Congressional Budget Office has new Numbers

About two weeks ago the Obama Administration was blushing as it boasted about the "favorable" numbers its administration received from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The fact that the CBO is appointed by members of the President's own party (the majority in Congress are Democrats) made some skeptical. However, the experts outside of the CBO and the White House looked at the numbers and said, "wait a minute!" The numbers are scary and the budget is pointing at a direction that will make the US appear to be little more than a typical debtor nation. This is not something "down the road," but just a few years away.

Now, the Congressional Budget Office itself is releasing new numbers that make it appear it has had its own rude awakening. The Hill is reporting "The federal government would record total deficits of 9.8 trillion between 2011 and 2020 under President Obama's fiscal 2011 budget, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office. The deficit would be $1.5 trillion in 2010 and and would decline to 8.9 percent of gross domestic product or $1.3 trillion in 2011, $346 billion more than the deficit that CBO projects in its March 5 baseline, based on current policies and laws not changing." Ironically, the Administration made the case for health care reform on the March 5th numbers. The "mistake" could not have been at a better time for Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid, and I'm sure the corrections will be used to make the case for more tax increases. "Isn't that convenient."

The article also goes on to point out that "under the president's budget debt held by the public would grow from $7.5 trillion or 53 percent of GDP at the end of 2009 to $20.3 trillion, or 90 percent of GDP, at the end of 2020, about $5 trillion more than under the assumptions underlying the baseline." These numbers have horror picture written all over them and show huge weaknesses in the fundamentals of our economy in the very near future.

The timing of the initial release of numbers on March 5th helped Obama get his socialized medicine program passed. I doubt he would have promoted these new numbers a few weeks ago. Questions of politics will certainly come up and should. Did Pelosi and Reid put undue influence on the CBO? Was the mistake a mere accident or perfectly times to help the Obama agenda? I am waiting for Republican members of Congress to raise those questions.

I have always worked to articulate what is going on in politics and the economy in the context of "results" rather than "intentions." Those who focus on the latter are dismissed as conspiracy theorists and nut jobs. Furthermore, they typically have no credibility in the eyes of the media or even the general public. However, with stating that, I have never seen an administration raise suspicions about politics, agendas, and deceit than that of Barack Obama.

Kevin Price is a syndicated columnist whose articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media. Kevin Price is also host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650). Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Making 2010 a great year for America

So we are starting a new year. All of us have our personal aspirations. Some are seeking a new job, others want new business opportunities, others still want to make major purchases for their home or companies. Than there are those who simply want good things for themselves and those they love. I also think that people, more than we have seen in years, have hopes and dreams for this country. That is certainly the case with me. Below are some of my personal desires for the country this year. It is a really small list in light of how great our national need, but it would be an excellent beginning.

• That members of Congress would get a healthy sense of fear starting right now. The Democrats seem like people in a trance, with no sense of reality or consequence. Their agenda seems more important to them than their careers and, certainly, their constituents. Meanwhile, the Republicans blindly see the conservative revolt as its movement, when many of these angry voters would be likely to vote for a candidate under the "Tea Party" banner than the GOP. The Democrats need to come to their senses and weigh the damage they are doing to both the country and themselves. Meanwhile, the Republican party should be made up of people in repentance because they have been a part of the problem and not the solution.
• That there is a major shift in the US House and Senate races to candidates who support liberty. This does not seem likely in the US Senate because of the number of states that lean towards smaller government being up for reelection and are more vulnerable. However, I expect the US House to actually have a new Speaker. It is my hope that leader is not just another Republican.
• That more Americans hold their elected officials accountable. There is an old adage that seems to be true that "people hate Congress, but love their elected member of Congress." For the vast majority of people their members of Congress are the problem. If your member of Congress is not honoring his or her oath of office to defend the Constitution, make that person have to look for other employment.
• That the states demand for the restoration of its rights. We are seeing more states argue against the national government's rapid and unconstitutional expansion. Thirteen state Attorneys General, led by South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster, have recently notified US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and informed them that the Obamacare proposal is unconstitutional and that they intend to fight it every step of the way. Specifically, they warned in the letter to the congressional leaders that legal action may result if they do not remove the unconstitutional "Cornhusker Kickback" Medicaid provision inserted into the senate health care bill to secure the vote of Nebraska US Senator Ben Nelson.
• That provision allows Nebraska to have the benefits of the socialized health care program without paying for it. We have also had governors cite Article I, Section 8 and the Tenth Amendment of the Constitution to remind the federal government of its proper role. In addition to states fighting back, I would love them to win these battles in the courts.
• That America's international prestige would be restored and our troops would be protected. As Obama tried to figure out the US strategy in Afghanistan, we saw our troop casualties double last year. This President is far more dangerous to our friends and our armies than to its obvious enemies. I hope that does not remain the case in 2010.
  

