Is the Economy in Danger or Was Yesterday a Mere Speed Bump?

The Headlines are fairly ominous today at CNN Money. We read about a "Wound Licking Wednesday" because the stock market dropped by over 400 points. Just below that article we see that "Economic Growth Not So Strong," with the actual increase being only 2.2 percent instead of the initial estimates of 3.5 for the fourth quarter of last year. The problems are not merely domestic, with the headline "Asia Stocks Tumble -- Except China" (this news is considered a major factor in our stock market decline yesterday). In fact, the news is so bad today, I suggest you avoid any sharp objects while reviewing it.

Seriously though, there is probably some legitimate cause of concern, but I believe that the economy is still on track towards a positive trajectory for this year. I say this for a few reasons:

* The power of divided government. There is an old saying, when the legislature is in session, no one's wallet is safe. Thanks to the fact that the President is of one party and the majority of the Congress is in the other, the chance of much being done legislatively is very slim in deed. This is a good thing in the eyes of business.

* Unemployment remains at historic lows. Zero unemployment is considered by most economists to be around 4 percent (because of people who are seasonally employed, are in illegal activities, are actually creating a business, etc.). Our unemployment is a mere 4.5 percent, thus near zero. This means the housing bust is probably going to actually be a mere burp (since high unemployment is a typical prerequisite to a housing bust) and should find itself having a strong year over all.

* The long term and consistent growth for so many quarters. This too is historic (even with the small increase from the last quarter) and there is nothing in the fundamentals of the economy to make one think it should change any time soon.

However, if the economy does go south, there are several potential contributing factors. If Congress passes its massive increase in the minimum wage and the President signs off on it, the economy will certainly suffer. Also, if the President signs on to a Democrat tax increase, we could find ourselves in serious trouble. In fact, the Congress failing to keep the current tax cuts in effect (a requirement in the bill that was passed with the tax cuts) will equal a tax increase in the eyes of many.

In the end, though, I expect 2007 to be extremely strong on the economic front, even if it is a little soft compared to last year. I have such optimism, not so much because of the ability of government to prevent a slump, but because of the entrepreneurs that has kept this economy growing. Let's face it, the economy typically thrives in spite of government, not because of it.

The Bright Future Through the Eyes of Wired

Any reader of this blog knows my thoughts about Wired Magazine. It offers very optimistic insights into the future and helps readers to best prepare for that future than any magazine on the market today, in my opinion. It isn't always done through powerful and persuasive articles (although there are plenty of them), but even through a simple picture like the one in this post. I apologize for the size, but you need it large in order to truly appreciate it.

If you look closely you will find:

Patient: Maggie Bond
Tumor Ex 30MG
Tablet
Take one tablet by mouth 3X daily for treatment of lung cancer. Tumor should disappear by day 20.

It goes on to mention quantities, the doctor, refills, etc. The date? 1/18/14. Right around the corner. Although this is fiction, I believe that the dramatic changes going on in medicine today supports such optimism.

Everything we read and hear shows that cancer is on decline, even as people are living longer than ever and we have our largest population in history. Furthermore, the treatments are becoming less invasive and with more dramatic results.

Sure, at this point, this is wishful thinking. But it is the type of optimism grounded in fact. This epitomizes the style of Wired Magazine. That is why it is one of the only magazines I literally wait for with great anticipation. This feature is called "Artifacts from the Future", which is a reoccurring theme in the publication. This picture speaks a thousand very optimistic words and offers hope and excitement about the future. That is also what Wired Magazine does for its readers each month. At $10 a year for 12 issues, it is a very wise investment.

Do Blogs Hurt Journalism?

I'm not much of a fan of the editorial bent of PBS, but I do love how thorough it is in its coverage. Tonight I saw a documentary on its program Frontline, where it discussed the impact that the Internet was having on journalism (it is significant and the network actually did a fine job demonstrating such). Over all, the future is very dim for paper and ink of newspapers in particular, according to the first episode in a series.

You would think that liberals would be thrilled because of all the ink that won't go into polluting the environment and all the trees that would be spared. Furthermore, since the blog is the new force that seems to be replacing traditional media (according to the program) and it is dominated by liberals, you would think PBS would be dancing in the streets! PBS seems to have a very different view.

Frontline argues that the only serious journalism is in traditional media and in newspapers in particular. For years the front page of the New York Times has provided the lead stories of the nightly news programs at CBS, NBC, and ABC. If newspapers keep getting smaller and editorial staffs keep getting leaner, who will write the truly "serious" stories?

Yet, the program pointed out that some of the most serious stories of the last year became that way because of blogs. In particular they mentioned the incredible story of former Rep. Mark Foley and his potential inappropriate relationships with young pages that many believe contributed to the huge problems Republicans faced in last November elections. There is also the story that CBS News' anchor Dan Rather had a deceptive and politically motivated source on his broadcast about the military service record of President George Bush that was driven by a blog. That story was so damaging that the veteran newsman was forced to resign after four decades at the network. These stories were powered largely by "unprofessional" bloggers and not the major media.

I'm not convinced that traditional journalism is any where close to dying at the hands of blogs. However, if they do die, I am actually very optimistic about the ability of the bloggers to find the stories that were covered by traditional journalism. Real people who live where the stories happen, not typical academicians who are often politically motivated and unschooled in the real world. Sure, the vast majority of the bloggers are ideologues. But at least their readers know it since I have seen very few who hide behind the mask of a so-called "objective media standards."

As a strong believer in the free market, I'm not at all surprised by the decline of the press at the hands of the Web. Newspapers had been taking a beating for years with the rise of Conservative talk radio in the 1980s. Before most had ever even heard of the "World Wide Web" newspapers were being sold and merged, left and right. When I was growing up it was common for their to be a morning and evening edition every day. We haven't seen those for years. The market provides what the people want. And, although disheartening to the liberals out there who really believe they know what is "best" for us, I believe that the market will also provide what we need. A largely unpaid and volunteer army of journalists that is committed to the truth as they see it; yet honest enough to admit when it is merely their opinion. If "professional" journalists had done that, they may not be on the brink of extinction today.

