of all, the unemployment situation remains extremely low. These kind of numbers (4.6 percent nation wide) are considered extremely low by any measure.
Second, the stock market is exploding. The "historic" 12,000 mark of a few weeks ago is slowly becoming the norm and there appears to be no end to the growth.
Third, home ownership is at its highest in US History.
Fourth, the "scandals" that were haunting Republicans seem to be chasing Democrats. There seems to be several "Mark Foley" like incidents in Congress and they appear to cross party lines. These could come out any day now. Meanwhile, the Minority Leader of the Senate (Harry Reid of NV) is battling back from accusations of unethical behavior in his disclosures. This means that neither party might do well when it comes to ethical questions. The Foley "October Surprise" was actually in September and may have given Republicans too much time to recover.
Finally, with the most violent month in the war in Iraq being used by Democrats as a case for a change of course, many Americans are interpreting this as a possible vote by our enemies for the Democrats. I don't believe Americans are going to give terrorists what they clearly desire.
So my prediction? The polling numbers are showing that seats that a few weeks ago were going Democrat are now up for grabs or going the other direction. I believe Republicans will win a small majority in both Houses. Keep an eye on this post, however, there might be a slight alteration in a few weeks.
posted by Kevin Price at 7:39 PM
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