This is a short list, but imagine if we could accomplish these few things alone? 2010 could be remembered as a very good year. One that set the groundwork for the restoration of this great Republic.

Kevin Price is a syndicated columnist whose articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media. Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

Opposition to Obamacare Should be Unconditional

Recently I received a request from a very well intended and concerned individual about the health care debate. She wanted me to promote a provision that would have a "whistle blower" provision as a part of the socialized health care bill. It is a great measure that those who want to protect our health care system should support, but avoid like the plague at this time. Meanwhile it is the type of provision that Obama, Reid, and Pelosi hates and they hope and pray that conservatives pursue such with a passion. The reason for this is simple -- it legitimizes the role of the federal government in the health care debate. Once we concede to this type of discussion, there is no longer a question as to whether there will be a socialized health care program, but what it will look like.

I hear people say, "government spending needs to be lower before we pursue such an ambitious program," or "the number one priority is unemployment and until it is below a certain level, we should not be even discussing health care," or other conditions that some deem necessary before we begin a health care debate. Our view must be different. Our opposition to this health care proposal should be unconditional. There should be nothing the federal government can do to make it worthy of consideration. The reasons for this are numerous, here are just a few:

• Socialized medicine destroys innovation and will throw our health care into a new Dark Ages.


• The federal system our republic is built on intended for issues like this to be addressed exclusively by the states and not the federal government. To date states like California, Oregon, Massachusetts, and Hawaii have attempted such programs and they have all been complete failures. Hawaii's socialized health care program almost put the entire state into bankruptcy and had to be discontinued in seven months.


• Socialized medicine has not worked in other countries and, where applied, is noted for rationing and shortages. The average wait time to see a specialist in Canada after a general physician has noted a health care issue requiring further attention is 17 weeks (approximately four months). This is more than enough time to turn an early detected cancer into one that is inoperable. According to the National Center for Policy Analysis, women with breast cancer have a 14 percent higher survival rate in the United States than in Europe. Breast cancer mortality is 52 percent higher in Germany than in the United States, and 88 percent higher in the United Kingdom. Breast cancer mortality is also 9 percent higher in Canada than in the US. Less than 25 percent of US women die from breast cancer. In Great Britain, it's 46 percent; France, 35 percent; Germany, 31 percent; Canada, 28 percent; Australia, 28 percent, and New Zealand, 46 percent.


• Finally, and most important in my opinion, socialized health care is unconstitutional. Our constitution limits the federal government to 17 specific powers and none of them include health care. The argument that the government is already doing many things beyond the mandate of the Constitution does not justify further expansion. The line must be drawn some where. This is the time and this is the place.

If those who oppose socialize medicine engage in the debate by discussing provisions "necessary" to make it "work," the battle is over and we lose. We must stand opposed to socialized health care and do so without exceptions.

Kevin Price is a syndicated columnist whose articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media. Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at PriceofBusiness.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

When Obama's Legislative Agenda Becomes Reality

Fast forward to November 2010 when Members of Congress face mid term elections. From what I can tell, it will make 1994 look like a cake walk for Democrats. That is saying quite a bit, considering the Democrats held a 56 percent majority in the Senate that was changed to a 55 percent Republican majority. In the US House it went from 258 Democrats to 204 and 176 Republicans to 231. It was the first time in decades that the Republicans held both Houses of Congress. It was a slaughter for the Democrats and many consider it a referendum on Bill Clinton's first two years and a reaction to corruption among Democrats in the US Congress (of particular concern was the large number in that party that wrote bad checks at the House bank that were covered by tax payer dollars).

In 2010 we have millions of Americans up in arms over bailouts to major businesses and an ambitions President with a political agenda that has under gone very little vetting. We have seen arrogance and elitism from Obama like we have witnessed from no other president and he has, ironically gone around the world apologizing for the "arrogance" of the American people. He has given us our first double digit employment in over a quarter of a century (in real numbers) and has spent more in the first hundred days of his administration than Ronald Reagan did in two terms. The President and those who support him are very vulnerable.


This is becoming all the more clear by simply looking at the man who sets the policy agenda in the US Senate. Harry Reid (D-NV) is fighting for his political life in his reelection for 2010 and often finds himself saying "no" to a second stimulus and is delaying the vote on Obama's health care agenda. This is not due to the economic consequences of these bills, but because of the political consequences as he faces a very difficult election in just over a year.