When It Comes to '08, Conservatives are in Big Trouble

When I was in college I was involved with an organization called Young Conservatives of Texas. It was, and appears to remain, an excellent organization for young people to think seriously about politics and to affect change based on that worldview. I'm one of the old timers, recruited by the founder, Steve Munisteri, himself. Recently there was a reception in Houston, Texas for the alumni of the organization.

I attended the event with the hope of hearing some encouragement about the upcoming election. What I got was a great deal of disappointment as virtually every member told me, flatly, they had no idea who they were going to support. I joined YCT back in 1980. As you can imagine, the choice was easy and every member I knew proudly and tirelessly supported Ronald Reagan. What makes me nervous is that Young Liberals (if such a group exists) appears to be in uniform agreement behind Barack Obama (with rare exception). When I was with YCT we weren't always correct, but we were certainly always RIGHT (sorry, I just had to say that and yes, we were correct about Reagan). And the enthusiasm for Reagan wasn't like anything I had seen, until the recent rise of Obama.

It is still early in this election cycle and victory is anything but sure for the Democrats. But Conservatives better get a clue or they could easily find themselves with a moderate nominee that will lack the grass roots appeal that is necessary for winning a Presidential election. After all, I'm sure we all remember Bob Dole.

Run Gore Run

I am formally announcing my endorsement for Al Gore to run for President. As a Democrat, of course. Which means I will never vote for him, but he could do an excellent job of further dividing the Democrats for the '08 elections.

Since becoming something of a rock star and actually winning an Academy Award for best documentary (for his apocalyptic assessment of the environment called An Inconvenient Truth), many on the Left are hoping he might jump into the race. All of the Hollywood money that Barack Obama was receiving will quickly shift to "one of their own", in my opinion. (By the way, Gore has his own inconvenient truth, since the media is reporting that his own home consumes ten times the energy of the average house in the US. Can you spell hypocrite?).

Now we are being "tempted" by the idea on AOL, as they ask visitors whether or not Gore should run. Interestingly, he won overwhelmingly in the poll against Obama, John Edwards, and even Hillary, both in the Democratic nomination and the general election (at least compared to the other mentioned Democrats in the survey). I hope Al Gore drinks from this Kool Aid and jumps in, but I doubt the poll is accurate. I know many people, like myself, voted in the survey and was favorable to Gore on every question. Why? Because the other candidates are already in and the more competition the Democrats have, the better it is for Republicans. At least that's the theory.

I want to encourage you to go vote for Gore too at the AOL poll. Let's give the Democrats some of the chaos Republicans have recently suffered from.

The Balancing Act of Blogging

I was very slow to get on the blog bandwagon. It isn't because I don't have a lot to say (I'm full of opinions), but that I have such a limited time. Of course, many of the millions who have a blog could say the same thing, and there is no question in my mind that the blog is going to remain a powerful force in media. I decided I simply had to jump in.

Early on I did very little. I think I was averaging around one a week and was very proud of myself for doing that much. Now I average around four a week and feel guilty when I miss more than a few days. The big concern facing every blogger is, what do I write about? How do I keep up the pace at a rate that readers desire? When I made the decision to take this seriously, I stewed on that concern for quite a while.

Now it seems I come up with something, even when I don't feel particularly inspired. There's always a crazy news story, self consumed politician, or great new idea that gives me fodder for writing. Still, I have these periods, like last week, where it felt like I could write in my blog every day. In fact, I felt like I could write posts several times a day during that time. After a couple of days of this I kept thinking in the back of my mind, "I'm going to run out of material," or "I'm using up several weeks on this week alone." But then I will counter, "that's silly, be inspired, write more."

Well after a week of what felt like hyper-blogging, this week has been a little slow. But what I have found over time is that blogging is a discipline, like anything else, and writing posts leads to the writing of more posts. Why did I write this post? Well I said it was a slow week. But I also hope that this proves to be helpful for others who have slow weeks of blogging too.

If We Don't Learn Anything Else From Anna Nicole Smith...

Immediately after I finished my radio show (the Houston Business Show, Monday at 1 PM on CNN 650), I realized that I hadn't heard any news on Anna Nicole Smith. There really shouldn't be much more to be said about the poor girl since she has now been dead a couple of weeks, but big news she is and doesn't appear to be leaving the media radar screen any time soon.

The poor woman couldn't seem to live her life with much dignity and her death seems to be even more embarrassing. What is center piece in all of these legal disputes and battles is knowing what she wanted if she died. She seriously failed to provide much information in the most common means people use to do so, which is a will. It appears she had one, but it was very old and out of date. It no longer reflected her current situation (leaving everything to a son who passed away) and created more questions than answers.

As a result, Anna's body remains on ice as they determine her future. An unlimited number of court cases are involved and if there is an estate left, her baby (and the people who "win" her) may find themselves without a penny because of it being consumed in probate.

So, in the end, it is difficult to ascertain much value in terms of wisdom from the life of Anna Nicole Smith, in my opinion. Instead of learning from examples of what she did do, we have to garner some opposite information in what she didn't do. Her failure to keep an up to date will should teach us all the importance to keeping ours current.

A will prevents families speculating what you really wanted, how you wanted your resources spent, what future plans you have for your children, and what you desired for your company. A will has people working in unison to fulfill your life dreams and remaining a family after you pass away. A will keeps more of your resources with your family and not liberally given to the government in taxes and legal disputes.

