Monday, April 30, 2007

See How They Run: Observations on the 08 Race

The 2008 election dominates the news, but some of the biggest stories in that race (in my opinion) are quite neglected. There are some developing themes that which could play a major role in the election results.

* Social activists will be motivated. The partial-birth abortion decision by the Supreme Court is the first decision in years that put any restrictions on the practice. This proved the importance to both sides that elections for President matter, because they lead to the appointment of Justices. I believe this will be a major theme through out the campaign.

* How a moderate could win the Republican nod. Frankly, I am no fan of John McCain and have written on such in this blog. The most important fiscal policy issue is, in my opinion, to understand the importance of tax cuts in keeping an economy rolling. Tax cuts and the changing of the debate on that issue has made the Republican Party a majority party for much of the last 25 years. McCain doesn't get it, he isn't pro-life either, his views on campaign finance undermine the First Amendment, but his stock is still going up as a candidate in my opinion. The trump card of all issues for many Conservatives is the war and McCain and Giuliani get it more than most of the other Republican candidates. I never believed I could ever be interested in a candidate like McCain, but the war is that important. Winning the nomination doesn't mean they win the general election, but I thought it was impossible for a moderate to win that just a few months ago.

* How Hillary Clinton could win the nomination and loose the election. Hillary is extremely polarizing as a candidate and I can't recall any in recent history who is both most beloved and entirely disliked. Furthermore, who old style of campaigning -- acting like a Southerner in the South, a Yankee in the north, and a what ever where ever she is at -- is only irritating voters, and it is captured on the news every day. She acts like we live in the old days where candidates could largely say and do what they want without fear of being caught. In the YouTube world we live in today, good luck. She is by far the most organized, has the best access to money (in spite recent fundraising reports), and is the most experienced at handling the pressure. Because of this she could win the nomination. But her personality and controversial stances will haunt her in November of 2008.

These are a few of my thoughts on the campaign, I will discuss some more growing themes as the race progresses.

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