So with things looking so bad, when will the Obama agenda become law? Well, I don't have a crystal ball, but I feel very confident that I can narrow it down to around 90 days. I don't think Republicans will win a majority in the US Senate (because of the seats that are up for reelection this cycle), but I believe it will be a complete wipe out in the House. Ironically, it will be after this defeat of the Democrats that huge portions of Obama's most controversial bills will become law. The reason for this is simple, after the elections of November of 2010 and before the new Congress that is seated in 2011, both Houses will aggressively pursue Obama's agenda as a going away present to the American voters that threw them out. Cynical? Maybe, but I worked for the Senate and have been observing their behaviors for over two decades. This is more than a hunch, but something you can take to the bank.


Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. His articles often appear in Chicago Sun Times, Reuters, USA Today, and other national media. Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

Does Obama want Harry Reid Out?

For years, conservatives have called on Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) to resign as Senate Majority leader. This was due to his statement in 2007 that the war in Iraq was effectively "lost." He was wrong then both in principle and reality, but members of his own party embraced him warmly as they all collectively denounced our troop in ability and worked to undermine their morale. The warmth he shared among Congressional Democrats may now be lost since he has become the single most powerful obstruction to Barack Obama's agenda. Republican rants, tea party tirades, and conservative condemnations cannot compare to one man who sets the policy agenda in the US Senate. Reid, who is fighting for his political life in his reelection for 2010 is saying "no" to a second stimulus and is delaying the vote on Obama's health care agenda. This is not due to the economic consequences of these bills, but because of the political consequences as he faces a very difficult election in just over a year. The truth is, Nevada is not nearly as liberal as Harry Reid. In fact, he replaced one of the most conservative members of the Senate, Paul Laxalt, who was arguably Ronald Reagan's best friend and ally in the Legislative Branch.

Things are getting ugly on the left, many small, liberal bloggers have declared he needed to go. Now, the situation is worsening for Reid, as The DailyKos says "Harry Reid...for the good of Country...Please Resign!

The writing is written on the polls for Reid as well. The Las Vegas Sun reports "he still has some of the worst polling numbers in the country for a senatorial incumbent — a Mason-Dixon poll last month found that only 34 percent of the electorate had warm and fuzzy feelings about him, and 46 percent did not think too highly of him. Those are fatal numbers for most elected officials, especially one who has been around for four decades, which surely has caused a contagion of Reid fatigue." It goes on to point out that, in spite no "name brand" GOP candidates seems to be looking seriously at Reid's seat, "There are plenty of folks talking about and even campaigning for Reid’s seat on the GOP side. And even a no-name has a chance against someone whose approval numbers are upside down. Ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle may draw tittering from the political cognoscenti, but she is relentless, and with some outside funding, she almost cost Heller that congressional seat two cycles ago. And there will be plenty of outside funding this cycle as the national Republicans have Reid as their No. 1 target — and, I’d guess, their Nos. 2 through 10, too." Finally, it notes that "Except the national atmospherics could make somebodies out of nobodies pretty quickly if the economy does not improve, if health care reform implodes, if President Barack Obama’s numbers turn Reid-like. As the most powerful Democrat in the legislative branch, he would not just have to carry the national negatives if they exist; he would be the symbol of them — at thousands of gross rating points a week next summer."

Because of these realities, Reid will play it safe between now and November of 2010, making himself the single biggest obstruction to President Obama. Here are just a couple scenarios bouncing around.

If Reid resigns as Majority Leader, he can free up the Party to be as liberal as it wants and he can vote with the "conscious of a conservative" up to the end of next year. Problem is, much of the money he brings to his reelection is because he is Majority Leader. Furthermore, it is how he makes his case for reelection. "As Senate Majority Leader I have enormous influence on how states, like Nevada, benefit from Washington's policies." Difficult to make that case if you are no longer leader.

On the other hand, he doesn't resign and the Obama agenda goes down like the Titanic (an ever growing possibility), I could see the President and his minions pour money in to get a Primary opponent funded that will force Reid to resign to spend time on his reelection efforts.
Either way, Reid is in one ugly position.