On today's show I interviewed Shahara Wright of the Wright Law Firm, who is our Business Show Advisor on Business Law. She discussed the importance of a will, how easy it is to express your wishes to your loved ones, and the need to make sure it is current on a periodic basis. People seem to behave that a will is something merely done for oneself. The reality it is done for your loved ones and it plays a significant role in making sure they stay loved ones after you leave. Contact your attorney about your will. If you don't have one, I can confidently suggest Shahara. Doing such could help you avoid some of the tragedies that Anna Nicole has faced.

The Rise and Opportunity of Independent Films

My pastor and several others who attend my church have been suggesting I see "Facing the Giants." During the Holiday Season, when it was still on the big screen, they told me I should take my family to it as the perfect "Christmas movie." This promotion of the movie went on for a few months and I finally broke down and rented the DVD over the weekend. I only wish I had gotten it earlier. This David and Goliath movie about over coming fear made all of us laugh and cry. I'm now planning on buying it just to have around the house for when the kids are looking for something to watch. Speaking of the kids, they talked about the movie the rest of the day and it kept all of them -- from the 8 year old on up-- glued to the TV the entire time. This is pretty impressive since the film only cost $100,000 to make.

That's right, $100,000, and here are a few other interesting facts about the movie:

* It opened up on only 441 screens nationwide (a fraction of the number that most movies enjoy)

* Only 3 other movies in the top ten had higher revenues that weekend

* The film grossed over $10,000,000 -- a huge return on the investment

This isn't the only independent film surprise out there, there is also the far better known Little Miss Sunshine. It cost only $8 million to make, but grossed over $60 million in 6 months. Furthermore, this delightful dark comedy (a strange, but true, combination) has been nominated for virtually every award under the sun and has won many of them. Just last night Alan Arkin won for best supporting actor and original screenplay.

Another sign of the growth of such films, although admittedly only from personal experience, is the number of people I know in the film production business (mainly commercials) who are in the process of making movies. I have met around 5 or 6 in the last few months and all of them are making their own, low budget, movie. I will say that as someone in business I didn't like many of their answers about distribution. A couple came very close to saying "if I build it, they will come." That makes for a great movie, but only if you can get it to audiences.

But with the huge potential return on investment, such projects are very worthy of closer examination. And in era where consumers seem to despise commercials, the product placement potential on an independent film is affordable and it is likely to be seen over and over again for many years to come.

I strongly suggest you visit with someone who knows something about these type of films. Business Show Advisor Andy Valadez is actually involved in these type of projects and is working with both film makers and those who finance such works. I suggest you visit with him about why such projects are exploding.

I only expect such films to continue to grow and movies with a strong moral message, such as Facing the Giants, are spreading like wildfire through viral marketing at churches and schools. I know this from first hand experience (see the opening sentence).

See How They Run: The First in a Series on the 2008 Elections

There are few things that have a bigger impact on a business's bottom line than government. In fact, government is a huge shareholder in virtually every business that takes huge amounts of money without helping a company's performance and actually undermines their productivity through excessive regulations and licensure laws (ask me how I really feel). Therefore, being informed about who is running is crucial in order to make sure that the people that are chosen do as little damage as possible. So over the next two years (can you believe it) I intend to do several articles on some of the dynamics of the race, discuss who is running, and in a very bold move describe very closely the next president even before the first primaries are held. In fact, you should be able to guess who that candidate will be by my description (just wait, I think it will be impressive).

In the posts on this subject that come I will discuss:

* Why they are running so early.

* Do candidates getting started this early weaken sitting incumbants?

* What role race, gender, and religion will play in the election.

* Who each of the candidates are (in both parties) and what their chances of winning.

* The role the Internet will play in these elections (like TV, a largely new media in 1960 destroyed Richard Nixon; the Web is knocking off candidates with tongues that slip and other behaviors).

I'm sure over time that several other items will come up and I would love to hear from others on other issues I should cover. With the possibility of the election of a woman, an African American, Hispanic, Mormon, and who knows what else I am missing, 2008 promises to be a very interesting year indeed. And even if we elect another white guy again this election will be historic because we will not have had an incumbant President or Vice President on the ballot in any Primary. We haven't seen that since 1928.

Fox Prepares for the New Business Channel

It has been recently announced by Fox News that is was creating the new Fox Business Channel, which is scheduled for launch later this year. Fox News has already enjoyed the most popular block of business programming with its "Cost of Freedom" shows between 9 to 11 AM on Saturdays (Central Time), now it hopes to provide quality business content 24/7.

To me it makes perfect sense for Fox to move in this arena. Unlike its chief competitor in this genre, CNBC, Fox is making it perfectly clear that it intends to be overtly pro-business. This has been the case on the Fox News channel from the beginning, I would only expect it to continue on in its channel for business.

The signs of the preparation are obvious as the impressive slogans "The Most Powerful Name in News" and "Fair and Balanced" are being seen less, while "Fox Means Business" is seen more frequently. They seem to be getting ready for their big play.

My question, as Fox gets ready for the move, is what businesses are going to get attention? CNBC and Bloomberg are clearly about big business and investing. Not that these are not important, but the vast majority of businesses in this country are actually quite small. I think there is a theory that small businesses simply wing it and the owners are too busy to spend time consuming business news. I disagree and believe that with the rise of content on the web that mirrors TV and the explosion of mobile devices that makes such easily accessible, Fox would do well providing content that appeals specifically to the small business audience. In addition to potentially winning the war on the editorial front, Fox could also win by providing a genre of business information on cable that no one else is doing. Obviously it is imperative for Fox to lead in the big business and investment areas -- after all big business audiences attract big advertising dollars -- but it also makes sense to go where others in TV have demonstrated very little interest, but the huge numbers of potential audience clearly deserves attention.

Bruce Kaufmann on "Making Your List and Checking it Twice"

Corporate Financial Management Expert Bruce Kaufmann has a new article and podcast at the Houston Business Show website. Bruce is doing an excellent job of bringing quality business radio programming to our website on a weekly basis. We are going to be adding new programming to the show virtually every week and over time this site will be a radio station of its own.

The following is an excerpt from Bruce's latest article (How are You Doing - The Financial 14 Checklist; follow the link to finish the article and to hear the podcast):

Financial management is about your performance, the results you produce, and the numbers you use to quantify your activities. As the financial manager of your company—whether you are the CEO, the CFO, the VP-Finance or Treasurer—you are going to interact with all other areas of the business: operations, personnel, marketing, production, and administration. You will play a key role in setting goals and measuring progress towards achieving those goals. If the company fails to meet its corporate objectives, you...

Bruce is one of the many reasons why the Houston Business Show is an excellent source -- 24 hours a day/7 days a week -- for quality business news and information. To receive a weekly email of updated articles and podcasts, subscribe to the free Houston Business Review e-zine by clicking here.

The Best Cities for Jobs

With unemployment hoovering around 4.5 percent, unemployment is relatively inconsequential in general. However, some cities are better than others. Recently Forbes Magazine listed the top 100 cities for jobs and I noticed they have a few things in common.

* They are in low tax states, such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Virginia.

* They are in the South and West. This is why these states are booming in population growth as well. All of the top ten cities are in the South and West (Hawaii being the far West). Some would call DC a northern city and although it has characteristics of such, the demographic includes Southern cities in Virginia. Furthermore DC is a boom city for jobs because of government, which can only happen in the nation's capital. Everywhere else, government is a job destroyer. The next ten cities are also all in the West and South except for number 11 which is made up of cities in Maryland. They, too, are near DC and make money off of big government. The South and West remain the primary job drivers through out the list. Florida is particularly strong, including Orlando, Florida (Home of Disney World, above).

* They are all mostly in states that are predominantly governed by Republicans in the State Houses. These Republicans largely have created jobs through their tax, regulatory, and licensure laws that are friendly to business. Some of these Republicans got beat in the last election cycle, I suspect that people that came from poor performing states inadvertently booted them out. I discuss phenomenon in a previous blog entry.

* These cities are growing rapidly. This could change if the policies in the states they are in change (as the governments have) and become anti-jobs.

I hope people take more than a casual look at the growth of jobs in this country and recognize what the cities (and states) that foster growth have in common. Furthermore, I hope governments practice the policies of low taxes, sensible regulations, and reasonable licensure laws. All of these are factors that contribute to positive job growth.

Kevin Price... A Great Face for Radio

On today's show I had Andy Valadez on as a guest and he took the liberty of creating a video and placing it on YouTube. This is the kind of innovative marketing that Andy is famous for and has created quite an archive on the Internet.

In it you hear an overview of today's program and it epitomizes the type of quality content we provide each week. For an archive of recent shows visit the Houston Business Show site and follow the links to our radio programs. While you are there, visit the Houston Home Show brought to listeners by UBuildIt.

As you can clearly see, I have a great face...for radio.

When It Comes to Marketing a Business, Stop Spinning Wheels

On this week's Houston Business Show I interviewed our new expert, Andy Valadez of Marketing Dynamics. One of the things he discussed is the on going problem facing businesses of "hit and miss" when it comes to marketing. Some people will throw several hundred dollars on newspaper ads here, a few thousand on TV there, and a few thousand more on radio, but have little or nothing to show for it. Many businesses know why they got into the business they are in and think customers will naturally follow. It doesn't work that way in the real world, that is why you need serious marketing assistance.

Consultants like Andy Valadez build a foundation of marketing that makes sense for the particular business in question. They are strategic thinkers who know that PR, advertising, and sales are all mere pieces that rest on the marketing platform. There are several quality strategic marketing firms out there and I have found Marketing Dynamics to be one of the best for meeting the needs of emerging businesses. I encourage everyone to visit with firms like Marketing Dynamics and others to find the one best suited to meet a company's objectives and not spin your wheels with costly "hit and miss" approaches. I'm delighted to have Andy as a Business Show Advisor.

Business and Golf

One of my best friends, Kent Batman (an insurance executive I have known for over a decade), use to always tell me that golf is good for business. "Some of the best deals are made on a golf course," he would tell me. He is a big reason why I play today. With a 3 handicap, I actually saw him make some testosterone driven wagers. "If I win the most holes, you do the deal. If you win the most holes, I leave you alone and buy you dinner." He won those deals handily and I stood in awe. Than there is my skills. I have a 30+ handicap and my deals go something like this, "if you win the most holes you still do the deal for me and if I win the most holes, they name a national holiday after me." If that did happen, I'm sure it would be "April Fools." Some how, I can't get anyone to make such a deal. Yet, I am still on the course and I love it.

Today I went golfing with my oldest son. Neither of us have been out all year because of how terrible the weather has been here in Texas thus far, so we were actually worse than usual. The only thing more terrible than the quality of the game is our golf etiquette. "Dude, your ball is in my way, go ahead and putt it in." "'Hey, quick, what is that thing you are suppose to yell when you hit the ball...', 'Wow, you almost hit that guy!" "'What does that 90 degree stand for and is it okay to actually drive this cart where we putt...' 'Oh, you ran over the flag again!'" It is really almost scary. But we still have fun.

I think it still helps me in business, even if not in making deals. I find myself much more relaxed after 14 holes (each hole takes a long time for us, rarely do we have enough sunlight to make it to 18). I have a clearness in my mind as I swing that club that I don't have at any other time. I can't think of anything or I'll miss the ball; but I need to think of how to hit it well enough to get it where I want it to go. I guess that will come with experience. After all, I have only been playing for around three years. Golf helps clear my head so I can be at my best when in comes to business and it reminds me that I certainly still need to work for a living.