Rumor has it, pressure is already being applied on Reid to resign within the government, in spite Congressional leaders defending him. I believe it will soon be revealed that Obama himself is applying that pressure. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. His articles often appear in Chicago Sun Times, Reuters, USA Today, and other national media. Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

Why Time is not on the Side of Obama's Policy Agenda

All of a sudden it appears that the clock is ticking against Obama. Although the President has long promoted his legislative agenda at record (if not reckless) speed, there seems to be an alarm when he talks and a frequency that people are increasingly describing as "neediness." He may now be "over selling" his agenda and people are beginning to believe that his policies need more vetting before they become law. That is a sentiment that has been conveyed to Congress.

The most costly government "investment" in the form of bailouts that equaled budgets covering many years was passed with the promise that, if it didn't, unemployment would jump to 8.5% by this time. Upon its passage, unemployment is pushing 10% and the voting public is beginning to have buyers remorse when it comes to government solutions.

A central part of Obama's approach to policy was to attack many issues at the same time with the hope that some of them get passed. As a result, many pieces of legislation has flown through Congress without even being read by the member that voted for it. This has lead to Congress hitting the brakes.

As a result, time is not on the side of President Obama for many reasons:

• While the President doesn't have to face reelection until 2012, many in his own party are facing tough fights in 2010. For them, their political future is measured in months, not years.


• Particularly vulnerable in 2010 is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) who is facing the most difficult race he has had in years. He is single handily derailing Obama's health care reform efforts in order to make sure he has a seat in the next Senate. Furthermore, he was quick to dismiss the need of another stimulus package citing the imperative to prove the others have worked. While some Members of Congress are crying that it should not go on vacation until health care reformed is passed, Reid disagrees and plans on taking the scheduled break.


• We have the highest unemployment we have seen in decades and as every point goes up, the popularity of the President goes down. Projecting the effects of the current policies, many are assuming the unemployment rate will be close to 20 percent by the end of the year and then that should sound the end of any political capital necessary for Obama to achieve serious "reforms" in this Congress.
  

There is a saying that, "when your neighbor loses a job it is called a recession and when you lose a job it is a depression." For most Americans, jobs are where the "rubber meets the road." Unless Obama enjoys a miracle in the job creation department, his agenda is in serious jeopardy.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. His articles often appear in Chicago Sun Times, Reuters, USA Today, and other national media. Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

Mr. Franken Gets Lost in Washington

I found it more than funny seeing Sen. Harry Reid guide newly elected Senator Al Franken to the podium to discuss his priorities as he takes his office. Franken, with that Saturday Night Live smile and "gee golly" expression, was memorable. One of his opponents will use this when, or if, Franken runs for reelection.

Franken has completely out done himself by becoming the US Senator from Minnesota. In spite of the fact that many are crying that he has stolen his way into this elite club, Franken is in and Washington will be watching closely.

I worked in DC for many years, first as an aide to US Senator Gordon Humphrey (R-NH) and later with several think tanks and political organizations. I also was a friend with members of the US House. Members in that "lower chamber" are noted for their rough and tumble antics, propensity towards individuality, and constant fight to be recognized. The US Senate is the exact opposite. That organization is very much like a prestigious club, designed for the "best and the brightest" from each state. Compared to the US Senate, the House of Representatives is like Animal House.

Animal House, the famous movie developed by many of the people behind Saturday Night Live, would likely be a great place for Franken, since that program made him famous. He could even pull gags on his colleagues and be voted most popular, at least on the Democrat side of the aisle. This is not the case with the US Senate. You could see the look of anxiety on Harry Reid's face as they walked up to the microphone. The Majority Leader appeared to be holding his breath. There is this simple belief that, with many states literally electing dozens to US House seats based on their population, there is something special about the US Senate. Al Franken challenges that conventional wisdom.

Besides having among the most extreme views in the Senate (he may proved to be to the left of socialist Bernie Sanders), he has some of the most unusual behavior. He speaks his mind when and how he wants, regardless of how inappropriate it may be. It will be fascinating to see what kind of committees he ends up being on. A few likely possibilities are Veterans Affairs, Small Business and Entrepreneurship, Indian Affairs, and the Joint Committee on the Library. They are going to try to put him in a place to minimize his air time and minimize the damage, he would likely place on his Democratic colleagues. On the other hand, it is the Democrats, so he could end up in the most important Committee assignments. We will have to see. Franken isn't leaving entertainment, he is just laying the groundwork for his next movie, "Mr. Franken Gets Lost in Washington."

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business, the longest running show on AM 650 (M-F at 11 am) in Houston, Texas and on AOL Radio. His articles often appear in Chicago Sun Times, Reuters, USA Today, and other national media. Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal calls Price the “best business talk show host in the country.” Find out why and visit his blog at www.BizPlusBlog.com and his show site at www.PriceofBusiness.com. You can also find Price on Strategy Room at FoxNews.com.