The Incredible Shrinking Magazine

Let me just start by stating that I love magazines (I actually have 6 or 7 subscriptions). For many years I wanted to eventually have a magazine of my own. In spite of the pounding that print has faced in general due to the Internet, new magazines still seem to be popping up, but their future is still doubtful since with every new one there are several that fail. I believe that magazines are shrinking, both in size and importance, and this is reflected by the following indicators:

• Cheaper than ever. The price of a subscription must be less than it costs to mail it, let alone print it. Magazines that people paid $20 to $30 a year 5 years ago, cost around $10. In fact, $10 seems to be the going rate for such publications. This is their desperate attempt to convince businesses of the large number of people that are seeing their advertisements. Magazines are finding it difficult to keep up with the growing online viewership.

• The number of pages are declining. I'm sure this is related to the number of ads purchased (there is a formula of number of ads, justifying the number of pages of content).

• Magazines play a copy cat role. Magazines are looking more and more like printed websites. Since you can access most sites for free and they have direct links to other articles, that can't bode well for magazines.

• The growth of the "third screen" (mobile devices) makes it possible for people to access numerous "magazines" through out the day. Increasingly I use my pda to access articles. The content is free (at least what I read) and my selections virtually unlimited.

Still, I love magazines and I would not be surprised if I increase my subscriptions (since they practically give them away). But an ominous cloud hangs over the future of all print publications.

The "Today Show" Prepares to Become the "All Day Show"

We were recently informed that NBC's popular Today Show was about to add a fourth hour and, if it keeps it up, make take the rest of the day time programming (that is wild speculation on my part). The show consistently (as in years) remains the most popular each and every quarter, and since its parent company (GE see photo) has interests in virtually every type of business, the show is actually a very elaborate infomercial (an idea I discussed in the past), why wouldn't it move to all day? Millions sitting there being sold the latest product or service from the mind of GE, how can they not love such?

But they are getting prepared for the next hour by doing something I have never noticed as a regular Today watcher -- they are replaying stories later in the program from earlier in the show. They are recycling content. They may have done such before, but it flew past me. I guess they figure that, if we are willing to watch hours of infomercial, we might want to see the same things repeatedly on the same program. Those people are brilliant!

In the 1990s Today tried an idea called "Later Today" and it was a complete wash. In fact, I think it only survived a couple of months. The program was an hour or so after Today ended and had completely different personalities. Obviously, if the extended Today is going to work, it is going to have to be seamless. It is already the longest daily morning show of the networks, the bet is that it can be longer still and successful. This is something we will have to wait until September to see.

Newsweek Shamelessly Exploits Troops

While US forces continues to fight terrorism in the Middle East, Newsweek Magazine waged a war of exploitation on our troops. The above 12 American soldiers -- well trained volunteers who were defending our country in Iraq -- were killed when their helicopter was shot down in the conflict.

Without regard to the personal opinions of each of these people or their families, Newsweek has made them the poster children of the horrors of this war. The magazine explains the profound personal impact this lost has in its slow continuous drum beat against this war. This is just one more example of how irresponsible the media is and how consumers of the news needs to hold them accountable. In truth, people are doing just that by continuing to vote with their remotes for more conservative channels such as Fox News. Meanwhile, NBC, the recently deemed "most liberal" network by many conservative watch dog organizations, has seen a nose dive in its ratings with ABC's Charlie Gibson over taking the long popular Brian Williams of the Peacock Network in recent ratings.

I hope people keep taking a stand for our troops and against terror. I hope they are conscious about every media decision they make.

What Advertisers Could Learn from Super Bowl Commercials

I know, I'm running a little behind, but ever since the Super Bowl I have wanted to comment on an observation I have made. An observation that might unlock the secret to successful television advertising. Although recent surveys have indicated that more people watched this year for the game rather than the commercials, commercials have been a substantial driver for the big game for several years. The question is, why?

The reasons we see, read, and hear about in the news is that the companies save their best for this special occasion. We also hear about the huge amount of money being spent on these particular commercials. All of these may be true, but there is one thing that stands head and shoulders above these others -- the commercials during the Super Bowl are virtually all original and are seen for the first time during the game. Other than a few "sneak previews" in the weeks proceeding, the spots during this game have never been seen before. This is a concept that commercials can and, in my opinion, should apply as much of possible throughout the year.

Currently, two of the more successful ad campaigns are the spots for Geico and Aflac. Geico, with its current "caveman" campaign (see photo above) is providing a continuous story line that people enjoy following. Meanwhile, Aflac's spots with the duck remind me of a book a little kid would read, with each spot having a completely different storyline. What they have in common is that they both compel the viewer to check out the spot and to see what is going on in the lives of the primary characters. They are, essentially, very short TV programs with heavy product placement. The caveman is now taking his anguish of being made fun of in the Geico commercials to a therapists (the theme of the spots are that getting a rate is so easy, "even a caveman can do it") and has even defended his species on a news program. We all want to know what is going to happen next. These companies incorporate "Super Bowl" originality on an on going basis.

I believe companies should learn from Geico, Aflac, and the Super Bowl. Companies might want to turn to TV show writers or create an online forum where people could submit story ideas and make the commercials actually "customer driven." The latter could be very affordable and make perfect sense in the "YouTube" world in which we live. Consumers are very tough on media these days. They are not going to patiently trade time for programming, especially since they can increasingly get their content free online. If commercials are going to survive, they are going to have to give viewers a reason to watch.

The Arrogance of Air Pelosi

"The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt." Marcus Tullius Cicero, circa 63 B.C.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promised to make the concerns of "the people" her first priority as the first Democrat Speaker of the House since the early 1990s. Most political observers assumed that these people were the poor and disenfranchised. However, her recent demands for what is essentially a 757 jet to meet her travel needs, makes her appear like just another political boss. Her new plane, according to Fox News, will cost approximately $15,000.00 an hour to fly and will seat over 150 passengers.

This stands in stark contrast to the plane former Speaker Dennis Hastert use to fly -- the 12-seat Gulfstream 3 jet the government provided. Remember, if you will, that Hastert was also a really big guy. His flights cost a fraction of the projected $300,000.00 a flight that Pelosi will be expecting. That will translate into over $15 million a year.

Pelosi has done nothing but complained about government spending being out of control and the government being out of touch with the people. She could take a giant step in the direction of restoring responsibility and even humility to government by taking a different approach to her transportation needs.

In Spite Being Marketed as "New", Obama Sounds Like Old Time Democrat

If you were listening to a radio and the voice didn't tune in very well and sounded distorted, Sen. Barack Obama's announcement could easily be confused with a campaign speech from Jesse Jackson's earlier failed campaigns. Obama talks about a "new day" and a "new chapter" in our history, but his rhetoric is largely stuck in America's past.

He discusses racism and discrimination as if it were as prominent today as when he was born in the 1960s. Frankly, his neighborhood must have been much rougher than mine because we were born the same year and this little white boy's best friend was an African American named Joe Cosby through most of our elementary years. Marty White became one of my best friends in Junior High and he, too, was African American. I'm not saying that America hasn't struggled with racism, but I get the sense that many African Americans of a liberal persuasion want to throw our grandparents racism in our face as means of using guilt to get their ends. Obama is going to find this a dangerous and unproductive trail to take, in my opinion. He needs to become a candidate for all the people and not a man looking for revenge from the past.

His views of the economy are stuck in the past as well. Thomas Friedman has persuasively pointed out that "the world is flat," which means that through technology anyone in the world can compete with anyone else. That is why China and India have become such major economic players in the last few years. Obama acts as though he doesn't live in the same world as we do. He attacks free trade, argues for raising salaries to artificial highs, and taxing businesses into oblivion. Unfortunately, in our world, that would translate to shabby American products, the exportation of jobs, and the demise of job creation. The world we live in requires being competitive, not living in a fantasy world of how it "should" be.

Furthermore, Obama wants to talk about socialized medicine (AKA, universal health care) as a panacea to our medical crisis. There is no doubt we need people covered, but shifting it to government only means that health care will be plagued with shortages and there will be reduced accountability (good luck suing the government for their medical mistakes). My grandfather and aunt died in England waiting for treatment thanks to socialized medicine and that is a common stated cause in countries that use such a system. Obama's proposal is the same Ted Kennedy advocated in the 1960s and there is nothing new to it. An innovative approach would be one that gives 100 percent tax credits for individuals to get their own coverage, even earned income credit for some (meaning they get money directly back for their purchase), the creation of policies with high deductibles and additional tax savings for taking annual visits (prevention is crucial), and other policies that restore responsibility where it belongs (which is on individuals).

Finally, his anti-war rhetoric is a flashback to the 1960s and the Vietnam War. We are not fighting against a potential domino principle (the belief many countries would fall to communism if Vietnam fell), but a real threat. We were attacked by terrorists and many of the ones fighting our brave and trained volunteers there would normally be over here attacking public schools and hospitals if we haven't moved the theater of the war to the Middle East. We didn't start this war and we are very naive to think we can ended by moving troops out of there and over here. There is little question that our enemies will follow them.

There is nothing really new in Obama's rhetoric, it is the same old time liberalism stuck in the tragic decades of the past. We can't protect America's jobs, we have to compete for them. We can't stick our heads in the sand, we must fight for our safety and freedom wherever the war requires. Government cannot solve our health care crisis and many can argue it caused it; instead we need real solutions with more consumer involvement.

The US can't afford Obama's policies, neither in money nor human lives. There is nothing new about him and his approach to politics has been a dying breed for decades. It is my hope that voters can see through the style and the find the lack of substance.

Expect a New "Benchmark" Day: Gift Card Tuesday

Most people are familiar with Black Friday (the Friday after Thanksgiving when retailers finally go into the black because of the huge Christmas sales) and Cyber Monday (the Monday following Thanksgiving in which people make most of their holiday online purchases), now get ready for "Gift Card Tuesday." Tuesday was the day that I first heard reports of the impact all the gift cards sold in November was having on the economy (stores report the dollars in cards redeemed, not purchased). Those results were huge and actually turned the financial picture around for several retailers. This day was chosen by me because that is when I started to see stories on the impact; the economy watchers may connect the gift card impact to another day of the week. Regardless, this day will become huge in sizing up the economy's performance.

For decades the only measure of holiday sales that mattered was Black Friday. With the advent of the Internet we have seen the rapid rise of Cyber Monday. Gift Cards is now the new major player. Over time I believe gift cards are going to become the biggest factor, followed by Cyber Monday (with many purchases paid for with those cards) and then Black Friday. The Internet will continue to turn the economy -- and the world -- upside down.

The Rise of Pessimistic "Conservatives"

Having cut my political teeth on the philosophy of Ronald Reagan, I have a hard time seeing "pessimistic" and "conservative" in the same sentence, but such a group is quickly on the rise. What's most interesting about this group is that they claim Ronald Reagan as their philosophical ancestor. I think the former President would be rolling in his grave if he knew that those claiming his mantle have become xenophobic about immigration and anti-free trade. But those are the exact positions many on the Right are proclaiming.

Pat Buchanan was the first conservative to get on this bandwagon back in 1992 when he ran as an alternative to Bush I and in direct opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement. At the time, only hard left, pro-labor, candidates (remember Dick Gephardt) adhered to such positions. Slowly, but surely, it is becoming conservative dogma. I'm afraid that, in another decade or two, it will be on the same level of common held Republican beliefs as tax cuts generally are. Unfortunately, undermining free trade has a very different result than cutting taxes.