The Senate Bailout Plan: "That's Not All..."

The bailout bill the US Senate passed reminded me of one of those late night infomercials. You know the ones where the company isn't convinced that you are going to buy something so they throw in "that's not all, oh no, that's not all." You see a very similar approach to selling this bailout in the final legislation passed by the Senate.

The original proposal that came from Treasury Secretary Paulson and President Bush was a mere two pages long. The US House got its hands on it and it became a little more than 100 pages long. There is no reason to worry, however, because Harry Reid (D-NV) has announced that the Senate has made it better by bringing it up to 451 pages and by adding over $100 billion to the final bill. If more is better, we certainly got that from this bill that passed by a very wide margin.

Fiscally Conservative Republicans put the breaks on the bailout bill that came to the US House because they thought it was too wasteful and transferred to much power to the federal government. So adding more pork and power to the government will make it more likely to pass? We will have to see.

So what will you find in this multi-layered package:

- Tax Breaks for Wooden Arrows designed for use by children (Sec. 503)

- Tax Breaks for Film and Television Productions (Sec. 502)

- 6 page package of earmarks for litigants in the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident, Alaska (Sec. 504)
- Tax earmark “extenders” in the bailout bill.- Virgin Island and Puerto Rican Rum (Section 308)

- American Samoa (Sec. 309)

- Mine Rescue Teams (Sec. 310)

- Mine Safety Equipment (Sec. 311)

- Domestic Production Activities in Puerto Rico (Sec. 312)

- Indian Tribes (Sec. 314, 315)

- Railroads (Sec. 316)

- Auto Racing Tracks (317)

- District of Columbia (Sec. 322)

- Wool Research (Sec. 325)

Who knew that Indians were about to go bankrupt? Considering they have their growing gaming interests, I thought we might be able to borrow money from them. The above are just a few of the examples that were added. I encourage you to read the bill in its entirety, if you have a few days to spare. I think it would make sense also to find out how your Senator voted on this bill.

In the end, however, I see this bill passing in the US House. There are specific tax breaks for small to medium size businesses to help encourage their recovery, tax relief for those hit by the recent natural disasters (hurricanes in the South and tornadoes in the Midwest), and there is an increase in the requirements on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (up to $250,000 from $100,000), putting more responsibilities on the banks.

In spite of such assurances, I have to question whether the trade offs of our freedoms and the potential socializing of our financial systems is worth the short term "stabilization."

Kevin Price articles frequently appear at ChicagoSunTimes.com, Reuters.com, USAToday.com, and other national media.

Kevin Price is Host of the Price of Business (M-F at 11 AM on CNN 650) and Publisher of the Houston Business Review. Hear the show live and online at HoustonBusinessShow.com. Visit the archive of past shows here.

See How They Run: The Republican Quest for a Quality Candidate

My first vote in a general election was for Ronald Reagan in 1980 at the ripe young age of 18. Since then I have voted in virtually every primary and general election for which I have had the opportunity. This current Republican lot for President is the east impressive I have seen over the last 27 years and it is also the largest group. This crowd is a mess.

The sheer number of minor league candidates and the weaknesses of the heir apparent (who people would think would be John McCain) almost makes me wonder if the Republican party is in shambles or if they are letting Democrats win in '08 so they can thoroughly mess things up and restore Republican rule for years to come (a possibility in light of how disastrous the Democrat front runners are).

Democrat rule of Congress should empower Republicans and make them optimistic about our prospects. The Majority Leader (Harry Reid) is voting to fund the war and putting our troops at risk and at the same time declaring that we lost and it is over. The Speaker of the House (Nancy Pelosi) appears to be breaking the law by representing the US in meetings with tyrants that our State Department has requested she not have communications. The Democrats have failed to govern and has held our legislative process hostage through the pursuit of witch hunts rather than policy changes. Left to their own, the Democrats are in serious trouble.

But the Republicans must offer an alternative and I don't see it in this group. I, personally, am hoping that former Senator Fred Thompson (photo) jumps in this race. He is a solid conservative from the South (crucial in winning Presidential elections), he has wide spread name identification, he isn't "needy" when it comes to the job, and his Hollywood credentials makes it difficult for him to be painted as outside of the mainstream (because he is on the Right). He is spending virtually nothing and is pulling higher numbers than many of the major candidates in the race.

If not Thompson, someone in the current group needs to rise to the top and needs to reflect the best that the Republican Party can offer.