The reason people are opposed to free trade is because other countries (whom we trade with) don't practice it and it results in the "exportation" of jobs. There is no doubt that other countries are protectionist, but those countries suffer from extremely high prices and fewer choices than we enjoy. Are you ready to pay multiples more for the type of goods we buy from China in order to artificially prop up the prices of goods from more friendly nations? Punishing our trade partners with tariffs or quotas, punishes our consumers more than it hurts competitive nations and it leads to a reduction in the quality of goods we produce while "enjoying" such "protection." People advocate eliminating free trade because of "jobs" being exported to these countries? What jobs? The unemployment is this country is 4.5 percent, which is considered almost zero (four percent is the actual number) by most economists when you factor in voluntary unemployment, illegal activity, seasonal unemployment, etc. Protectionism will not only fail to protect jobs, but destroy them; because so many jobs (sales, marketing, legal, import, etc.) are created by trade into this country. In the end, attacking free trade will attack our prosperity and our jobs.

Regarding immigration, I understand the concern of conservatives wanting to protect our country, but te populist view does nothing to help the problems coming from it. The problem is that the system doesn't offer hope to people who want to contribute to this nation of immigrants, much opportunity to do so legally. Rather, they force people underground and allows those of us who have been here longer to act holier than thou and call them criminals. I, in particular, find this offensive. My mother was born and raised in England, met my father during World War II and came to this country, eventually giving birth to me. I know I'm the child of an immigrant. It just happens I'm one that our country finds attractive. You, too, are a descendent of immigrants unless you are a Native American. It is by luck I'm a citizen of the greatest country of the world, not by any effort on my part. We must offer opportunities to others, but they must make sense. Here are a few ideas:

* Require people to be in this country for an extended period time (minimum of ten years) before they are allowed to become citizens. This, in my opinion, should be the case regardless of where they come from.

* Provide a fast track program for those from foreign countries willing to serve in our military. Over 60,000 people serve in the US military from foreign countries. That kind of sacrifice deserves special consideration. We should consider expanding this program, especially during these times.

* Allow a long term separate status of people who never get citizenship, but work, send some money home, and eventually return there. That is the desire of many, if not most of them.

* Curtail welfare programs for immigrants, placing severe restrictions.

* Move away from an income tax and go towards a consumption tax, to make sure everyone is paying for the blessings of liberty with every purchase they make.

These are just a few things we can do to keep valuable labor important to this country (again, at 4.5 percent unemployment, there are many jobs Americans don't want to do) here, without compromising our security. In fact, it will make us more secure than ever to know who these persons are, where they live, and what they are doing here. America is a nation of immigrants. Reforms like this will make them legal ones.

Serious Blow to NASA

It is a shame on every level. A talented and brilliant astronaut and mother being accused of attempted murder and attempted to kidnap. It is also a shame that NASA will, in a way, be incriminated by its association with Lisa Nowak. The fact that the agency doesn't do periodic psychological evaluations (Nowak hasn't had one in 10 years, according to various news sources) is already shedding a negative light on NASA.

NASA has been the one institution that has been largely free of scandal among its representatives. Postal employees (those heroically seen delivering our mail against snow, rain, etc.) went "postal" decades ago and we are, sadly, no longer surprised by the occasional shooting at one of their locations. Teachers, known as one of the cornerstones of a community, have become popular fodder of porn magazines and America's Most Wanted. But astronauts have remained heroes.

I remember growing up in the 1960s and 70s and school coming to a complete halt around midday as we gathered into a large room and watched a space walk or a man on the moon. One time they even served hot dogs! It doesn't get much more American than that. One of my proudest moments I have had as an adult was spending time with Alan Shepard (a very good friend of a friend) who was the only man to golf on the moon. Since that time NASA itself has faced its share of disasters, but astronauts themselves have represented the agency with dignity. I'm afraid Nowak has affected that perception.

I, for one, still know great teachers. I have family that worked in the postal service and know they represented their agency well. I think it is important to size up individuals and not allow the negative actions of one reflect negatively on the many. Finally, I think we should keep this woman in all of our thoughts. She was clearly well accomplished and simply reached an emotional or pyschological state of disaster.

New Website Supports the Houston Business Show

I'm proud to announce the creation of a new website, being launched today, supporting the Houston Business Show (Monday at 1 PM on CNN 650). Called HoustonBusinessShow.com, this website is more that the typical page devoted to advertisers and show promotion. Rather, it is a radio program of its own, entirely online.

The Houston Business Show, Monday at 1 PM on CNN 650 is the longest running program on that station. Although the show covers a great deal of information one hour each week, it is really only scratching the surface. Our new podcasts will regularly add hours of new programs, on numerous business and lifestyle related topics, that will keep listeners informed. Over time there will be new podcasts added daily and it will operate like a radio station of its own.

Spend some time at the site and visit our newest personalities -- Bruce Kaufmann (Kaufmann Capital, expert on corporate financial management), Noel Halgreen (life style editor with Sona Med Spa), Cathy Stucker (Content for marketing expert), and more. The best way to keep up to date of the changes that are being made is to subscribe to the Houston Business Review newsletter at HoustonBusiness.com.

We hope you enjoy it and if you would like to learn how to participate as an expert, contact us at kj_hbr@sbcglobal.net. This website will be creating numerous opportunities to get their business message to larger audiences.

Winter Blast Puts a Chill on Global Warming

"The Coldest Temperatures in a Decade" was a lead story on the Fox News Channel this morning, describing the weather in the Midwest and Northeast. Later the announcer described the freezing temperatures in the New England area as "deadly."

The big discussion, when it comes to the environment, is that Global Warming is a "fact" and should not be disputed. Furthermore, the ones who caused it are the "industrialized nations who continue to use carbon fuels as we move rapidly to our demise." These are the stories we see and hear daily and the message our children get in the classroom as if it were gospel. However, a few decades ago, these same forces were concerned about Global Freezing. They claimed we were facing a future ice age, unless we turn around our energy and environmental policies.

The truth is, no one appears to know definitively what is happening and what needs to be done to "stop" it. Some scientists, like Richard Lindzen of MIT believes the changes of temperature are cyclical and have gone on for centuries. Many scientists who are pushing global warming make a living off of their alarmist announcements, because every study that scares people justifies funding of another study that will scare people more. Imagine if a group of scientists received a grant to study the "problem" and came back with, "it isn't a problem." How likely will they be to get more funding?

The United States has seen a huge improvement in its environmental situation and energy usage over the last few decades. The real sources of pollution are the emerging economies of India and China that are building factories, but their technologies lag far behind. The "solution" to "global warming" being advocated by experts are policies that will make countries, including the US, more poor by excessively taxing and regulating industry. Such policies will damage both the economy and the ecology. We need to be very careful about how we "solve" this problem and make sure the cure isn't worse than the disease.

Katie Couric: In the News Again, And She Isn't Happy

I have been writing about the decline and demise of Katie Couric since she began her gig as anchor of CBS Evening News. Couric, who arrived at the network with much fanfare and a salary that is twice as high as her counterpart at ABC News (Charles Gibson) and three times more than Brian Williams of NBC. She has maintained a solid hold on third place virtually through out her short tenure.

Some are crying "sexism" and I actually projected that would play a role back in September when she started. The average viewer of a nightly news program is 60 years old and predominantly male. Such individuals may not be interested in getting their news from a relatively young lady like Couric. I argued back then that the viewer would be interested in hearing from someone more like them or the one who is like that smart older son.

Furthermore, the same demographic (male and 60) tends to be very conservative and Couric has made a career of showing her liberal preferences. I'll never forget her interview with Senator John Kerry (D-MA) when he ran for President in 2004. She was in awe of his "intelligence" and "charisma." I honestly expected her to jump in his lap! Much of the decline of Dan Rather was due to his obvious political agenda, such an approach wouldn't work with Couric either, regardless of how attractive audiences may find her.

In the end, there is little that can be done to save evening news, not even Williams or Gibson. It will likely always attract this shrinking demographic, because younger Accumulators (people in the prime of the career and taking care of children and parents) are getting their news online. Before long, relative "nobodies" will be doing the TV version and the "rock stars" of the industry will be exclusively on the Internet.

What I read: Webpronews.com, My Favorite Ezine for Web Professionals

I'm not much of a computer geek, but I'm hungry for information on the Internet. My favorite source is Webpronews. I love everything about it.

* It's free, which means it clearly fits my budget. They may offer another newsletter with a cost, but I haven't looked for it and I have been thrilled with what I have received to date.

* I love their subject lines. I get dozens of emails daily (actually close to 100), several of them newsletters. Most of them use their subject lines to state the name of the newsletter, so I have no idea what I will find in it. Webpronews does an excellent job of making me believe it is worth the effort to open. Currently I have a dozen titles in my inbox from them and many have not yet been opened, but they are all in there because of a compelling title. Some interesting titles include "Create your own Web office in 60 seconds," which I have no idea what that means, but it sounds quick and interesting. Another one is "Identify prospects while they are on your website," who wouldn't want that? Another is "Google to sell TV time online," which I'm sure will have an impact on every industry.

* I love the articles. They are short, concise and highly readable for non-techs like me. They recognize individuals are interested in the Internet, but not technically minded. Yet they are also smart in their writing and (from what I can tell) capable of appealing to any type of personality.

* Did I mention that it was free?

Go ahead and order it at http://www.webpronews.com/signup.html. I'm glad I did. By the way, for the cynics, this is not an advertisement, but comes from a desire I have had for quite some time to spread the good word on this great ezine.

Senator Joe Biden, Behaving Badly

Senator Joe Biden launched his very weak bid for the Presidential race of 08 with a splash and now he might drown in it. The senator from the small state of Delaware, with very little name ID, and even less hope of winning, appearantly wanted to make a big impression early on his campaign. Boy, did he ever.

Biden (D-DE) has served in the Senate for decades and had a reputation of being liked and intelligent (also extremely liberal), so when he described opponent Barack Obama (D-IL) as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy" to run for president, he raised more than a few eyebrows. I'm sure if he were a Republican, he not only would have been force to get out of the race, he would probably have to give up his seat in the Senate. It is just the way it is, I assume.

I'm sure he is sending notes of apology to Jessee Jackson, Al Sharpton and all the other blacks who have tried running for President in the past and is explaining how he "didn't mean it that way." I'm dying to actually hear an explanation of what he did mean. Biden didn't have much of a chance anyway, but this will likely finish him off as a serious contender in '08 (Democrats have short memories when it comes to their own, Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia (photo) was a member of the Ku Klux Klan).

The question is, now, why did he do it?

* Was it a desperate attempt to get headlines for a campaign that was lagging far behind from the start?

* Was it a back handed compliment to the Junior Senator from Illinois?

* Was it a pronouncement of frustration because Obama came from no where just a few years ago and is now the biggest star of his party? Meanwhile, Biden has been in the Senate for 35 years (making me 10 at the time he got there and making me feel very young). I think anyone could be jealous of a new comers "rock star" status being acquired in such a short period of time (OBama is my age and is in his first year in the Senate). This last choice would be my guess.

In the end, Biden is dismissing Obama as just another empty suit that is biting off more than he can chew. Taking such an approach with someone so popular in his party, makes Biden look like the poster child of sour grapes.